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J. N. Mutemi L. A. Ogallo T. N. Krishnamurti A. K. Mishra T. S. V. Vijaya Kumar 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2007,95(1-2):87-113
Summary This study examines the predictability of weather over several regions in Africa using a multimodel superensemble technique
developed at the Florida State University, which is an objective means of combining daily forecasts from multilevel global
models. It is referred to as FSUSE and up to 7 different models are used to construct the superensemble. The benchmark reanalysis
fields used are the precipitation data sets from CMORPH and all other global fields from ECMWF daily operational analysis.
The FSUSE works by using multiple linear regression to derive weights from a comparison of each member model forecast to the
benchmark analysis during a training period of the most recent 120 days, and these weights are passed to the forecast phase.
This procedure removes the bias of each model and allows for an optimal linear combination of the individual model forecasts
by taking account of the relative skill of each model to give a consensus forecast that is superior to the ensemble mean and
all the members.
Results show that bad models and poor analysis fields used during the training phase degrade the skill of the FSUSE. In the
forecasts of rainfall events over all regions of Africa, the FSUSE root-mean-square (R M S) error, equitable threat skill
score (E T S), and bias on the daily forecasts of rainfall were invariably superior to the best member model. The skills deteriorate
as the forecast lead time in days increases, with the degradation being most significant beyond day 3. In all cases, the bias
score of the FSUSE was approximately 1, while the anomaly correlation scores were to the order of 0.9. These scores indicate
the robustness of the FSUSE forecasts. Over East Africa, the FSUSE forecasts were consistent with the spatial-temporal pattern
of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the main rain bearing synoptic mechanism across tropical Africa. Thus, in addition
to superior forecasts, the use of FSUSE based data sets may provide a better understanding of the dynamical processes within
the ITCZ over the region.
These results could be further improved if the daily series of operational analysis had included gauge data and if the resolution
were higher. It is hardly possible to get uniformly consistent and continuous daily observations over these diverse regions
of Africa. However, given the availability of the satellite based estimates of daily rainfall, such as CMORPH and global analysis
that are exchanged very fast nowadays, the FSUSE scheme for numerical weather predictions (N W P) provides useful medium range
weather forecasts in real-time. 相似文献
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Joseph L. Awange Laban Ogalo Kwang-Ho Bae Paul Were Philip Omondi Paul Omute Monica Omullo 《Climatic change》2008,89(3-4):281-297
Recently, and perhaps most threatening, Lake Victoria water level has been receding at an alarming rate. A recent study suggested the possibility of the expanded hydroelectric power station in Uganda. However, since the lake receives 80% of its refill through direct rainfall and only 20% from the basin discharge, climatic contributions cannot be ignored, since the 80% water is directly dependant on it. It is therefore necessary to investigate climatic contribution to the declining Lake Victoria water level observed over a long period, i.e., 30 years. This contribution uses 30 years period anomalies for rainfall, river discharge and lake level changes of stations within Lake Victoria basin to analyse linear and cyclic trends of climate indicators in relation to Lake levels. Linear trend analysis using the Student’s t test indicate a decreasing pattern in rainfall anomalies, with the slope being statistically similar to those of water levels at both Kisumu, Maziba and Jinja stations for the same period of time (1976–1999), thus showing a strong correlation. On the other hand, cyclic trend analysis using Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT) shows cyclic period of water level to coincide with those of droughts and rainfall. The strong relationship between climatic indicators of drought and rainfall on one-hand and lake levels on the other hand signifies the need to incorporate climate information in predicting, monitoring and managing lake level changes. 相似文献
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Shem O. Wandiga Maggie Opondo Daniel Olago Andrew Githeko Faith Githui Michael Marshall Tim Downs Alfred Opere Christopher Oludhe Gilbert O. Ouma Pius Z. Yanda Richard Kangalawe Robert Kabumbuli James Kathuri Eugene Apindi Lydia Olaka Laban Ogallo Paul Mugambi Rehema Sigalla Robinah Nanyunja Timothy Baguma Pius Achola 《Climatic change》2010,99(3-4):473-497
Endemic malaria in most of the hot and humid African climates is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality. In the last twenty or so years the incidence of malaria has been aggravated by the resurgence of highland malaria epidemics which hitherto had been rare. A close association between malaria epidemics and climate variability has been reported but not universally accepted. Similarly, the relationship between climate variability, intensity of disease mortality and morbidity coupled with socio-economic factors has been mooted. Analyses of past climate (temperature and precipitation), hydrological and health data (1961–2001), and socio-economics status of communities from the East African highlands confirm the link between climate variability and the incidence and severity of malaria epidemics. The communities in the highlands that have had less exposure to malaria are more vulnerable than their counterparts in the lowlands due to lack of clinical immunity. However, the vulnerability of human health to climate variability is influenced by the coping and adaptive capacities of an individual or community. Surveys conducted among three communities in the East African highlands reveal that the interplay of poverty and other socio-economic variables have intensified the vulnerability of these communities to the impacts of malaria. 相似文献
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A sequential extraction procedure, using acid digestion in a CEM MDS-81D® microwave system, is reported for the investigation of trace and minor element associations in coal in (1) mineral phases other than pyrite, (2) pyrite and (3) the organic matrix. The concentrations of sulphate, pyrite and organic sulphur can also be determined by this method. The extract solutions from each stage are rapidly analysed by ICP-AES. The association of major, minor and trace elements with mineral and organic phases is suggested for a suite of certified reference coal samples. In stage 1, a significant percentage of the total Ba, Co, Cr, Cu, Mn, Ni, Pb and Sr was extracted suggesting an association with silicate, carbonate, sulphate and phosphate minerals for these elements. In stage 2, a proportion of the Cu, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn was dissolved implying the occurrence of these elements in pyrite. An association with the organic matrix is suggested for Cr and also for Ba and Sr in lower rank coals. 相似文献
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Dynamics of the East African climate 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
L. A. Ogallo 《Journal of Earth System Science》1993,102(1):203-217
Results of studies on regional climatic trends and the factors controlling the regional climate have been discussed in this
paper. Potential impact of impending climatic change on the natural resources and socio-economic activities has also been
projected.
Well-recognised systems which control the space-time variation of rainfall and temperature over the region include the space
time characteristics of (i) Intertropical convergence Zone (ITCZ), (ii) Monsoonal wind systems (iii) Subtropical anticyclones
(iv) Tropical cyclones (v) Jetstreams (vi) Easterly/Westerly wave perturbations (vii) Extra-tropical weather systems (viii)
Quasi-biennial oscillations and ENSO events with their telelinks.
No statistically significant trends have been observed in the inter-annual characteristics of rainfall at most of the locations.
Apart from urbanization signals from the large urban centres, no statistically significant trends have been observed in the
temporal temperature patterns over the region. Inter-annual variation of temperature is seen to be inversely associated with
rainfall which in turn is also associated with ENSO signals. However, data of mountain glaciers has shown depletion of glaciers
but, the river flow data has not shown any decreasing trend so far. The lake levels also reflect only the inter-annual variations
attributable to wet and dry conditions. 相似文献
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Natural Hazards - The socio-economic impacts of floods calls for improved understanding of flood drivers. While the large-scale circulation anomalies associated with rainfall anomalies is a... 相似文献
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In the tropics, unmonitored land use/cover types cause significant effects on the narrowing and widening of river channels which affects the integrity of water resources. River channel planform extent was characterized using Landsat images, while water and bedload samples were collected and analysed for a period of one year. The results revealed that in 1986, the channel planform covered 3.7 sq km in length than in 2013 where it increased to 4.2 sq km. Wetland (537.1mgl?1) and bushland (186.3mgl?1) cover types had the highest concentration of suspended sediments. Fine sand (0.25 mm), silty sand (1 mm) and silty clay (0.125 mm) bedload particle types dominated the riverbed along the channel from the sampled land use/cover types. The high concentration of sediments, bedload materials, bank instability, and streamflow were significant contributors to the narrowing and widening of the channel (p < 0.05). Agricultural land use was the major contributor of channel aggradation (0.8 m) and degradation (0.25 m) compared to tree plantations, bushlands, forest and wetland cover types. 相似文献
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In a pilot study three samples of diamictons from boreholes in the Dutch sector of the North Sea have been thin sectioned. In the thin sections the granulometry, structure and plasmic fabric of the diamictons have been studied. On the basis of this study two of the samples have been interpreted as flow tills, while one sample has been interpreted as a basal (lodgement) till. 相似文献
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Distribution and dispersal pattern of clay minerals in surface sediments, eastern Beibu Gulf, South China Sea 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
Clay minerology of sediments are useful in determining distribution,sources and dispersal routes of fine-grained sediments.In the present paper,clay minerals of surface sediments throughout the eastern part of Beibu Gulf has been investigated to reveal sources and transport of detrital finegrained sediments.Four distinct clay mineral suites were observed from cluster analysis of clay mineral compositions of the samples.From the distribution pattern of clay minerals,we conclude that kaolinte in the eastern gulf is mainly derived from South China Landmass;Smectite could not be transported mainly by surface current from north-western Hainan Island,and maybe minor portion of it from Red River;Illite is mainly transported by the currents from South China Sea.Chlorite has two sources,namely South China Sea and South China Landmass.The Zhujiang River derived sediments could not be one of the sources for the clay mineral here,because of very different composition and ratios.The distribution pattern of clay minerals in the eastern Beibu Gulf is mainly controlled by fine-grained sediment source and local currents.The Silt/Clay,Smectite/Kaolinte,and Smetite/(Chlorite+Illite) ratios could be used as indicators of fine-grained sediment dispersal in the gulf. 相似文献
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