共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 78 毫秒
1.
William Power Xiaoming Wang Emily Lane Philip Gillibrand 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2013,170(9-10):1621-1634
Regional source tsunamis represent a potentially devastating threat to coastal communities in New Zealand, yet are infrequent events for which little historical information is available. It is therefore essential to develop robust methods for quantitatively estimating the hazards posed, so that effective mitigation measures can be implemented. We develop a probabilistic model for the tsunami hazard posed to the Auckland region of New Zealand from the Kermadec Trench and the southern New Hebrides Trench subduction zones. An innovative feature of our model is the systematic analysis of uncertainty regarding the magnitude-frequency distribution of earthquakes in the source regions. The methodology is first used to estimate the tsunami hazard at the coastline, and then used to produce a set of scenarios that can be applied to produce probabilistic maps of tsunami inundation for the study region; the production of these maps is described in part II. We find that the 2,500 year return period regional source tsunami hazard for the densely populated east coast of Auckland is dominated by events originating in the Kermadec Trench, while the equivalent hazard to the sparsely populated west coast is approximately equally due to events on the Kermadec Trench and the southern New Hebrides Trench. 相似文献
2.
3.
4.
Tsunami Deposits 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
—Geological investigations of coastal sediments indicate that prehistoric tsunamis can be identified. Their characterisation has altered our knowledge of the past frequency and magnitude of tsunamis for different areas of the world. Yet there have been relatively few geological studies of modern tsunamis with virtually no direct observations of the processes associated with tsunami sediment transport and deposition. This paper discusses these issues and draws on the results of recent research to summarise our current knowledge on the nature of tsunami deposits. 相似文献
5.
6.
Field Survey of the 27 February 2010 Chile Tsunami 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Hermann M. Fritz Catherine M. Petroff Patricio A. Catal��n Rodrigo Cienfuegos Patricio Winckler Nikos Kalligeris Robert Weiss Sergio E. Barrientos Gianina Meneses Carolina Valderas-Bermejo Carl Ebeling Athanassios Papadopoulos Manuel Contreras Rafael Almar Juan Carlos Dominguez Costas E. Synolakis 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2011,168(11):1989-2010
On 27 February 2010, a magnitude M w?=?8.8 earthquake occurred off the coast of Chile??s Maule region causing substantial damage and loss of life. Ancestral tsunami knowledge from the 1960 event combined with education and evacuation exercises prompted most coastal residents to spontaneously evacuate after the earthquake. Many of the tsunami victims were tourists in coastal campgrounds. The international tsunami survey team (ITST) was deployed within days of the event and surveyed 800?km of coastline from Quintero to Mehuín and the Pacific Islands of Santa María, Mocha, Juan Fernández Archipelago, and Rapa Nui (Easter). The collected survey data include more than 400 tsunami flow depth, runup and coastal uplift measurements. The tsunami peaked with a localized runup of 29?m on a coastal bluff at Constitución. The observed runup distributions exhibit significant variations on local and regional scales. Observations from the 2010 and 1960 Chile tsunamis are compared. 相似文献
7.
A Revised Evaluation of Tsunami Hazards along the Chinese Coast in View of the Tohoku-Oki Earthquake
Huimin Helen Jing Huai Zhang David A. Yuen Yaolin Shi 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2013,170(1-2):129-138
Japan’s 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake and the accompanying tsunami have reminded us of the potential tsunami hazards from the Manila and Ryukyu trenches to the South China and East China Seas. Statistics of historical seismic records from nearly the last 4 decades have shown that major earthquakes do not necessarily agree with the local Gutenberg-Richter relationship. The probability of a mega-earthquake may be higher than we have previously estimated. Furthermore, we noted that the percentages of tsunami-associated earthquakes are much higher in major events, and the earthquakes with magnitudes equal to or greater than 8.8 have all triggered tsunamis in the past approximately 100 years. We will emphasize the importance of a thorough study of possible tsunami scenarios for hazard mitigation. We focus on several hypothetical earthquake-induced tsunamis caused by M w 8.8 events along the Manila and Ryukyu trenches. We carried out numerical simulations based on shallow-water equations (SWE) to predict the tsunami dynamics in the South China and East China Seas. By analyzing the computed results we found that the height of the potential surge in China’s coastal area caused by earthquake-induced tsunamis may reach a couple of meters high. Our preliminary results show that tsunamis generated in the Manila and Ryukyu trenches could pose a significant threat to Chinese coastal cities such as Shanghai, Hong Kong and Macao. However, we did not find the highest tsunami wave at Taiwan, partially because it lies right on the extension of an assumed fault line. Furthermore, we put forward a multi-scale model with higher resolution, which enabled us to investigate the edge waves diffracted around Taiwan Island with a closer view. 相似文献
8.
Kenji Satake Yuichi Nishimura Purna Sulastya Putra Aditya Riadi Gusman Haris Sunendar Yushiro Fujii Yuichiro Tanioka Hamzah Latief Eko Yulianto 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2013,170(9-10):1567-1582
The 2010 Mentawai earthquake (magnitude 7.7) generated a destructive tsunami that caused more than 500 casualties in the Mentawai Islands, west of Sumatra, Indonesia. Seismological analyses indicate that this earthquake was an unusual “tsunami earthquake,” which produces much larger tsunamis than expected from the seismic magnitude. We carried out a field survey to measure tsunami heights and inundation distances, an inversion of tsunami waveforms to estimate the slip distribution on the fault, and inundation modeling to compare the measured and simulated tsunami heights. The measured tsunami heights at eight locations on the west coasts of North and South Pagai Island ranged from 2.5 to 9.3 m, but were mostly in the 4–7 m range. At three villages, the tsunami inundation extended more than 300 m. Interviews of local residents indicated that the earthquake ground shaking was less intense than during previous large earthquakes and did not cause any damage. Inversion of tsunami waveforms recorded at nine coastal tide gauges, a nearby GPS buoy, and a DART station indicated a large slip (maximum 6.1 m) on a shallower part of the fault near the trench axis, a distribution similar to other tsunami earthquakes. The total seismic moment estimated from tsunami waveform inversion was 1.0 × 1021 Nm, which corresponded to Mw 7.9. Computed coastal tsunami heights from this tsunami source model using linear equations are similar to the measured tsunami heights. The inundation heights computed by using detailed bathymetry and topography data and nonlinear equations including inundation were smaller than the measured ones. This may have been partly due to the limited resolution and accuracy of publically available bathymetry and topography data. One-dimensional run-up computations using our surveyed topography profiles showed that the computed heights were roughly similar to the measured ones. 相似文献
9.
Regional source tsunamis pose a potentially devastating hazard to communities and infrastructure on the New Zealand coast. But major events are very uncommon. This dichotomy of infrequent but potentially devastating hazards makes realistic assessment of the risk challenging. Here, we describe a method to determine a probabilistic assessment of the tsunami hazard by regional source tsunamis with an “Average Recurrence Interval” of 2,500-years. The method is applied to the east Auckland region of New Zealand. From an assessment of potential regional tsunamigenic events over 100,000 years, the inundation of the Auckland region from the worst 100 events is modelled using a hydrodynamic model and probabilistic inundation depths on a 2,500-year time scale were determined. Tidal effects on the potential inundation were included by coupling the predicted wave heights with the probability density function of tidal heights at the inundation site. Results show that the more exposed northern section of the east coast and outer islands in the Hauraki Gulf face the greatest hazard from regional tsunamis in the Auckland region. Incorporating tidal effects into predictions of inundation reduced the predicted hazard compared to modelling all the tsunamis arriving at high tide giving a more accurate hazard assessment on the specified time scale. This study presents the first probabilistic analysis of dynamic modelling of tsunami inundation for the New Zealand coast and as such provides the most comprehensive assessment of tsunami inundation of the Auckland region from regional source tsunamis available to date. 相似文献
10.
在东海潜在震源区冲绳海槽假定了五个震源点,根据Steven地震海啸地震参数经验值作为初始条件,分别考虑6.5、7.0、7.5、8.0、8.5、9.0级地震条件下的30个震例,采用数值模拟的方法,对海啸在东海传播过程进行情境分析,特别是对上海沿岸地区可能会遭受的海啸灾害做了较为精细的研究.结果发现:小于8.0级的震例对上海地区几乎不会造成影响;8.0级震例只有最北端震源点震例会对上海地区有明显影响;8.5级以及9.0级震级基本上均会对上海沿岸地区造成较大的影响.特别是冲绳海槽北段9.0级震例可能会对上海沿岸局部地区造成危害,最大波高可达3.9m. 相似文献
11.
Tsunami Risk Management in Pacific Island Countries and Territories (PICTs): Some Issues, Challenges and Ways Forward 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The Pacific is well known for producing tsunamis, and events such as the 2011 Tōhoku-oki, Japan disaster demonstrate the vulnerability of coastal communities. We review what is known about the current state of tsunami risk management for Pacific Island countries and territories (PICTs), identify the issues and challenges associated with affecting meaningful tsunami disaster risk reduction (DRR) efforts and outline strategies and possible ways forward. Small island states are scattered across the vast Pacific region and these states have to varying degrees been affected by not only large tsunamis originating in circum-Pacific subduction zones, but also more regionally devastating events. Having outlined and described what is meant by the risk management process, the various problems associated with our current understanding of this process are examined. The poorly understood hazard related to local, regional and distant sources is investigated and the dominant focus on seismic events at the expense of other tsunami source types is noted. We reflect on the challenges of undertaking numerical modelling from generation to inundation and specifically detail the problems as they relate to PICTs. This is followed by an exploration of the challenges associated with mapping exposure and estimating vulnerability in low-lying coastal areas. The latter part of the paper is devoted to exploring what mitigation of the tsunami risk can look like and draw upon good practice cases as exemplars of the actions that can be taken from the local to regional level. Importantly, given the diversity of PICTs, no one approach will suit all places. The paper closes by making a series of recommendations to assist PICTs and the wider tsunami research community in thinking through improvements to their tsunami risk management processes and the research that can underpin these efforts. 相似文献
12.
The highly vulnerable Pacific southwest coast of Mexico has been repeatedly affected by local, regional and remote source
tsunamis. Mexico presently has no national tsunami warning system in operation. The implementation of key elements of a National
Program on Tsunami Detection, Monitoring, Warning and Mitigation is in progress. For local and regional events detection and
monitoring, a prototype of a robust and low cost high frequency sea-level tsunami gauge, sampling every minute and equipped
with 24 hours real time transmission to the Internet, was developed and is currently in operation. Statistics allow identification
of low, medium and extreme hazard categories of arriving tsunamis. These categories are used as prototypes for computer simulations
of coastal flooding. A finite-difference numerical model with linear wave theory for the deep ocean propagation, and shallow
water nonlinear one for the near shore and interaction with the coast, and non-fixed boundaries for flooding and recession
at the coast, is used. For prevention purposes, tsunami inundation maps for several coastal communities, are being produced
in this way. The case of the heavily industrialized port of Lázaro Cárdenas, located on the sand shoals of a river delta,
is illustrated; including a detailed vulnerability assessment study. For public education on preparedness and awareness, printed
material for children and adults has been developed and published. It is intended to extend future coverage of this program
to the Mexican Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico coastal areas. 相似文献
13.
Logic-tree Approach for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis and its Applications to the Japanese Coasts 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Tadashi Annaka Kenji Satake Tsutomu Sakakiyama Ken Yanagisawa Nobuo Shuto 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2007,164(2-3):577-592
For Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA), we propose a logic-tree approach to construct tsunami hazard curves (relationship
between tsunami height and probability of exceedance) and present some examples for Japan for the purpose of quantitative
assessments of tsunami risk for important coastal facilities. A hazard curve is obtained by integration over the aleatory
uncertainties, and numerous hazard curves are obtained for different branches of logic-tree representing epistemic uncertainty.
A PTHA consists of a tsunami source model and coastal tsunami height estimation. We developed the logic-tree models for local
tsunami sources around Japan and for distant tsunami sources along the South American subduction zones. Logic-trees were made
for tsunami source zones, size and frequency of tsunamigenic earthquakes, fault models, and standard error of estimated tsunami
heights. Numerical simulation rather than empirical relation was used for estimating the median tsunami heights. Weights of
discrete branches that represent alternative hypotheses and interpretations were determined by the questionnaire survey for
tsunami and earthquake experts, whereas those representing the error of estimated value were determined on the basis of historical
data. Examples of tsunami hazard curves were illustrated for the coastal sites, and uncertainty in the tsunami hazard was
displayed by 5-, 16-, 50-, 84- and 95-percentile and mean hazard curves. 相似文献
14.
Ken Yanagisawa Fumihiko Imamura Tsutomu Sakakiyama Tadashi Annaka Tomoyoshi Takeda Nobuo Shuto 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2007,164(2-3):565-576
The present study focuses on evaluation of the maximum and minimum water levels caused by tsunamis as risk factors for operation
and management at nuclear power facilities along the coastal area of Japan. Tsunamis generated by submarine earthquakes are
examined, basing literature reviews and databases of information on historical tsunami events and run-up heights. For simulation
of water level along the coast, a numerical calculation system should be designed with computational regions covering a particular
site. Also the calculation system should be verified by comparison of historical and calculated tsunami heights. At the beginning
of the tsunami assessment, the standard faults, their locations, mechanisms and maximum magnitudes should be carefully estimated
by considering historical earthquake-induced tsunamis and seismo-tectonics at each area. Secondly, the range of errors in
the model parameters should be considered since earthquakes and tsunamis are natural phenomena that involve natural variability
as well as errors in estimating parameters. For these reasons, uncertainty-induced errors should be taken into account in
the process of tsunami assessment with parametric study of the tsunami source model. The element tsunamis calculated by the
standard fault models with the errors would be given for the design. Then, the design tsunami can be selected among the element
tsunamis with the most significant impact, maximum and minimum water levels, on the site, bearing in mind the possible errors
in the numerical calculation system. Finally, the design tsunami is verified by comparison with the run-up heights of historical
tsunamis, ensuring that the design tsunami is selected as the highest of all historical and possible future tsunamis at the
site. 相似文献
15.
The slip distribution and seismic moment of the 2010 and 1960 Chilean earthquakes were estimated from tsunami and coastal geodetic data. These two earthquakes generated transoceanic tsunamis, and the waveforms were recorded around the Pacific Ocean. In addition, coseismic coastal uplift and subsidence were measured around the source areas. For the 27 February 2010 Maule earthquake, inversion of the tsunami waveforms recorded at nearby coastal tide gauge and Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) stations combined with coastal geodetic data suggest two asperities: a northern one beneath the coast of Constitucion and a southern one around the Arauco Peninsula. The total fault length is approximately 400 km with seismic moment of 1.7 × 1022 Nm (Mw 8.8). The offshore DART tsunami waveforms require fault slips beneath the coasts, but the exact locations are better estimated by coastal geodetic data. The 22 May 1960 earthquake produced very large, ~30 m, slip off Valdivia. Joint inversion of tsunami waveforms, at tide gauge stations in South America, with coastal geodetic and leveling data shows total fault length of ~800 km and seismic moment of 7.2 × 1022 Nm (Mw 9.2). The seismic moment estimated from tsunami or joint inversion is similar to previous estimates from geodetic data, but much smaller than the results from seismic data analysis. 相似文献
16.
采用球坐标系下非线性浅水波方程, 研究日本本州M9.0大地震引发的海啸对中国东南沿海的影响, 并计算了冲绳海槽构造带上3个不同段落可能发生潜在地震引发的海啸, 分析这些海啸与日本大海啸的浪高和走时关系. 结果表明, 日本地震海啸模拟结果与日本当地报道及中国东南沿海7个验潮站的报道结果相符. 冲绳海槽构造带中段可能发生的3次不同震级（M7.0, M7.5, M8.0）潜在地震引发的海啸到达中国东南沿海的时间比日本海啸提前约4个小时, 从震源区传播3个多小时即可到达华东沿海部分验潮站. 冲绳海槽M7.5潜在地震海啸在验潮站上计算的波高与日本海啸相当, 中冲绳海槽M8.0潜在地震海啸在大陈站的波高将超过0.9 m, 在坎门站波高将超过1.8 m. 北冲绳海槽的潜在地震海啸威胁主要集中在江苏盐城、 上海一带, 南冲绳海啸主要对台湾东北部和浙江沿海产生威胁. 本文对冲绳海槽构造带上潜在地震引发海啸的模拟结果, 可为中国东南沿海地区的防震减灾、 海啸预警提供有意义的参考. 相似文献
17.
A Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment for Western Australia 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
David Burbidge Phil R. Cummins Richard Mleczko Hong Kie Thio 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2008,165(11-12):2059-2088
The occurrence of the Indian Ocean Tsunami on 26 December, 2004 has raised concern about the difficulty in determining appropriate tsunami mitigation measures in Australia, due to the lack of information on the tsunami threat. A first step in the development of such measures is a tsunami hazard assessment, which gives an indication of which areas of coastline are most likely to experience tsunamis, and how likely such events are. Here we present the results of a probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Western Australia (WA). Compared to other parts of Australia, the WA coastline experiences a relatively high frequency of tsunami occurrence. This hazard is due to earthquakes along the Sunda Arc, south of Indonesia. Our work shows that large earthquakes offshore of Java and Sumba are likely to be a greater threat to WA than those offshore of Sumatra or elsewhere in Indonesia. A magnitude 9 earthquake offshore of the Indonesian islands of Java or Sumba has the potential to significantly impact a large part of the West Australian coastline. The level of hazard varies along the coast, but is highest along the coast from Carnarvon to Dampier. Tsunamis generated by other sources (e.g., large intra-plate events, volcanoes, landslides and asteroids) were not considered in this study. 相似文献
18.
María Teresa Ramírez-Herrera José Antonio Navarrete-Pacheco 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2013,170(6-8):1067-1080
The M w = 9.0 earthquake that occurred off the coast of Japan’s Tohoku region produced a great tsunami causing catastrophic damage and loss of life. Within hours of the tsunami event, satellite data were readily available and massive media coverage immediately circulated thousands of photographs and videos of the tsunami. Satellite data allow a rapid assessment of inundated areas where access can be difficult either as a result of damaged infrastructure (e.g., roads, bridges, ports, airports) or because of safety issues (e.g., the hazard at Nuclear Power Plant at Fukushima). In this study, we assessed in a day tsunami inundation distances and runup heights using satellite data (very high-resolution satellite images from the GeoEye1 satellite and from the DigitalGlobe worldview, SRTM and ASTER GDEM) of the Tohoku region, Northeast Japan. Field survey data by Japanese and other international scientists validated our results. This study focused on three different locations. Site selection was based on coastal morphologies and the distance to the tsunami source (epicenter). Study sites are Rikuzentakata, Oyagawahama, and Yagawahama in the Oshika Peninsula, and the Sendai coastal plain (Sendai City to Yamamoto City). Maximum inundation distance (6 km along the river) and maximum runup (39 m) at Rikuzentakata estimated from satellite data agree closely with the 39.7 m inundation reported in the field. Here the ria coastal morphology and horn shaped bay enhanced the tsunami runup and effects. The Sendai coastal plain shows large inundation distances (6 km) and lower runup heights. Natori City and Wakabayashi Ward, on the Sendai plain, have similar runup values (12 and 16 m, respectively) obtained from SRTM data; these are comparable to those obtained from field surveys (12 and 9.5 m). However, at Yagawahama and Oyagawahama, Miyagi Prefecture, both SRTM and ASTER data provided maximum runup heights (41 to 45 m and 33 to 34 m, respectively), which are higher than those measured in the field (about 27 m). This difference in DEM and field data is associated with ASTER and SRTM DEM’s pixel size and vertical accuracy, the latter being dependent on ground coverage, slope, aspect and elevation. Countries with less access to technology and infrastructure can benefit from the use of satellite imagery and freely available DEMs for an initial, pre-field surveys, rapid estimate of inundated areas, distances and runup, and for assisting in hazard management and mitigation after a natural disaster. 相似文献
19.
— The unusual tsunami generated by the July 17, 1998 Papua New Guinea earthquake was investigated on the basis of various geophysical observations, including seismological data, tsunami waveform records, and on-land and submarine surveys. The tsunami source models were constructed for seismological high-angle and low-angle faults, splay fault, and submarine slumps. Far-field and near-field tsunamis computed from these models were compared with the recorded waveforms in and around Japan and the measured heights along the coast around Sissano Lagoon, respectively. In order to reproduce the far-field tsunami waveforms, small sources such as splay fault or submarine slump alone were not enough, and a seismological fault model was required. Relocated aftershock distribution and observed coastal subsidence were preferable for the low-angle fault, but the low-angle fault alone could not reproduce the large near-field tsunamis. The low-angle fault with additional source, possibly a submarine slump, is the most likely source of the 1998 tsunami, although other possibilities cannot be excluded. Computations from different source models showed that the far-field tsunami amplitudes are proportional to the displaced water volume at the source, and the comparison with the observed tsunami amplitudes indicated that the displaced water volume at the 1998 tsunami source was ～0.6 km3. The near-filed tsunami heights, on the other hand, are determined by the potential energy of displaced water, and the comparison with the observed heights showed that the potential energy was ～2 × 1012 J. 相似文献
20.
Katsuyuki Abe 《Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors》1973,7(2):143-153
The relation between tsunamis and sea-bottom deformations associated with the Kurile Islands earthquake of 1969 and the Tokachi-Oki earthquake of 1968 is studied on the basis of a fairly complete set of seismological and tsunami data. The seismic results are included in the calculation of static crustal deformations. The calculated deformations are compared with the tsunami source area as obtained by the inverse refraction diagram, the first motion of tsunami waves, and the height of the sea-level disturbance at the source. It is found that such deformations as predicted by the seismic results can quantitatively explain the source parameters of tsunamis. These findings strongly favor the idea that tsunamis are generated by tectonic deformations rather than by large submarine landslides and slumps. This conclusion is supported by additional analyses for the 1964 Niigata, 1944 Tonankai, 1933 Sanriku earthquakes. For the 1946 Nankaido earthquake, the source deformation responsible for the tsunami generation is of much greater magnitude than that for seismic waves. 相似文献