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1.
国家气象信息中心(NMIC)和美国大气海洋局气候预测中心合作开发了"中国逐日格点降水量实时分析系统(V1.0)",并已在NMIC投入业务试运行。该系统基于我国2419个国家级地面气象站日降水量观测(08:00—08:00,北京时)数据,采用"基于气候背景场"的最优插值方法,实时生成空间分辨率为0.5°×0.5°的格点化日降水量资料。通过对汛期典型区域和单站降水过程的对比分析表明:该格点化产品的精度较高,能准确捕捉并再现每一次降水过程。误差分析表明:约91%的数据绝对误差小于1.0 mm/d。该产品在定量分析天气实况、检验天气气候模式精度、检验卫星产品精度等方面有应用前景。 相似文献
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《气象与环境学报》2016,(6)
利用国家气象信息中心基于最优插值法(Optimal Interpolation,OI)、ANUSPLIN插值法(AV 2.0)、普通克里格法(Ordinary Kriging,OK)的1.0°×1.0°与0.5°×0.5°格点化的1961—2004年中国区域月温度和月降水资料及1961—2004年美国NCDC的GHCN 5.0°×5.0°月降水资料,对中国大陆地区温度和降水不同插值方法空间插值数据的精度及时间序列进行了对比研究。结果表明:在1961—2004年平均气候态下,中国区域不同插值法插值后的降水和温度空间分布型较一致,年循环变化也较一致。在中国区域、东部区域和西部区域,OI与AV 2.0方法插值的降水场绝对误差分别为2.15 mm、1.28 mm和0.00 mm,OK与AV 2.0方法插值的温度场绝对误差分别为0.20℃、0.05℃和0.45℃。对于中国区域降水场时间序列,AV 2.0和OI方法插值的降水与GHCN不同季节的降水变化趋势较一致,且不同插值方法插值的夏季降水量差异较大,冬季降水量差异较小。1961—2004年AV 2.0与OI方法插值的降水场相关系数在0.22—0.98之间变化,冬季和春季降水场相关性较高,夏季和秋季降水场相关性较低;个别年份秋季和冬季插值后降水量的偏差稍大,最大偏差达3.08 mm,1961—2004年平均降水量偏差为0.64 mm。AV 2.0与OK方法插值的年平均温度差值小于0.54℃,且多年时间序列变化趋势较一致。 相似文献
3.
近50a中国降水格点数据集的建立及质量评估 总被引：11，自引：2，他引：9
基于2012年6月更新的高质量2 400个台站降水资料,采用薄盘样条法,制定了采用3个自变量(经度、纬度、海拔高度)、降水量开平方预处理、3次样条的插值方案,并引入数字高程资料,以减弱中国独特地形条件下高程对降水空间插值精度的影响,并对1961—2010年中国区域地面降水站点资料进行了空间内插,得到了中国地面降水0.5°×0.5°格点数据集。经数据集的质量评估结果表明:分析值与站点观测值均方根误差平均为0.49 mm,相关系数平均达0.93(通过0.01的显著性检验),夏季插值误差高于冬季,东南地区误差普遍高于其他地区。冬、春、夏、秋季绝大多数台站绝对误差在±10 mm/月以内。冬、春、夏、秋季分别有60%、82%、54%、77%的台站相对误差在±10%之间。插值后的格点化降水资料能够比较细致、准确地描述中国大陆年平均降水场的东南多、西北少的主要空间特征,但也平滑掉了范围很小的降水极值中心。台站分布越密集的地方,插值效果越好,并且最近距离小于40 km的台站插值精度较高,大于40 km插值精度衰减较快。 相似文献
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5.
气象要素是资源、环境、灾害以及全球变化等领域研究的数据基础,格点化数据在未来研究应用中显得日益重要。本文基于中国境内667个基本和基准地面气象观测站点的基本气象资料,使用ANUSPLIN专用气候插值软件对1961-2006年逐日气温、降水进行插值,并利用未参与插值的全国1667个加密站点对插值结果的准确性进行检验,同时与反向距离权重法和普通克吕格法等插值方法的结果进行对比。结果表明,利用667个站点使用ANUSPLIN软件进行逐日平均气温插值有92.0%的误差在2.0℃以内,75.0%的误差在1.0℃以内,0.9%的误差在5.0℃以上,平均绝对误差为0.8℃;对逐日降水进行插值,75.0%的误差小于5.0mm,85%的误差小于10.0mm,平均绝对误差为6.4mm,误差大小与降水量呈现出正相关性,对局地强降水的插值效果不好,这可能与参与局部拟合插值的样本数太少有关;同时,夏季的温度插值误差小于冬季,而冬季的降水误差小于夏季。将ANUSPLIN的局部薄盘样条插值结果分别与反向距离权重法和普通克吕格法的插值结果进行对比,显示ANUSPLIN软件的插值误差最小。结果同样表明,适当增加站点数量和提高DEM精度可进一步提高ANUSPLIN软件的插值精度。 相似文献
6.
引入地形影响效应的日降水量气候分析场,分别运用Shepard和最优插值(OI)两种插值方法对广东和广西2007年5月20日—8月30日汛期小时雨量计降水量进行插值,得到0.125°×0.125°分辨率的规范化网格资料。结果表明:无论是直接插值还是用降水比率(地形影响效应的日降水量气候分析场)插值,两种方法均能很好地体现广东和广西雨量计站点观测降水的季内变化和日变化特征。虽然用直接插值方法比用降水比率插值方法得到的降水空间分布更为平滑,但估值精度没有用降水比率插值方法高。通过交叉检验进一步表明,总体上OI方法优于Shepard方法,而考虑地形影响效应的降水比率OI方法为最优,能有效提高相关性,并减少均方根误差和系统误差。 相似文献
7.
GPS大气可降水量空间插值方法对比研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
对比分析不同空间插值模型对GPS大气可降水量的插值精度,并对插值误差影响因素进行研究.利用反距离权重法、全局多项式法、局部多项式法、径向基函数法、普通克里金法5种常用空间插值方法对SuomiNet 网GPS PWV数据进行插值,应用交叉验证法对比分析各方法的精度,得出5种插值模型均达到一定的插值精度.其中,普通克里金法和径向基函数法插值精度最高,全局多项式法和反距离权重法精度最低,而局部多项式法插值精度中等.对插值误差影响因素的分析表明,GPS站点密度越高、水汽值越低、水汽值变化程度越小,空间插值精度越高.研究成果可为大气水汽含量空间分布特征和规律研究,以及空间插值方法选取提供借鉴. 相似文献
8.
《气象与环境学报》2017,(1)
自动站降水资料的格点化是目前气象业务及研究亟需解决的问题,空间插值方法是数据格点化最直接有效的方法。本文选取3个降水个例分别作为大范围强降水、大范围弱降水和局地强对流3种类型降水的典型代表,采用8种常用的插值方法,设计3组试验,通过交叉检验对比8种插值方法降水的插值效果及站点密度对插值效果的影响。结果表明:高密度站点试验表明(站点平均距离约为9.0 km),8种插值方法降水的插值效果依次为CR、IW、NN、LP、KR、TL、MQ和SP,8种插值方法之间的差异小于样本间的差异,即插值效果主要取决于站点的分布而不是插值的方法。低密度站点试验表明(站点平均距离约为30.0 km),大范围降水个例(包括大范围强降水和大范围弱降水)插值的均方根误差(Root Mean Square Error,RMSE)显著增大,不同插值方法之间的差异也增大;而局地强对流个例中,插值后均方根误差增大幅度较小,不同插值方法之间的差异较小。利用CR、IW和NN等3种插值方法开展站点密度敏感性试验,试验表明站点密度提高有利于减小降水插值误差,但站点平均距离达13.0 km甚至更密时,降水误差减小的趋势变缓。 相似文献
9.
高精度的空间化气温信息对于区域热量资源利用和农业结构调整等方面具有重要意义。本文选取浙江省72个气象站点1971—2008年的年平均气温作为数据源,以地理信息系统(GIS)为技术平台,采用逆距离权重法、普通克立格、样条法和多元回归法等四种空间插值方法,对研究区年平均气温进行空间插值,通过预设的10个检验站点来对插值结果进行评估。结果表明:多元回归法的相对平均误差、绝对平均误差、均方根误差分别仅为0.010、0.173和0.221℃,误差均小于其他三种插值方法,插值效果最好,对于验证站点的年平均气温模拟最接近实际值。 相似文献
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The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s~(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics. 相似文献
12.
Fei LIU Chen XING Jinbao LI Bin WANG Jing CHAI Chaochao GAO Gang HUANG Jian LIU Deliang CHEN 《大气科学进展》2020,37(7):663-670
正The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth's climate and environment. 相似文献
13.
The moving-window correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the synchronous autumn precipitation in Huaxi region, based on the daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation data from 1960 to 2012. The correlation curves of IOD and the early modulation of Huaxi region’s autumn precipitation indicated a mutational site appeared in the 1970s. During 1960 to 1979, when the IOD was in positive phase in autumn, the circulations changed from a “W” shape to an ”M” shape at 500 hPa in Asia middle-high latitude region. Cold flux got into the Sichuan province with Northwest flow, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Western Pacific to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation increase in east Huaxi region. During 1980 to 1999, when the IOD in autumn was positive phase, the atmospheric circulation presented a “W” shape at 500 hPa, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Bay of Bengal to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation ascend in west Huaxi region. In summary, the Indian Ocean changed from cold phase to warm phase since the 1970s, caused the instability of the inter-annual relationship between the IOD and the autumn rainfall in Huaxi region. 相似文献
14.
Storms that occur at the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are of a bimodal pattern, which is different from that of the other sea areas. By using the NCEP, SST and JTWC data, the causes of the bimodal pattern storm activity of the BoB are diagnosed and analyzed in this paper. The result shows that the seasonal variation of general atmosphere circulation in East Asia has a regulating and controlling impact on the BoB storm activity, and the “bimodal period” of the storm activity corresponds exactly to the seasonal conversion period of atmospheric circulation. The minor wind speed of shear spring and autumn contributed to the storm, which was a crucial factor for the generation and occurrence of the “bimodal pattern” storm activity in the BoB. The analysis on sea surface temperature (SST) shows that the SSTs of all the year around in the BoB area meet the conditions required for the generation of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the SSTs in the central area of the bay are higher than that of the surrounding areas in spring and autumn, which facilitates the occurrence of a “two-peak” storm activity pattern. The genesis potential index (GPI) quantifies and reflects the environmental conditions for the generation of the BoB storms. For GPI, the intense low-level vortex disturbance in the troposphere and high-humidity atmosphere are the sufficient conditions for storms, while large maximum wind velocity of the ground vortex radius and small vertical wind shear are the necessary conditions of storms. 相似文献
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Observed daily precipitation data from the National Meteorological Observatory in Hainan province and daily data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis-2 dataset from 1981 to 2014 are used to analyze the relationship between Hainan extreme heavy rainfall processes in autumn (referred to as EHRPs) and 10–30 d low-frequency circulation. Based on the key low-frequency signals and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) model forecasting products, a dynamical-statistical method is established for the extended-range forecast of EHRPs. The results suggest that EHRPs have a close relationship with the 10–30 d low-frequency oscillation of 850 hPa zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north, and that they basically occur during the trough phase of the low-frequency oscillation of zonal wind. The latitudinal propagation of the low-frequency wave train in the middle-high latitudes and the meridional propagation of the low-frequency wave train along the coast of East Asia contribute to the ‘north high (cold), south low (warm)’ pattern near Hainan Island, which results in the zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north reaching its trough, consequently leading to EHRPs. Considering the link between low-frequency circulation and EHRPs, a low-frequency wave train index (LWTI) is defined and adopted to forecast EHRPs by using NCEP CFSv2 forecasting products. EHRPs are predicted to occur during peak phases of LWTI with value larger than 1 for three or more consecutive forecast days. Hindcast experiments for EHRPs in 2015–2016 indicate that EHRPs can be predicted 8–24 d in advance, with an average period of validity of 16.7 d. 相似文献
16.
Based on the measurements obtained at 64 national meteorological stations in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region between 1970 and 2013, the potential evapotranspiration (ET0) in this region was estimated using the Penman–Monteith equation and its sensitivity to maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), wind speed (Vw), net radiation (Rn) and water vapor pressure (Pwv) was analyzed, respectively. The results are shown as follows. (1) The climatic elements in the BTH region underwent significant changes in the study period. Vw and Rn decreased significantly, whereas Tmin, Tmax and Pwv increased considerably. (2) In the BTH region, ET0 also exhibited a significant decreasing trend, and the sensitivity of ET0 to the climatic elements exhibited seasonal characteristics. Of all the climatic elements, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv in the fall and winter and Rn in the spring and summer. On the annual scale, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv, followed by Rn, Vw, Tmax and Tmin. In addition, the sensitivity coefficient of ET0 with respect to Pwv had a negative value for all the areas, indicating that increases in Pwv can prevent ET0 from increasing. (3) The sensitivity of ET0 to Tmin and Tmax was significantly lower than its sensitivity to other climatic elements. However, increases in temperature can lead to changes in Pwv and Rn. The temperature should be considered the key intrinsic climatic element that has caused the "evaporation paradox" phenomenon in the BTH region. 相似文献
17.
Yuepeng PAN Mengna GU Yuexin HE Dianming WU Chunyan LIU Linlin SONG Shili TIAN Xuemei Lü Yang SUN Tao SONG Wendell W. WALTERS Xuejun LIU Nicholas A. MARTIN Qianqian ZHANG Yunting FANG Valerio FERRACCI Yuesi WANG 《大气科学进展》2020,37(9):933-938
正While China’s Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan on particulate matter since 2013 has reduced sulfate significantly, aerosol ammonium nitrate remains high in East China. As the high nitrate abundances are strongly linked with ammonia, reducing ammonia emissions is becoming increasingly important to improve the air quality of China. Although satellite data provide evidence of substantial increases in atmospheric ammonia concentrations over major agricultural regions, long-term surface observation of ammonia concentrations are sparse. In addition, there is still no consensus on 相似文献
18.
基于最新的GTAP8 (Global Trade Analysis Project）数据库,使用投入产出法,分析了2004年到2007年全球贸易变化下南北集团贸易隐含碳变化及对全球碳排放的影响。结果显示,随着发展中国家进出口规模扩张,全球贸易隐含碳流向的重心逐渐向发展中国家转移。2004年到2007年,发达国家高端设备制造业和服务业出口以及发展中国家资源、能源密集型行业及中低端制造业出口的趋势加强,该过程的生产转移导致全球碳排放增长4.15亿t,占研究时段全球贸易隐含碳增量的63%。未来发展中国家的出口隐含碳比重还将进一步提高。贸易变化带来的南北集团隐含碳流动变化对全球应对气候变化行动的影响日益突出,发达国家对此负有重要责任。 相似文献
19.
Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter. 相似文献
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Hourly outgoing longwave radiation(OLR) from the geostationary satellite Communication Oceanography Meteorological Satellite(COMS) has been retrieved since June 2010. The COMS OLR retrieval algorithms are based on regression analyses of radiative transfer simulations for spectral functions of COMS infrared channels. This study documents the accuracies of OLRs for future climate applications by making an intercomparison of four OLRs from one single-channel algorithm(OLR12.0using the 12.0 μm channel) and three multiple-channel algorithms(OLR10.8+12.0using the 10.8 and 12.0 μm channels; OLR6.7+10.8using the 6.7 and 10.8 μm channels; and OLR All using the 6.7, 10.8, and 12.0 μm channels). The COMS OLRs from these algorithms were validated with direct measurements of OLR from a broadband radiometer of the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System(CERES) over the full COMS field of view [roughly(50°S–50°N, 70°–170°E)] during April 2011.Validation results show that the root-mean-square errors of COMS OLRs are 5–7 W m-2, which indicates good agreement with CERES OLR over the vast domain. OLR6.7+10.8and OLR All have much smaller errors(～ 6 W m-2) than OLR12.0and OLR10.8+12.0(～ 8 W m-2). Moreover, the small errors of OLR6.7+10.8and OLR All are systematic and can be readily reduced through additional mean bias correction and/or radiance calibration. These results indicate a noteworthy role of the6.7 μm water vapor absorption channel in improving the accuracy of the OLRs. The dependence of the accuracy of COMS OLRs on various surface, atmospheric, and observational conditions is also discussed. 相似文献