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1.
近半个世纪以来气候变暖明显,全球过去50 a年平均气温线性趋势达到0.13°C/10 a,而中国近50 a年平均气温线性趋势几乎是全球的2倍,其中冬季增温速率高达0.39°C/10 a。中国的气候变暖对严寒和寒冷地区的采暖耗能无疑会产生显著影响。文章以中国《民用建筑节能设计标准(采暖居住建筑部分)》JCJ26-95中附录A所列的严寒和寒冷地区84个主要城镇为研究对象,分析了这些城镇1951年以来采暖期长度、采暖强度的趋势变化速率,结果表明,采暖期长度和采暖强度大多呈减少趋势,其中采暖期长度减少比较明显的是东北及内蒙古自治区大多城镇,减少速率在-5d/10a～-3d/10a之间;采暖强度减少趋势更加明显。为了研究采暖气候条件的平均状况,本文计算了最近30 a(1976～2005年)采暖期长度及采暖强度的平均状况,并与1951～1980年30 a均值进行了比较,发现东北地区大多城镇采暖期长度减少超过5 d;东北地区和内蒙古自治区大多城镇采暖强度减少超过200℃.d。对近30 a采暖期采暖耗煤变化率的研究表明:除四川省的康定外,其它城镇建筑单位面积耗煤量由于气候变暖采暖耗煤变化率均有一定程度减少,其中个别城镇减少量超过10%。 相似文献
2.
利用呼和浩特市1962—2007年逐日气温以及采暖期供热部门提供的相关参数,运用数理统计等分析方法,参照采暖供热等相关规范,综合分析了呼和浩特市采暖变化特征以及气候变暖对采暖能耗的影响。结果表明:随着气候变暖,呼和浩特市采暖期比实际采暖期缩短30d,尤其是在1988年气温发生突变之后,采暖期缩短趋势更加明显。采暖期能耗的高低与采暖度日和采暖期长度关系极为密切。近46年呼和浩特市采暖度日与采暖期长度均呈现显著下降趋势,说明呼和浩特市冬季寒冷程度减弱,寒冷期变短,如果采取措施可以有效降低采暖能耗。呼和浩特市采暖需求偏多年份88%以上出现在20世纪60—70年代,而约有85%的偏少年份出现在20世纪90年代至21世纪初期。 相似文献
3.
利用内蒙古地区58个站点1961—2008年逐日平均气温资料,用数理统计等分析方法,参照采暖供热等相关规范,综合分析了内蒙古地区采暖期各要素变化特征,初步提出了采暖初日、终日和采暖期能源需求预测模型,并经过检验与实况基本相符。结果表明:①近48年内蒙古地区采暖初日推后、终日提前、采暖期缩短,说明随着气候变暖,内蒙古地区冬季变暖,寒冷期缩短。②内蒙古地区采暖期要素的变化与纬度的高低密切相关。纬度越高,采暖期缩短越多,使表征采暖能耗多少的采暖度日值减少越明显,采暖期能源消耗越少,节能减排潜力越大。③随着气候变暖,内蒙古地区冬季寒冷程度和寒冷期变短,采暖能源需求量减少,采暖能耗降低,其集中供热强度和耗热量降低,从而可减少CO_2、CH_4、SO_2等温室气体的排放强度。④采暖起止日、采暖长度以及采暖期能源需求与气温变化密切相关。由此构建的采暖初日、终日和能源需求预测模型,可信度较高,可根据月动力延伸预报产品,提早做出不同地区采暖起止日期和采暖期能源需求趋势预测,减少能源的浪费,为供热部门科学决策提供参考。 相似文献
4.
《干旱气象》2016,(2)
利用1961~2014年(10月至次年4月)宁夏20个气象站气候资料,分析宁夏冬季采暖期的时空变化特征,以及采暖期内气候资源的变化特征及其对采暖强度的影响。结果表明:(1)宁夏由南到北采暖初日推迟,终日提前,采暖强度减弱;(2)与实际供暖初、终日期相比,北部引黄灌区采暖初日偏晚,终日偏早,采暖长度短于供暖长度;中部干旱带两者基本接近;南部山区采暖初日偏早,终日偏晚,采暖长度长于供暖长度;(3)随着气候变暖,近53 a宁夏采暖初日推后,终日提前,终日提前趋势较初日推后趋势更明显,采暖期长度缩短,北部引黄灌区缩短最多;整体上,采暖强度显著减弱,但2002年以后中北部地区气温降低,导致日平均采暖强度及采暖强度有增加趋势;(4)夜间升温对采暖强度减小的贡献大于白天升温的贡献;(5)近53 a日照时数和降水量变化对中南部地区采暖强度的影响大于北部引黄灌区;(6)气候变暖对减少冬季采暖能耗的贡献为12.8%~16.5%,但中北部地区2002年以后对减少采暖能耗的贡献有所降低。 相似文献
5.
采用太原市1951～2003年冬季采暖期逐日气温资料,应用气候方法分析了采暖期平均气温以及与能耗相关的采暖初日、终日、采暖度日等要素的变化特征.结果表明:采暖期气温存在明显升高趋势.而且在20世纪80年代末发生跃变;采暖初日在逐年推后,采暖终日的年代际变化振荡较大,90年代以来有明显提前趋势,采暖期在逐年缩短;采暖度日存在明显减少趋势.结合供暖指标,分别从平均气温升高、采暖期缩短及采暖度日减少等方面进行节能效应分析,指出有必要改变传统的采暖模式.城市采暖具有很大的节能潜力. 相似文献
6.
《青海气象》2010,(4)
利用青海省刚察县1961-2008年逐日气温资料,运用数理统计等方法,分析了该地区采暖期气象条件变化及节能潜力。结果表明,近47年来,刚察县采暖期平均气温上升,负积温减少,采暖初日推迟、终日提前,采暖长度明显缩短;采暖度日与采暖期平均气温关系密切,采暖度日呈极显著下降趋势,特别是1994年气温突变后,下降趋势更加明显,冬季寒冷程度有所减弱,能耗需求量减小;该县采暖能源需求异常偏多主要分布在20世纪60年代,偏多年份以70-80年代为主,偏少年份出现在20世纪80年代中期以后,主要集中在2000年以后;气候变暖使采暖节能率为7%,这对节约能源、减少大气污染和温室气体排放较为有利。 相似文献
7.
气候变暖对刚察县采暖气象指标的影响及节能潜力分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
利用青海省刚察县1961—2008年逐日气温资料,运用数理统计等方法,分析了该地区采暖期气象条件变化及节能潜力。结果表明,1961—2008年间,刚察县采暖期平均气温上升,负积温减少,采暖初日推迟、终日提前,采暖长度明显缩短;采暖度日与采暖期平均气温关系密切,采暖度日呈极显著下降趋势,特别是1994年气温突变后,下降趋势更加明显,冬季寒冷程度有所减弱,能耗需求量减小;该县采暖能源需求异常偏多主要分布在20世纪60年代,偏多年份以70—80年代为主,偏少年份出现在80年代中期以后,主要集中在2000年以后。气候变暖所致采暖节能率为7%,这对节约能源、减少大气污染和温室气体排放较为有利。 相似文献
8.
利用国家气候中心发布的中国地区气候变化预估数据集中的全球气候模式加权平均集合数据,分析了未来温室气体中等排放情景下(SRESA1B),青海高原不同地区未来气候变化趋势,并分析了2020时段和2050时段青海高原不同地区的气候特点,分析结果表明:2001—2100年青海各地气温均呈明显的增加趋势,全省平均增温率为4.09℃/100年,年降水量呈增多趋势,全省平均变化率为62.63mm/100年。与气候基准年相比,2020年全省年平均气温升高1.44℃,全省平均降水距平百分率为4.18%;2050年全省平均升温幅度为2.63℃,全省平均降水距平百分率为8.75%。由于目前全球气候模式的分辨率还较低,气候模式在诸多方面还有待完善,因此所提供的未来情景数据存在一定的不确定性。 相似文献
9.
文章利用巴彦浩特1954—2013年逐日平均气温资料,采用数理统计等方法,参照采暖供热相关规范,对巴彦浩特地区采暖期间平均温度、初终日、采暖天数、采暖期度日值的年际、年代际变化规律进行分析。结果表明：1954—2013年巴彦浩特地区采暖期变化趋势为初日推后,终日提前;采暖期天数、采暖期度日值呈显著减小趋势;气候变暖背景下,巴彦浩特实施弹性供暖以采暖期天数变化估计可比目前实际供暖方式节约采暖能耗7%～20%。建议巴彦浩特地区可采取弹性供暖的方式,合理规划,以达到节能减排目的。 相似文献
10.
对德州市197l-2010年采暖期间（11-3月）的气象要素进行分析,并将2007-2010年的逐日供暖资料（11-3月）及对应气象要素进行研究,表明：（1）197l-2010年德州市采暖期比供热部门规定的实际采暖期缩短lld;（2）采暖度日值与采暖期长度呈下降趋势,寒冷期有变短趋势;（3）气象要素和供暖指数密切相关,尤其和5日滑动平均气温、当日最高气温关系最为密切;（4）采暖期平均气温为明显的Hurst现象,气温呈上升趋势,由于气候变暖,德州市采暖节能率理论上可达6．8％,这对节约能源和减少温室气体排放有利。 相似文献
11.
The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s~(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics. 相似文献
12.
Storms that occur at the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are of a bimodal pattern, which is different from that of the other sea areas. By using the NCEP, SST and JTWC data, the causes of the bimodal pattern storm activity of the BoB are diagnosed and analyzed in this paper. The result shows that the seasonal variation of general atmosphere circulation in East Asia has a regulating and controlling impact on the BoB storm activity, and the “bimodal period” of the storm activity corresponds exactly to the seasonal conversion period of atmospheric circulation. The minor wind speed of shear spring and autumn contributed to the storm, which was a crucial factor for the generation and occurrence of the “bimodal pattern” storm activity in the BoB. The analysis on sea surface temperature (SST) shows that the SSTs of all the year around in the BoB area meet the conditions required for the generation of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the SSTs in the central area of the bay are higher than that of the surrounding areas in spring and autumn, which facilitates the occurrence of a “two-peak” storm activity pattern. The genesis potential index (GPI) quantifies and reflects the environmental conditions for the generation of the BoB storms. For GPI, the intense low-level vortex disturbance in the troposphere and high-humidity atmosphere are the sufficient conditions for storms, while large maximum wind velocity of the ground vortex radius and small vertical wind shear are the necessary conditions of storms. 相似文献
13.
Observed daily precipitation data from the National Meteorological Observatory in Hainan province and daily data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis-2 dataset from 1981 to 2014 are used to analyze the relationship between Hainan extreme heavy rainfall processes in autumn (referred to as EHRPs) and 10–30 d low-frequency circulation. Based on the key low-frequency signals and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) model forecasting products, a dynamical-statistical method is established for the extended-range forecast of EHRPs. The results suggest that EHRPs have a close relationship with the 10–30 d low-frequency oscillation of 850 hPa zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north, and that they basically occur during the trough phase of the low-frequency oscillation of zonal wind. The latitudinal propagation of the low-frequency wave train in the middle-high latitudes and the meridional propagation of the low-frequency wave train along the coast of East Asia contribute to the ‘north high (cold), south low (warm)’ pattern near Hainan Island, which results in the zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north reaching its trough, consequently leading to EHRPs. Considering the link between low-frequency circulation and EHRPs, a low-frequency wave train index (LWTI) is defined and adopted to forecast EHRPs by using NCEP CFSv2 forecasting products. EHRPs are predicted to occur during peak phases of LWTI with value larger than 1 for three or more consecutive forecast days. Hindcast experiments for EHRPs in 2015–2016 indicate that EHRPs can be predicted 8–24 d in advance, with an average period of validity of 16.7 d. 相似文献
14.
Based on the measurements obtained at 64 national meteorological stations in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region between 1970 and 2013, the potential evapotranspiration (ET0) in this region was estimated using the Penman–Monteith equation and its sensitivity to maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), wind speed (Vw), net radiation (Rn) and water vapor pressure (Pwv) was analyzed, respectively. The results are shown as follows. (1) The climatic elements in the BTH region underwent significant changes in the study period. Vw and Rn decreased significantly, whereas Tmin, Tmax and Pwv increased considerably. (2) In the BTH region, ET0 also exhibited a significant decreasing trend, and the sensitivity of ET0 to the climatic elements exhibited seasonal characteristics. Of all the climatic elements, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv in the fall and winter and Rn in the spring and summer. On the annual scale, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv, followed by Rn, Vw, Tmax and Tmin. In addition, the sensitivity coefficient of ET0 with respect to Pwv had a negative value for all the areas, indicating that increases in Pwv can prevent ET0 from increasing. (3) The sensitivity of ET0 to Tmin and Tmax was significantly lower than its sensitivity to other climatic elements. However, increases in temperature can lead to changes in Pwv and Rn. The temperature should be considered the key intrinsic climatic element that has caused the "evaporation paradox" phenomenon in the BTH region. 相似文献
15.
Fei LIU Chen XING Jinbao LI Bin WANG Jing CHAI Chaochao GAO Gang HUANG Jian LIU Deliang CHEN 《大气科学进展》2020,37(7):663-670
正The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth's climate and environment. 相似文献
16.
The moving-window correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the synchronous autumn precipitation in Huaxi region, based on the daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation data from 1960 to 2012. The correlation curves of IOD and the early modulation of Huaxi region’s autumn precipitation indicated a mutational site appeared in the 1970s. During 1960 to 1979, when the IOD was in positive phase in autumn, the circulations changed from a “W” shape to an ”M” shape at 500 hPa in Asia middle-high latitude region. Cold flux got into the Sichuan province with Northwest flow, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Western Pacific to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation increase in east Huaxi region. During 1980 to 1999, when the IOD in autumn was positive phase, the atmospheric circulation presented a “W” shape at 500 hPa, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Bay of Bengal to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation ascend in west Huaxi region. In summary, the Indian Ocean changed from cold phase to warm phase since the 1970s, caused the instability of the inter-annual relationship between the IOD and the autumn rainfall in Huaxi region. 相似文献
17.
Yuepeng PAN Mengna GU Yuexin HE Dianming WU Chunyan LIU Linlin SONG Shili TIAN Xuemei Lü Yang SUN Tao SONG Wendell W. WALTERS Xuejun LIU Nicholas A. MARTIN Qianqian ZHANG Yunting FANG Valerio FERRACCI Yuesi WANG 《大气科学进展》2020,37(9):933-938
正While China’s Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan on particulate matter since 2013 has reduced sulfate significantly, aerosol ammonium nitrate remains high in East China. As the high nitrate abundances are strongly linked with ammonia, reducing ammonia emissions is becoming increasingly important to improve the air quality of China. Although satellite data provide evidence of substantial increases in atmospheric ammonia concentrations over major agricultural regions, long-term surface observation of ammonia concentrations are sparse. In addition, there is still no consensus on 相似文献
18.
基于最新的GTAP8 (Global Trade Analysis Project）数据库,使用投入产出法,分析了2004年到2007年全球贸易变化下南北集团贸易隐含碳变化及对全球碳排放的影响。结果显示,随着发展中国家进出口规模扩张,全球贸易隐含碳流向的重心逐渐向发展中国家转移。2004年到2007年,发达国家高端设备制造业和服务业出口以及发展中国家资源、能源密集型行业及中低端制造业出口的趋势加强,该过程的生产转移导致全球碳排放增长4.15亿t,占研究时段全球贸易隐含碳增量的63%。未来发展中国家的出口隐含碳比重还将进一步提高。贸易变化带来的南北集团隐含碳流动变化对全球应对气候变化行动的影响日益突出,发达国家对此负有重要责任。 相似文献
19.
Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter. 相似文献
20.
Hourly outgoing longwave radiation(OLR) from the geostationary satellite Communication Oceanography Meteorological Satellite(COMS) has been retrieved since June 2010. The COMS OLR retrieval algorithms are based on regression analyses of radiative transfer simulations for spectral functions of COMS infrared channels. This study documents the accuracies of OLRs for future climate applications by making an intercomparison of four OLRs from one single-channel algorithm(OLR12.0using the 12.0 μm channel) and three multiple-channel algorithms(OLR10.8+12.0using the 10.8 and 12.0 μm channels; OLR6.7+10.8using the 6.7 and 10.8 μm channels; and OLR All using the 6.7, 10.8, and 12.0 μm channels). The COMS OLRs from these algorithms were validated with direct measurements of OLR from a broadband radiometer of the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System(CERES) over the full COMS field of view [roughly(50°S–50°N, 70°–170°E)] during April 2011.Validation results show that the root-mean-square errors of COMS OLRs are 5–7 W m-2, which indicates good agreement with CERES OLR over the vast domain. OLR6.7+10.8and OLR All have much smaller errors(～ 6 W m-2) than OLR12.0and OLR10.8+12.0(～ 8 W m-2). Moreover, the small errors of OLR6.7+10.8and OLR All are systematic and can be readily reduced through additional mean bias correction and/or radiance calibration. These results indicate a noteworthy role of the6.7 μm water vapor absorption channel in improving the accuracy of the OLRs. The dependence of the accuracy of COMS OLRs on various surface, atmospheric, and observational conditions is also discussed. 相似文献