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全球过去千年典型暖期温度空间格局重建 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
利用过去两千年全球变化研究网络(PAGES 2k network)最新公布的501条代用记录,重建了全球过去千年全年平均温度空间格局的演化特征,对比分析了中世纪暖期及其最暖100年与20世纪现代暖期、中世纪暖期和小冰期最暖30年与20世纪最近30年的年平均温度空间模态异同.结果显示,在世纪尺度上,现代暖期与历史上中世纪暖期的温度异常空间格局大致相同,变化幅度也在大部分区域相当,但从年代际尺度上,最近30年的升温比过去千年中世纪暖期和小冰期两个典型时期都明显.值得一提的是北大西洋中高纬度海温变化与上述特征并不相同,在年代际和世纪尺度上小冰期和中世纪暖期海温均高于20世纪.可能原因是大西洋经圈翻转环流在中世纪暖期、小冰期和20世纪现代暖期等3个特征时段对太阳辐射、火山活动和温室气体等外强迫的响应不同. 相似文献
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近千年全球气候变化的长积分模拟试验 总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3
近千年全球气候变化的长积分模拟试验是全球气候模拟研究的新领域,它不仅将现代器测资料与过去代用指标序列进行了有机的衔接,而且对过去百年和年代际尺度的气候变化可进行动力学解释,探讨其主要控制因素及其导致的区域响应差异。由于这类长积分模拟对计算机技术和气候模式本身的要求较高,目前能进行这类研究的国家为数不多。重点介绍了德国马普气象研究所的全球海气耦合气候模式ECHO G,以及利用该模式进行的千年长积分模拟试验结果。首先,应用全球120年的器测资料对模拟结果进行了检验,论证了该模型较强的气候模拟能力;其次,根据全球地表2 m气温的千年模拟结果,揭示了中世纪暖期—小冰期—20世纪暖期三段式气候变化时段,然后讨论了中世纪暖期和小冰期鼎盛期全球及中国的温度分布特点;最后根据对各控制因子的拟合分析与比较,初步揭示了近千年来的温度变化主要受太阳有效辐射的变化控制,而温室气体含量的增加对100年来温度的快速上升起着主导作用。
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中纬度亚洲地区存在主要受季风环流影响的东南部湿润地区(简称季风区)和主要受西风环流控制的内陆干旱区(包括青藏高原北部高寒干旱区,简称西风区)。根据对近年来新发表的气候变化记录证据梳理总结,发现西风区在中—晚全新世气候湿润,与亚洲季风在早—中全新世强盛的格局显著不同。过去千年的西风区中世纪暖期干旱,而小冰期相对湿润,与此相对,万象洞石笋氧同位素记录则显示季风降水在中世纪暖期时整体处于高值,在小冰期处于低值段。在近百年,尤其是近50a,西北干旱区湿度增加,而季风影响范围内的西北东部和华北等地变得更干。不仅如此,在分属西风和季风影响区的青藏高原北部和南部,年代际—百年尺度上降水变化也表现出反相位关系。据此我们提出,亚洲中部西风带控制区在现代间冰期从数千年到年代际的各个时间尺度上均存在不同于季风区的湿度(降水)变化模式,称之为现代间冰期气候变化的西风模式。 相似文献
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过去2000年全球典型暖期特征与机制的模拟研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
本文利用美国国家大气研究中心(NCAR)的通用地球系统模式(Community Earth System Model,简称CESM)的低分辨率版本(CESM1.0.3,T31_g37)在国际国内率先进行了多组过去2000年瞬变积分模拟试验,在与历史重建资料和观测资料进行对比验证的基础上,对过去2000年中的典型暖期(中世纪暖期与现代暖期)的特征和成因机制进行了初步探讨,结果表明:中世纪暖期太阳辐射加强是导致其“暖化”的主要原因之一,而温室气体浓度的激增是现代全球变暖的最主要原因;在中世纪暖期,自然因子(包括太阳辐射和火山活动)对降水量的影响之和比温室气体的影响高一个数量级;而在现代暖期,温室气体对降水量的影响比自然因子(包括太阳辐射和火山活动)对降水量的影响之和高一个数量级;在不同外强迫条件下的海表温度变化在热带太平洋区域截然不同,即自然因子影响下为类-拉尼娜态,而温室气体影响下为类-厄尔尼诺态;无论在中世纪暖期还是现代暖期,相对于1000～1850年的平均情况,沃克(Walker)环流均处于增强状态. 相似文献
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本文通过对青藏高原上所钻取的古里雅冰芯和青海都兰树轮高分辨率气候变化记录的对比,分析了过去近2 000a来的气候变化特征.结果表明:1)这两个地区过去2 000a来温度都在波动中逐渐上升,展示了气候逐渐变暖的趋势.进入20世纪以来,气候显著变暖,并有加速变暖的趋势;2)树轮和冰芯均明显地记录了小冰期的3次冷期,其出现的时间基本上一致.小冰期并不是过去2 000a来的最寒冷的时期.冰芯和树轮记录均表明公元初的寒冷程度要大于小冰期;3)古里雅冰芯所记录的温度和降水量揭示出,过去近2 000a来的降水和温度变化的总趋势是正相关关系;但在短时间尺度上,温度和降水的变化并不同步.这主要表现在两个方面,一是温度长期变化中的低频波动频率要大于降水,二是虽然温度和降水的变化在百年级时间尺度上有正相关性,但降水的变化要滞后于温度变化50～100a;4)同时周期分析表明,古里雅冰芯中的δ180和积累量以及都兰树轮记录的变化周期大多数与太阳活动有关,表明青藏高原地区冷、暖、干、湿变化的主要驱动力可能是太阳活动的变化;5)对这两记录的对比研究也揭示了气候变化的区域差异.如中世纪暖期在都兰树轮记录中很强而在古里雅冰芯记录中很弱,而都兰树轮记录中,中世纪暖期以后至1 800A.D.在波动中变冷,但在古里雅冰芯记录中这一时期在波动中变暖. 相似文献
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利用地球系统模式CESM的过去1500年气候模拟试验结果,分析了中世纪暖期和现代暖期中国区域温度和降水变化特征的异同,并对形成原因进行了初步探讨.研究表明:中国的温度变化在中世纪暖期和现代暖期有着显著的区域差异,且年代际变化特征亦不尽相同.现代暖期的温度存在一个明显的年代际突变,这一突变是由温室气体含量的变化引起的,且现代暖期温度变化的空间格局受人为因子影响较大.中世纪暖期温度变化的空间格局主要受太阳辐射变化的影响,其次是土地利用/覆盖和火山活动.中国的降水变化在两个增暖期其时空格局较类似,其主要模态均体现为西部与东部反相,华南与华北反相.影响降水变化空间格局的因子较复杂,各外强迫因子的作用互补. 相似文献
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《地层学杂志》2020,(1)
天山北坡受西风环流影响,是对气候变化反应最敏感的地区之一。但由于缺乏高分辨率的古气候记录,对该区域2000 cal yr B.P.以来气候演变过程的认识仍存在分歧,尤其是气候演化模式和水热组合方式等问题。为厘清上述问题,以伊犁盆地2400calyrB.P.以来的泥炭沉积剖面为研究材料,通过对其进行精确定年和高分辨率孢粉研究,重建了天山北坡2400 cal yr B.P.以来的植被和气候演化历史。结果表明:1) 2400 cal yr B.P.以来天山北坡气候经历了暖干―暖湿―冷湿3个阶段,并可与其他地区研究结果进行良好对比。2429―949 cal yr B.P.期间,喜光、喜暖植物含量丰富, PCA axis 1得分指示有效湿度偏低,气候以暖干为主要特征; 949―475 cal yr B.P.期间,区域有效湿度明显增加,气温较高,为中世纪暖期;475―301calyrB.P.期间的小冰期打断了天山北坡气候向暖湿化发展的趋势,此时段内以冷湿为主。2)天山北坡气候变化过程并不稳定,包含短期的气候突变事件,泥炭沉积物记录了以冷湿为主要特征的小冰期,可能是西风环流加强、西风带南移或北大西洋涛动负异常叠加,温度变低导致水面蒸发、植物蒸腾减少等共同作用的结果。 相似文献
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全球变暖背景下频发的极端气候事件,严重影响了经济社会可持续发展。研究过去人类活动背景下的气候变化特征可为预测气候变化趋势、制定应对策略提供历史借鉴。本研究选取福建梅花山国家级自然保护区山间泥炭岩芯(长度238 cm)119个沉积物进行腐殖化度分析,结合粒度和烧失量记录,重建近千年来福建地区高分辨率气候历史。研究结果显示,在东亚季风区的低纬亚高山山间盆地,泥炭沉积物腐殖化度越高,指示气候越冷干;腐殖化度越低,指示气候越暖湿。梅花山泥炭腐殖化度在980～1529 A.D.呈现低值(均值8.4%),指示中世纪暖期较强的东亚季风和暖湿气候;1529～1926 A.D.呈显著高值(均值24.8%),指示明清小冰期较弱的季风和冷干气候;1926 A.D.以来波动下降(均值22.8%),对应了现代暖期。梅花山泥炭腐殖化度记录与区域沉积记录显示出对东亚季风的同步响应。研究结果记录了小冰期的第二次和第三次冷期,分别为1589～1757 A.D.和1842～1926 A.D.。梅花山泥炭腐殖化度记录的近千年气候变化可能受太阳辐射、热带辐合带和厄尔尼诺/南方涛动等的共同驱动。 相似文献
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Paleoclimate research is essential to determine the natural variability of climate and to place the current climate change into its natural context. The current need is to generate the highest temporal resolution paleoclimatic reconstructions possible in order to assess the natural variability of the climate system, but also to test the ability of numerical models to simulate conditions different from the ones observed with the relatively short instrumental records. In this paper, we show that CAT-scan analysis of sedimentary sequences, with its 1 mm downcore resolution, can be used to identify millennial to seasonal cycles in sedimentary sequences. In examples from the St. Lawrence Estuary, Eastern Canada, spectral analysis of the CAT-scan data from Holocene postglacial sediments revealed millennial- to centennial-scale oscillations possibly associated with either solar variability, changes in relative sea-level or tidal amplitude. Similarly, spectral analysis of Holocene and Sangamonian glaciomarine sequences revealed decadal- to annual-scale oscillations with periods close to the one previously associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), whereas spectral analysis of the CAT-scan data from the Sangamonian rhythmites possibly revealed seasonal cycles. 相似文献
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摘要：根据国内外相关研究结果,对新生代气候变化与温室气体(特别是CO2)浓度在不同时间尺度上的可能关系进行初步归纳和探讨。在构造、轨道和千年时间尺度上,气候变化和温室气体浓度均有显著的相关性,表明温室气体无疑是影响地球气候系统的重要因素。同时,两者亦具有显著的“非耦合”特征,包括新近纪构造尺度上CO2相对稳定水平下的全球变冷和冰量扩张、轨道和千年尺度上CO2浓度变化滞后于气候变化、两半球气候的不对称演化等;两者变化的幅度、趋势和变率也常有不同。这些特征中的多数并不能用地球轨道参数的变化来直接解释,表明除太阳辐射和温室气体外,气候系统内部的其他一些因素或过程有时对过去的气候变化起到了决定性的作用。气候变化与温室气体浓度之间可能存在一种自调节功能,构成一个自调节系统而相互调控,而目前我们对这类过程与机理所知尚少。CO2、CH4等作为温室气体,在上述不同时间尺度的气候变化过程中,无疑对气温具正反馈效应。地质尺度上气候变化与温室气体浓度的关系与机理有助于理解当前全球增温的机制,但把过去与现在类比的同时,也要考虑其他边界条件的不同。加强气候模拟与记录对比的研究,对理解上述问题有望发挥重要作用。
关键词：新生代气候;温室气体;碳循环;人类活动 相似文献
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A wide range of palaeoenvironmental evidence from the Holocene has suggested periodicities in the Earth's climate of 10s to 1000s of years. Identifying these millennial‐, century‐ and decadal periodicities, and their impacts, is critical in developing a fuller understanding of natural climate variability. Any solar‐induced climatic change needs to be distinguished from other causes of natural climate variability and from short‐term catastrophic events induced either by external or internal processes. Such events might themselves generate a periodicity, or in combination with other forcing factors they may contribute towards a periodicity (and so spuriously imply a universal and continuing periodicity in the climate record), or they may resonate with a solar‐induced periodicity. Here, evidence from peat records for periodicity in climate change over the mid to late Holocene is reviewed and this is followed by a test of the replicability of claimed periodicities using blanket peat data covering the past 2000 yr from four sites in the British Isles. Results suggest that the mires studied do go through phases of being responsive to periodic forcing factors, with ca. 200, ca. 80 and 60–50 yr wavelengths reflected in some data sets. However, the patterns shown are not consistent. This could be the result of local conditions at individual mires (human impact, sensitivity and vegetation succession) or of changes in the strength or nature of global forcing factors. Assessing a solar–mire link remains difficult because the century‐scale variations of the Sun show different intervals between solar minima, the durations of which are themselves unequal, and because the proxy‐climate data‐sets from peat profiles may themselves not be dated with sufficient precision and/or accuracy. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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We investigated the developmental and hydrological history of a Sphagnum-dominated, kettle peatland in Upper Michigan using testate amoebae, plant macrofossils, and pollen. Our primary objective was to determine if the paleohydrological record of the peatland represents a record of past climate variability at subcentennial to millennial time scales. To assess the role of millennial-scale climate variability on peatland paleohydrology, we compared the timing of peatland and upland vegetation changes. To investigate the role of higher-frequency climate variability on peatland paleohydrology, we used testate amoebae to reconstruct a high-resolution, hydrologic history of the peatland for the past 5100 years, and compared this record to other regional records of paleoclimate and vegetation. Comparisons revealed coherent patterns of hydrological, vegetational, and climatic changes, suggesting that peatland paleohydrology responded to climate variability at millennial to sub-centennial time scales. Although ombrotrophic peatlands have been the focus of most high-resolution peatland paleoclimate research, paleohydrological records from Sphagnum-dominated, closed-basin peatlands record high-frequency and low-magnitude climatic changes and thus represent a significant source of unexplored paleoclimate data. 相似文献
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基于模型率定期(基准期)气候自然变异的模拟方法及气候自然变异引起的径流变化的可能情况分析,此部分研究未来期(2021~2051年,2061~2091年)气候变化下径流变化情况及气候自然变异的影响。基于CSIRO、NCAR、MPI三种气候模式及A1B、A2、B1三种排放方式共7种未来气候情景,应用和基准期相同的水文模型和研究流域,引入基准期模型率定出的参数,考虑气候自然变异的影响,对未来气候变化对水资源的影响进行分析。为消除气候模式本身的系统误差,采用δ差值方法得到各模式各排放情景下的未来气候情景。该项研究主要说明如何在气候变化的影响评价中将气候自然变异的贡献分离出来,从而实现更客观的气候变化的影响评价。研究结果表明,气候变异的影响在整个气候变化进程中的贡献随时间的推移将有所不同。未来2021~2051年期间,气候自然变异的影响相对较大;未来2061~2091年期间,由温室气体引起的气候变化的影响占主导。 相似文献
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基于气候变化影响的水资源评价对水资源规划和管理具有重要意义,随着全球气候变化影响的加剧,这一研究显得越来越紧迫。在目前的气候变化研究中,很少考虑气候自然波动的影响(气候自然变异),常将所有的变化单独归因于气候变化的影响,这在气候变化的影响评价中可能导致错误的理解与判断。气候自然变异分析由于缺乏超长系列的数据资料而长期被人为避开。针对这一问题,本研究提出模型方法体系,通过历史基准期的长系列模拟来分析气候自然变异的影响。选取常用的1961~1990年水文系列作为基准期,提出一种基于拉丁超立方体抽样技术的季节分段抽样模拟方法,实现对气候自然变异的模拟。应用水文模型TOPMODEL对基准期的径流系列进行模拟,基于不确定性分析GLUE方法对基准期内水文模型参数不确定性进行分析,并探讨了气候自然变异的影响。研究结果表明,在气候变化影响评价中,气候自然变异的影响不可忽略,应在气候变化的影响中加以区分和界定。 相似文献
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《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2008,340(9-10):629-643
We illustrate the fundamental importance of fluctuations in natural water flows to the long-term sustainability and productivity of riverine ecosystems and their riparian areas. Natural flows are characterized by temporal and spatial heterogeneity in the magnitude, frequency, duration, timing, rate of change, and predictability of discharge. These characteristics, for a specific river or a collection of rivers within a defined region, shape species life histories over evolutionary (millennial) time scales as well as structure the ecological processes and productivity of aquatic and riparian communities. Extreme events – uncommon floods or droughts – are especially important in that they either reset or alter physical and chemical conditions underpinning the long-term development of biotic communities. We present the theoretical rationale for maintaining flow variability to sustain ecological communities and processes, and illustrate the importance of flow variability in two case studies – one from a semi-arid savanna river in South Africa and the other from a temperate rainforest river in North America. We then discuss the scientific challenges of determining the discharge patterns needed for environmental sustainability in a world where rivers, increasingly harnessed for human uses, are experiencing substantially altered flow characteristics relative to their natural states. 相似文献
18.
The sand–loess transition zone in north China is sensitive to climate change, and is an ideal place to investigate past environmental changes. However, past climate change at millennial–centennial timescales in this region has not been well reconstructed because of limited numerical dating. Alternations of sandy loam soils with aeolian sand layers in the Mu Us and Otindag sand fields, which lie along the sand–loess transition zone, indicate multiple intervals of dune activity and stability. This change is probably a response to variations of the East Asian monsoon climate during the late Quaternary. The single aliquot regeneration (SAR) optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating protocol, which has been successfully applied to aeolian deposits worldwide, is applied to these two sand fields in this study. The OSL ages provide reliable constraints for reconstruction of past climate changes at suborbital timescale. Sections in both sand fields contain aeolian sand beds recording millennial‐scale episodes of dry climate and widespread dune activation, including episodes at about the same time as Heinrich Event 5 and the Younger Dryas in the North Atlantic region. These results demonstrate the potential of aeolian sediments in semi‐arid north China to record millennial‐scale climatic events, and also suggest that dry–wet climate variation at the desert margin in China may be linked to climatic change elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere, through atmospheric circulation. This article was published online on 27 November 2008. An error was subsequently identified. This notice is included in the online and print versions to indicate that both have been corrected (16 December 2008). Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
19.
Explosive volcanic eruptions are known to be a leading cause of natural climate change. There has been a growing recognition that there is a measurable climate system response even to moderate-sized volcanic eruptions. In this study, we investigated the hindcast skills of the Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) using the hindcast experiments based on the near-term climate prediction system DecPreS developed by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP)(hereafter DP-EnOI-IAU experiments). The DP-EnOI-IAU experiments were run for initial years from 1960 to 2005. These hindcasts took into account observed stratospheric aerosol concentrations that included the four large tropical volcanic eruptions during that period. The time evolution over the entire hindcast period for skill in predicting the patterns of the 3~7 year prediction averages for Pacific SSTs showed that there was statistically significant skill for most years except for a dramatic drop in skill during the 1980s and 1990s. Decadal hindcast skill is reduced if the post-eruption model response deviates the internal El Niño variability in the observations. The simulations showed a post-eruption SST of a La Niña-like pattern in the third northern winter after the 1982 El Chichon eruption and a El Niño-like pattern after the 1991 Pinatubo eruption, which were opposite in sign to what was in the observations. This lead to the loss of hindcast skill for years in the 1980s and 1990s affected by the eruptions. Agung (1963) happened to have post-eruption Pacific SSTs more similar to the observations and thus did not degrade prediction skill in the hindcasts. 相似文献
20.
Climate and ocean‐only models have shown that the ocean will respond abruptly to significant perturbations in surface forcing. Centennial‐scale oscillation is a characteristic of circulation in large semi‐enclosed ocean basins such as the Arctic, whereas millennial‐scale adjustment to changes in surface forcing has been found in the global ocean component of climate models. We show that the millennial time‐scale in climate models is likely to be intrinsic to the ocean through its presence in an ocean‐only model. The strength of the thermohaline circulation is shown to be very sensitive to the magnitude of ice albedo and, to a lesser extent, perturbation in the surface freshwater flux. Modelled glacial ocean circulation, in contrast to present‐day simulations, requires an enhanced freshwater flux over the northern Atlantic, even in its non‐Heinrich state, to obtain realistic overturning in the North Atlantic. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献