共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 578 毫秒
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洪水预报中的不确定性是由作为输入的降水观测和预报的误差所决定的。误差大小受雨量计站网密度（大多与天气雷达联合运用），降水强度和所采用的降水预报方法的影响。在不更颠南部，采用一种经验方法来量化降水观测及预报的不确定性性，数据由两个密集的雨量计站网和天气雷达共同提供。降水不确定性对洪水预报的影响，通过在伦敦附近的泰晤士流域一个综合实验研究进行了检验。此项研究就模型和流域对洪水预报不确定性的相地影响也很 相似文献
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淮河流域近500年洪旱事件演变特征分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
为了认识淮河流域过去500年洪旱事件发生规律并鉴别当前的洪旱情势,收集并对比分析了流域实测降雨资料、重建历史雨季降雨资料、历史旱涝等级资料、历史洪旱文献记录和历史调查洪水资料等多源洪旱灾害数据。以重建历史雨季降雨资料和历史旱涝等级资料为主要依据,通过滑动平均、频率计算、小波分析和突变检验等方法,分析流域过去500年洪水干旱时空分布特征和演变规律。结果表明,17世纪淮河流域洪旱灾害最严重,但20世纪极端洪旱事件发生频次最多。淮河流域洪旱事件存在40年左右的稳定长周期,主周期从18世纪的15~20年逐渐减少到19世纪的5年周期,近20年来出现2~3年的主周期,洪旱灾害事件呈增加趋势,流域社会经济发展面临着严峻的洪旱灾害威胁。 相似文献
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为提高实时洪水预报精度,提出一种基于动态系统响应修正自由水蓄量的新方法。该方法将新安江模型自由水蓄水库以下的部分作为一个系统,将自由水蓄量的扰动值与对应的系统响应差值建立关系,通过最小二乘法建立起一个向误差源追溯的自由水蓄量误差反演修正模型。分别应用理想模型与东圳流域对其进行检验,并与二阶自回归(AR)模型的修正结果进行比较。结果表明,对于流域的16场历史洪水,新方法的修正效果相比于AR模型有明显提高,可在实际流域中推广应用。 相似文献
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降雨预报信息作为洪水预报模型的输入,该信息的准确性直接影响洪水预报模型输出的准确性.为探究模型输入(降雨预报)误差与输出(洪水预报)误差之间的关系,以英那河流域为例,分析了不同雨量等级下,预报模型的输入误差与输出误差的分布规律,并定性分析了两种误差的相关关系.结果表明,降雨量等级若为无雨及小雨时,两种误差不相关;若为中... 相似文献
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为提高实时洪水预报精度,提出了一种基于动态系统响应曲线洪水预报误差修正新方法。该方法将动态系统响应曲线引入洪水预报误差修正中,建立一种向误差源头追溯的动态反馈修正模型。此修正方法将新安江模型产流以下的部分作为响应系统, 用线性差分近似代替非线性系统响应函数的偏导数值,得到时段产流量所对应的系统响应曲线。用实测流量和计算流量之间的差值作为信息,使用最小二乘估计原理,对产流量进行修正, 再用修正后的产流量重新计算出流过程。该修正方法分别用理想案例和王家坝流域进行检验,结果证明此方法效果比传统二阶自回归模型有明显提高。 相似文献
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为防止和减缓河道洪水灾害，作出可靠的洪水预报是十分必要的。人们业已提出许多方法并用于联机洪水预报，但大多数方法尚需进一步改进。为此Ｈｉｒａｎｏ等人（１９８６）提出了一个洪水位预报的动力模型。在本研究中，将该模型改进后用于多站系统，并用批处理去改正系统参数的初值。根据非恒定流的连续方程和动量方程用运动波理论求解，并引进单位线以估计坡面旁侧入流。当预报中所取的预见期等于或小于坡面汇流时间时，可不用降雨 相似文献
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HBV模型在中国东北多冰雪地区的应用研究 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
HBV模型是瑞典SMHI开发研制的水文预报模型，广泛用于水文预报、未控制河流的流量模拟、设计洪水计算和水质研究。HBV／IHMS的积雪和融雪模型，可以模拟冰河和田间积雪区的降水量。中国东北地区有较长冰雪覆盖期，春汛预报和春季抗旱水量分析尤为重要，但是缺少考虑融雪（冰）的洪水预报方案和软件系统。利用鸟苏里江一级支流挠力河的历史水文气象资料作为实例应用HBV／IHMS，模拟效果良好，分析结果表明HBV模型对于中国东北多冰雪地区的洪水或水量预报是可行的。 相似文献
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采用相关分析法,在区域降水、观测断面流量(或水位)因子中识别出影响预报断面径流过程的主要变量,在多个观测断面的数据均为流量情况下,采用基于时延组合的合成流量为影响预报断面径流过程的变量,采用自相关分析法,识别出影响预报断面径流过程的前期流量(或水位),以这些变量为BP神经网络模型的输入,以预报断面的流量(或水位)为模型的输出,在BP神经网络隐层节点数自动优选的基础上,构建了基于BP神经网络的洪水预报模型。将模型载入中国洪水预报系统中,应用结果表明:模型在历史洪水训练样本具有一定代表性的情况下,可获得较高的预报精度。 相似文献
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S. Viswanathan K. Surya Prakash Rao B. Mahabaleswar 《Journal of the Geological Society of India》2013,82(6):621-627
Komatiites are mantle-derived ultramafic volcanic rocks. Komatiites have been discovered in several States of India, notably in Karnataka. Studies on the distribution of trace-elements in the komatiites of India are very few. This paper proposes a simple, accurate, precise, rapid, and non-destructive wavelength-dispersive x-ray fluorescence (WDXRF) spectrometric technique for determining Sc, V, Cr, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Rb, Sr, Y, Zr, Nb, Ba, Pb, and Th in komatiites, and discusses the accuracy, precision, limits of detection, x-ray spectral-line interferences, inter-element effects, speed, advantages, and limitations of the technique. The accuracy of the technique is excellent (within 3%) for Sc, V, Cr, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Rb, Sr, Zr, Nb, Ba, Pb, and Th and very good (within 4%) for Y. The precision is also excellent (within 3%) for Sc, V, Cr, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Rb, Sr, Y, Zr, Nb, Ba, Pb, and Th. The limits of detection are: 1 ppm for Sc and V; 2 ppm for Cr, Co, and Ni; 3 ppm for Cu, Zn, Rb, and Sr; 4 ppm for Y and Zr; 6 ppm for Nb; 10 ppm for Ba; 13 ppm for Pb; and 14 ppm for Th. The time taken for determining Sc, V, Cr, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Rb, Sr, Y, Zr, Nb, Ba, Pb, and Th in a batch of 24 samples of komatiites, for a replication of four analyses per sample, by one operator, using a manual WDXRF spectrometer, is only 60 hours. 相似文献
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奥地利安东帕有限公司 《岩矿测试》2009,28(3):306-306
最新的流行病学研究表明,空气中较高浓度的悬浮细颗粒可能对人类的健康有不利的影响。根据该项研究显示,由于心脏病、慢性呼吸问题和肺功能指标恶化而导致死亡率的升高与细尘粒子有关。这些研究结果已经促使欧盟于1999年4月出台了限制空气中二氧化硫、二氧化氮、氧化氮、铅和颗粒物含量的法案(1999/30/EC),对各项指标包括对可吸入PM10颗粒的浓度提出了新的限制性指标。PM10颗粒是指可以通过预分级器分离采集的气体动力学直径小于10μm的细颗粒。目前研究的兴趣重点逐步偏向PM2.5这些更细微颗粒物,PM2.5这种颗粒物对健康有明显的不利影响。在欧盟指令2008/50/EC中,对PM10和PM2.5都提 相似文献
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E. M. Prasolov S. A. Sergeev B. V. Belyatsky E. S. Bogomolov K. A. Gruzdov I. N. Kapitonov R. Sh. Krymsky V. O. Khalenev 《Geochemistry International》2018,56(1):46-64
This paper reports the first results of a study of 11 isotope systems (3He/4He, 40Ar/36Ar, 34S/32S, 65Cu/63Cu, 62Ni/60Ni, 87Sr/86Sr, 143Nd/144Nd, 206–208Pb/204Pb, Hf–Nd, U–Pb, and Re–Os) in the rocks and ores of the Cu–Ni–PGE deposits of the Norilsk ore district. Almost all the results were obtained at the Center of Isotopic Research of the Karpinskii All-Russia Research Institute of Geology. The use of a number of independent genetic isotopic signatures and comprehensive isotopic knowledge provided a methodic basis for the interpretation of approximately 5000 isotopic analyses of various elements. The presence of materials from two sources, crust and mantle, was detected in the composition of the rocks and ores. The contribution of the crustal source is especially significant in the paleofluids (gas–liquid microinclusions) of the ore-forming medium. Crustal solutions were probably a transport medium during ore formation. Air argon is dominant in the ores, which indicates a connection between the paleofluids and the atmosphere. This suggests intense groundwater circulation during the crystallization of ore minerals. The age of the rocks and ores of the Norilsk deposits was determined. The stage of orebody formation is restricted to a narrow age interval of 250 ± 10 Ma. An isotopic criterion was proposed for the ore-bearing potential of mafic intrusions in the Norilsk–Taimyr region. It includes several interrelated isotopic ratios of various elements: He, Ar, S, and others. 相似文献
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Mining induced subsidence can significantly affect mining costs where major surface facilities and natural environment need to be protected. Overburden grout injection is a technology used to control coal mine subsidence by injecting the mine waste material extracted from the coal back into the inter-burden rock during longwall mining. The flowing slurry is here categorised as a nonlinear viscous cohesive (Bingham plastic) fluid. During longwall mining the grout slurry is pumped into the separated beds of the rock mass through a central vertical borehole, which is drilled deep into the inter-burden rock strata above the coal seam. However, a blockage can occur in the injection system when the slurry velocity falls below a certain critical threshold velocity, indicating a material phase change from cohesive-viscous to cohesive-frictional. In situ field injection tests through boreholes have been simulated at a smaller scale at the CSIRO laboratory in Brisbane by pumping the slurry through a radial disk (gap = 4 mm) from its centre. Laboratory experiments indicate a general, nonlinear, cohesive, viscous, frictional model for shear behaviour of the slurry, in which the material shear parameters are functions of the disk radial distance. Complete dimensional and dimensionless analytical solutions have been developed based on an approach related to Bingham–Herschel–Bulkley fluid mechanics. The derived formulae include relations for minimum pump pressure, local pressure and pressure gradient, wall shear stress, volume rate, velocity and velocity gradient. The theoretical results match the experimental measurements. The experiments covered slurries with maximum particle sizes of 0.5 to 2 mm with about 50% being larger than 100 µm. The viscosities at the various solids concentrations were measured with a standard torsion viscometer. This study differs from the previous research in several distinct aspects, namely, consideration of the variable shear parameters rather than fixed values, inclusion of total nonlinear behaviour, and implementation of a friction function to mimic behaviour of the deposited and consolidating stiff slurry, which can cause a significant pressure rise as a result of the increased shear resistance. 相似文献
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岩石密度和超高压岩石折返速率 总被引：1，自引：3，他引：1
在常温常压条件下对中国大陆科学钻CCSD主孔100-3000米岩心样品进行了密度测量,建立了密度连续剖面,并界定了不同超高压岩石的密度值。通过对比高温高压物性实验资料,岩石密度随着退变程度增强而降低,榴辉岩密度变化序列为3.52g/cm3→3.49g/cm3→3.07g/cm3→2.93g/cm3。超高压长英质岩石密度变化序列为3.00g/cm→2.80g/cm3→2.65g/cm3。上述实验资料是讨论不同折返阶段岩石所受浮力的基础,为研究折返速率大小提供了基本参数。本文通过折返板块运动平衡时,上浮力与粘滞力平衡这一关系式,定量研究了大陆俯冲板块的折返速率,认为密度差产生上浮力从而引起折返,温度对板块折返速率的影响最为显著;密度差大小、折返角度、折返板块大小对折返速率也有直接的影响。定量模拟分析表明,在温度高于850℃时,板块的折返速率可以超过100mm/a;当温度降至700℃时,折返速率则低于1.5mm/a。作者认为在折返早期,温度较高,板块快速折返至60-70km榴辉岩相深度;随着传导散热,温度降低,板块以较慢的速率折返至中下地壳。折返速率的估算表明,浮力是板块折返第一阶段(从>100km深部折返至<40km的中下地壳)的主要驱动力。 相似文献
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《Applied Geochemistry》2001,16(2):137-159
Five hundred and ninety-eight samples of terrestrial moss (Hylocomium splendens and Pleurozium schreberi) collected from a 188,000 km2 area of the central Barents region (NE Norway, N Finland, NW Russia) were analysed by ICP-AES and ICP-MS. Analytical results for Al, B, Ba, Ca, K, La, Mg, Mn, Na, P, Rb, Si, Sr, Th, U and Y concentrations are reported here. Graphical methods of data analysis, such as geochemical maps, cumulative frequency diagrams, boxplots and scatterplots, are used to interpret the origin of the patterns for these elements. None of the elements reported here are emitted in significant amounts from the smelting industry on the Kola Peninsula. Despite the conventional view that moss chemistry reflects atmospheric element input, the nature of the underlying mineral substrate (regolith or bedrock) is found to have a considerable influence on moss composition for several elements. This influence of the chemistry of the mineral substrate can take place in a variety of ways. (1) It can be completely natural, reflecting the ability of higher plants to take up elements from deep soil horizons and shed them with litterfall onto the surface. (2) It can result from naturally increased soil dust input where vegetation is scarce due to harsh climatic conditions for instance. Alternatively, substrate influence can be enhanced by human activity, such as open-cast mining, creation of ‘technogenic deserts’, or handling, transport and storage of ore and ore products, all of which magnify the natural elemental flux from bedrock to ground vegetation. Seaspray is another natural process affecting moss composition in the area (Mg, Na), and this is most visible in the Norwegian part of the study area. Presence or absence of some plant species, e.g., lichens, seems to influence moss chemistry. This is shown by the low concentrations of B or K in moss on the Finnish and Norwegian side of the (fenced) border with Russia, contrasting with high concentrations on the other side (intensive reindeer husbandry west of the border has selectively depleted the lichen population). 相似文献
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Marta L. PATINO-DOUCE Alberto PATINO-DOUCE Mazhar QAYYUM Roger L. NIELSEN 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》1994,18(2):195-198
We have developed a set of four synthetic standards for the rare earth and high field strength elements designed for use in the determination of those elements in silicates. The base material is a glass nominally at the eutectic of the MgO-Al2 O3 -SiO2 ternary system. The nominal doping level was 2 wt% of the elements as oxides. To avoid problems associated with peak interference, the elements were doped in four separate glasses. 相似文献