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Climate engineering has received increasing attention, but its discussion has remained on the sidelines of mainstream climate policy. The policy relevance of this previously exotic option is poised to rise because of the gap between the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement and slow global mitigation efforts. It is therefore crucial to understand the risks and benefits of the proposed schemes, and the social implications of policy choices. Assessment of the risks and benefits of solar geoengineering strongly depends on scenarios, but previous scenarios have not reflected the full range of social choices. In light of concerns over risks, a newer set of scenarios is desirable, which represents both uncertainties and social choices more fully. Borrowing and extending lessons from recent literature on the new community climate scenario process, we envision a possible scenario-building process that combines interdisciplinary scholarship with the involvement of stakeholders and citizens. The resultant scenarios would better characterize uncertainties of, and policy choices for, solar geoengineering, and foster critical appraisal of its risks and benefits. Such societal choices might include not only total ban and large-scale deployment, but also limited deployment, which has received less attention in the scenario literature. The interaction between scenario and governance research would be able to highlight the central issues at stake, including ethical, social, and political dimensions.

Key policy insights

  • A more comprehensive assessment of solar geoengineering is necessary to evaluate its risks and benefits, necessitating new scenario research

  • It is crucial to reflect the full span of policy choices and uncertainties with interdisciplinary collaboration in such scenarios

  • Such societal choices might include not only total ban and large-scale deployment, but also limited deployment, which has received less attention in the scenario literature

  • Participatory scenario research would enable incorporating the concerns and opinions of stakeholders and citizens in scenario creation

  相似文献   
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Climate Dynamics - The interannual-decadal variability of the wintertime mixed layer depths (MLDs) over the North Pacific is investigated from an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of an...  相似文献   
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A seasonal evolution of surface mixed layer in the western North Pacific around 24°N between 143°E and 150°E was observed by using an Argo float for more than 9 months, from December 2001 through August 2002. The result showed that the mixed layer deepened gradually in the first two months. It reached its maximum depth of about 130 m at the end of January, after which the mixed layer varied largely and sometimes the pycnocline below the mixed layer was much weakened until the summer mixed layer formed in late April. The thin surface mixed layer was maintained during the rest of the observation period. Heat budget analysis suggests that the vertical and horizontal temperature advections are the two most dominant terms in the heat balance in the upper layer on time scales from a few days to a month. The vertical motions that are possibly responsible for the vertical temperature advection are discussed.  相似文献   
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During surveillance of the distribution of the paralytic shellfish poison (PSP)-producing dinoflagellate in 2003, 2004 and 2005 along the coastlines of the Seto Inland Sea, Hiroshima Prefecture, Japan, some species of toxic phytoplankton were isolated from the eastern coasts, Bingo-Nada, the central regions of the Seto Inland Sea. It was rather unexpectedly revealed from the basis of the morphological characteristics that they were unambiguously identified as Alexandrium tamiyavanichii and Alexandrium catenella. Two strains (ATY041106, ATY051018) of A. tamiyavanichii showed a specific toxicity of 38.7 x 10(-6) and 111.5 x 10(-6)MU/cell, respectively. These values seemed to be several times or much higher than that of A. catenella (AC030816, AC040614), having a specific toxicity of 4.5 x 10(-6) and 4.1 x 10(-6)MU/cell, respectively, isolated in the same area. From the results of HPLC-furuorometric analysis, it revealed that the toxins in ATY041106 exist almost exclusively as beta-epimers (C2, GTX3, GTX4), which accounted for 72.7 mol%. The toxin profiles of this strain are featured by the presence of a large amount of GTX3 (59.1 mol%) and a small amount (20.6%) of C1 and 2 in comparison with the PSP compositions of A. tamarense, which is isolated as the main responsible species in Hiroshima Bay, a western part of coastal sea in Hiroshima Prefecture. On the other hand, it revealed that the toxin profiles of two strains (AC030816, AC040614) of A. catenella exist almost exclusively as beta-epimers (C2, GTX3, GTX4), which accounted for 81.8 and 56.5 mol%, as the same manner. The toxin profiles of these two strains are featured by the presence of a large amount of C2 (80.5 and 46.3 mol%) in comparison with the PSP compositions of A. tamiyavanichii. To our knowledge, this is the first record to show the distribution and harmful influence of A. tamiyavanichii and A. catenella in Bingo-Nada in Hiroshima Prefecture. Though contamination of bivalves with these PSP-producing planktons in this area has not occurred yet so far, attention should be paid to this species as well as the other causative dinoflagellate from the stand point of public health and food hygiene.  相似文献   
78.
To detect short-term fluctuations south of Japan, we applied wavelet analysis to ocean reanalysis data of the Japan Coastal Ocean Predictability Experiment 2 with a horizontal resolution of 1/36°. It was found that fluctuations of the 8- to 36-day period band appear as frontal waves in the Kuroshio Current. The amplitude of the fluctuations increases toward the downstream of Cape Shionomisaki. The fluctuations have a wavelength of about 300 km, and the signals propagate eastward. The fluctuations of the 8- to 36-day period band are stronger during the period of the nearshore non-large-meander Kuroshio path than during the period of the offshore non-large-meander Kuroshio path. We suggest that the 8- to 36-day fluctuation is a result of the instability of the accelerated velocity of the Kuroshio Current downstream of Cape Shionomisaki.  相似文献   
79.
Chang  Yu-Lin K.  Varlamov  Sergey M.  Guo  Xinyu  Miyama  Toru  Miyazawa  Yasumasa 《Ocean Dynamics》2023,73(5):249-265
Ocean Dynamics - In July 2020, a stationary atmospheric front over Japan caused persistent, nearly continuous rain for most of the month that resulted in new historical highest rainfall records in...  相似文献   
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