Decadal prediction skill in the GEOS-5 forecast system     

Yoo-Geun Ham  Michele M. Rienecker  Max J. Suarez  Yury Vikhliaev  Bin Zhao  Jelena Marshak  Guillaume Vernieres  Siegfried D. Schubert 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(1-2):1-20

A suite of decadal predictions has been conducted with the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office’s (GMAO’s) GEOS-5 Atmosphere–Ocean general circulation model. The hind casts are initialized every December 1st from 1959 to 2010, following the CMIP5 experimental protocol for decadal predictions. The initial conditions are from a multi-variate ensemble optimal interpolation ocean and sea-ice reanalysis, and from GMAO’s atmospheric reanalysis, the modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications. The mean forecast skill of a three-member-ensemble is compared to that of an experiment without initialization but also forced with observed greenhouse gases. The results show that initialization increases the forecast skill of North Atlantic sea surface temperature compared to the uninitialized runs, with the increase in skill maintained for almost a decade over the subtropical and mid-latitude Atlantic. On the other hand, the initialization reduces the skill in predicting the warming trend over some regions outside the Atlantic. The annual-mean atlantic meridional overturning circulation index, which is defined here as the maximum of the zonally-integrated overturning stream function at mid-latitude, is predictable up to a 4-year lead time, consistent with the predictable signal in upper ocean heat content over the North Atlantic. While the 6- to 9-year forecast skill measured by mean squared skill score shows 50 % improvement in the upper ocean heat content over the subtropical and mid-latitude Atlantic, prediction skill is relatively low in the subpolar gyre. This low skill is due in part to features in the spatial pattern of the dominant simulated decadal mode in upper ocean heat content over this region that differ from observations. An analysis of the large-scale temperature budget shows that this is the result of a model bias, implying that realistic simulation of the climatological fields is crucial for skillful decadal forecasts.  相似文献   

Interannual-decadal variability of wintertime mixed layer depths in the North Pacific detected by an ensemble of ocean syntheses     

Toyoda  Takahiro  Fujii  Yosuke  Kuragano  Tsurane  Kosugi  Naohiro  Sasano  Daisuke  Kamachi  Masafumi  Ishikawa  Yoichi  Masuda  Shuhei  Sato  Kanako  Awaji  Toshiyuki  Hernandez  Fabrice  Ferry  Nicolas  Guinehut  Stéphanie  Martin  Matthew  Andrew Peterson  K.  Good  Simon A.  Valdivieso  Maria  Haines  Keith  Storto  Andrea  Masina  Simona  Köhl  Armin  Yin  Yonghong  Shi  Li  Alves  Oscar  Smith  Gregory  Chang  You-Soon  Vernieres  Guillaume  Wang  Xiaochun  Forget  Gael  Heimbach  Patrick  Wang  Ou  Fukumori  Ichiro  Lee  Tong  Zuo  Hao  Balmaseda  Magdalena 《Climate Dynamics》2017,49(3):891-907

Climate Dynamics - The interannual-decadal variability of the wintertime mixed layer depths (MLDs) over the North Pacific is investigated from an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of an...  相似文献