高分辨地形对华南区域GRAPES模式地面要素预报影响的研究     

朱文达  陈子通  张艳霞  杨静  张媛 《热带气象学报》2019,35(6):801-811

华南区域GRAPES模式动力框架的更新使得高分辨地形数据能够进入模式。引入SRTM数据实现静态数据更新,结合模式内置数据,进行了批量模拟试验;通过站点检验方式,对批量试验结果进行对比,得出以下结论:对比业务使用的Topo10 m地形、Topo30 s地形、SRTM地形和基于SRTM多种插值方案得到的地形,海拔偏差的空间分布和分位数统计都有明显的改善,复杂地形区域的改善效果更显著。通过地面要素平均绝对误差(MAE)箱须图统计和模式西部站点绝对误差(AE)时间序列图对比分析,发现高分辨地形试验的2 m气温和10 m风速MAE和AE有大幅度的改善。高分辨地形对模式静态数据的改善是2 m气温和10 m风速MAE下降的主要原因,地形复杂区域对MAE改善的贡献高于模式其他区域。高分辨地形进入模式后会引起动力过程计算的虚假扰动,适当的滤波平滑能够抑制扰动,从而进一步提高预报精度。   相似文献   

有云条件下HIRS/3资料的同化及其对“珍珠”台风的影响   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

丁伟钰  万齐林  张诚忠  黄燕燕  陈子通 《气象学报》2010,68(1):70-78

卫星红外辐射资料汽接同化容易受到云的影响,大量卫星资料在有云情况下无法直接同化,其原因之一就是初始云结构难以获取.而云结构是同化系统观测算子的重要输入参数,缺乏云的结构信息,观测算子尤法模拟有云环境下的亮温.热带地区以及台风、暴雨等极端天气系统与云密不可分,要改进卫星辐射资料特别是红外资料直接同化的效果,需要获得较高精度的云三维结构.在GRAPES-3DVAR(Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction Enhanced System,全球/区域同化预报系统)基础上,结合WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting Model,天气研究和预报模式)对"珍珠"台风云结构的模拟,增加模拟的云参数作为GRAPES-3DVAR同化系统中RTTOV模式(fast radiative transfer model for TOVS,快速辐射传输模式)的输入参数,改进了有云环境下卫星资料直接同化的观测算子,研究了红外辐射资料直接同化的方法,并分析其对"珍珠"台风预报的影响.针对NOAAl6(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,美国国家海洋和大气管理局)的HIRS/3(High Resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder,高分辨率红外辐射探测仪3型)第4-8、10、13 19通道辐射亮温的同化试验表明,结合初始云结构信息改进同化系统观测算子,可以将红外辎射资料的观测信息同化到模式之中,改进台风温度、湿度结构,对短时降水预报有正面影响.  相似文献   

MODIS BRIGHTNESS TEMPERATURE DATA ASSIMILATION UNDER CLOUDY CONDITIONS: METHODS AND IDEAL TESTS   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

丁伟钰  万齐林  张诚忠  陈子通  黄燕燕 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2010,16(4):313-324

Clouds have important effects on the infrared radiances transmission in that the inclusion of cloud effects in data assimilation can not only improve the quality of the assimilated atmospheric parameters greatly, but also minimize the initial error of cloud parameters by adjusting part of the infrared radiances data. On the basis of the Grapes-3D-var (Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction Enhanced System), cloud liquid water, cloud ice water and cloud cover are added as the governing variables in the assimilation. Under the conditions of clear sky, partly cloudy cover and totally cloudy cover, the brightness temperature of 16 MODIS channels are assimilated respectively in ideal tests. Results show that when the simulated background brightness temperatures are lower than the observation, the analyzed field will increase the simulated brightness temperature by increasing its temperature and reducing its moisture, cloud liquid water, cloud ice water, and cloud cover. The simulated brightness temperature can be reduced if adjustment is made in the contrary direction. The adjustment of the temperature and specific humidity under the clear sky conditions conforms well to the design of MODIS channels, but it is weakened for levels under cloud layers. The ideal tests demonstrate that by simultaneously adding both cloud parameters and atmospheric parameters as governing variables during the assimilation of infrared radiances, both the cloud parameters and atmospheric parameters can be adjusted using the observed infrared radiances and conventional meteorological elements to make full use of the infrared observations.  相似文献   

黔南坳陷构造变形特征及其成因解析   总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5  

徐政语  姚根顺  郭庆新  陈子炓  董庸  王鹏万  马立桥 《大地构造与成矿学》2010,34(1)

黔南坳陷构造线主体呈NNE至近SN向展布,与坳陷南部NW向-近EW向罗甸断坳以及北部NEE向黔中隆起构造线走向不一,具有明显的构造变形调节特征。经结合地震、MT以及区域地质资料分析,黔南坳陷发育有浅变质与结晶双层结构基底,深部结晶基底表现出明显的"岛链"状结构特征,可能是扬子古陆的外缘增生部分;坳陷总体经历了南华-志留纪、泥盆纪-早三叠世、中三叠世-侏罗纪三期成盆与新元古代早期末、志留纪、中三叠世以来三期隆升,发育了从被动大陆边缘、到前陆、到改造三种盆地类型。今构造格局与变形样式实为多期构造变形形迹的复合、联合与叠加。总体上,坳陷今表层面貌呈现为隔槽式褶皱、是典型的山前逆冲推覆构造发育区发育的侏罗山式构造样式,纵向上可划分为震旦系-下古生界(下)、上古生界(中)及中新生界(上)三个构造层,其中下构造层以发育基底卷入的冲断变形构造为主,中构造层以发育与断层相关的冲起变形构造为主,上构造层以发育滑动褶皱与断展褶皱为主;坳陷今表层构造多受其深层"岛链"状结晶基底结构所控制。  相似文献   

桂中坳陷海相地层油气成藏与热作用改造     

陈子炓  姚根顺  郭庆新  彭平安  徐政语  马立桥  贺训云 《海相油气地质》2010,15(3)

桂中坳陷是在加里东运动基础上形成的晚古生代海相大型沉积坳陷,已演化成为由上古生界和三叠系充填的残留盆地,其中泥盆系深埋地腹,是主要的勘探目的层系。桂中1井揭示泥盆系—石炭系具有两套生储盖组合,钻遇了气测异常、油迹砂岩、固体沥青等三类油气显示,其中泥盆系沥青显示井段累计709m。桂中坳陷古油藏(沥青)主要来源于中—下泥盆统塘丁组和罗富组泥岩。桂中1井和南丹大厂储层固体沥青为运移/成藏的油气发生热裂解而形成的焦沥青。桂中1井经历了两期油气充注,第一期为印支期前的主力生烃期,第二期(晚期)为燕山期—喜马拉雅期,以紧邻油气显示层的可溶烃类为代表。经历了三期油气改造:第一期为印支期前的油气藏经历了地层沉降增温的热裂解作用而演化为固体沥青和甲烷天然气,第二期为燕山晚期岩浆活动导致的更高温度的热蚀变作用,第三期为喜马拉雅期构造抬升的改造或破坏作用对上泥盆统油气藏的影响。晚期成藏的天然气应是下一步的勘探方向。桂中坳陷西部地层保存相对完整(目的层深埋),断裂和岩浆活动相对不发育,可能更有利于天然气的聚集和保存。  相似文献   

Probabilistic Estimation of Hazard on Engineering Site Based on the Intensity of Historic Earthquakes and A Preliminary Comparison with Seismic Hazard Analysis     

Zhang Jie  Shen JianwenSeismological Bureau of Anhui Province  Hefei  China 《中国地震研究》1995,(1)

This paper introduces a new method to estimate the seismic hazard on engineering site.The method is mainly based on intensity data of historical earthquakes.The obvious feature of the method is to use some ideas of seismic hazard analysis and considering regional seismicity tendency.The authors depict the comprehensive method to estimate the related parameters and predict the seismic hazards for 14 sites as practical examples.Some problems are also discussed.Compared with seismic hazard analysis,this method has certain advantages,such as simpler computation,lower uncertainty and smaller sensitivity factor.Moreover total hazard P(I≥i)of a site can be examined with real historic data.The result given by the method in this paper can be more stable than that given by seismic hazard analysis nowadays.  相似文献   

Establishment of the GPS Crustal Deformation Monitoring Network in North China   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Li Yanxing  Shen Jianhua  and Wang MinFirst Crustal Deformation Monitoring Center  SSB  Tianjin ChinaDepartment of Scientific Programming  Earthquake Monitoring  SSB. Beijing China 《中国地震研究》1995,(3)

The Global Positioning System (GPS) is a new method to monitor the crustal deformation for earthquake prediction.Now a four-dimensional crustal deformation monitoring network applying GPS techniques has been established in North China,which is an important seismic monitoring area.Results with high precision have been achieved in the first measurement since a series of advanced methods and measures were adopted,and thus a good foundation has been laid for future researches on earthquake prediction and geodynamics.  相似文献   

Cretaceous-Eogene Ostracod Assemblages in Henan and Their Evolutionary Features     

Zhang Shen Jidong Oil Exploration &. Development Corp.  Tanghai  Hebei Fei Zhenbi 《《地质学报》英文版》1995,69(1):99-110

This paper studies a large number of Cretaceous-Eogene ostracod fossils in the Meso-Cenozoic Nanyang, Zhoukou, Rendian, Luoyang, Lingbao, Tantou and Kaifeng basins of Henan. Eight ostracod assemblages have been recognized. This paper discusses their geographical distribution and geological ages as well as their features and evolutional trends. Besides, it also deals with the palaeoclimate under which the various assemblages lived and the significance in petroleum exploration.  相似文献   

APS系列解析测图仪精度分析     

胡Shen 《测绘科技》1993,(1):33-39

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基于逆向工程建模方法的危岩体稳定性数值模拟分析     

高相波  李丽慧  廖小辉  王学良  陈子干 《工程地质学报》2020,28(3):557-564

高陡岩质边坡危岩体失稳机理与稳定性评价一直是学者们关注的重点问题。相比于以定性分析为主的传统稳定性评价方法, 数值模拟分析方法在危岩体稳定性评价工作中得到越来越广泛的应用。而如何快速准确地建立复杂三维精细化地质模型, 尽可能还原岩体结构特征信息, 并与数值模拟软件进行无损对接, 进而定量评价危岩体稳定性仍是目前急需解决的问题。在野外现场调查结果的基础上, 对浙江神仙居景区神龙瀑景点处的地质灾害隐患点进行高精度三维激光扫描, 基于逆向工程建模软件Geomagic Studio, 对扫描获取的点云数据进行模型重建, 借助有限元网格划分软件Hypermesh对曲面模型进行三维实体化和网格划分处理, 再导入数值模拟软件FLAC3D中进行计算。结果表明, 神龙瀑边坡受拉破坏危岩体后缘裂隙最大拉应力接近抗拉强度, 且存在明显位移, 极有可能发生滑移-坠落。然后通过FLAC3D内置FISH语言进行二次开发, 计算结构面塑性破坏单元数目在总单元数目中的占比, 得出危岩体失稳概率为20%以上。该结果与现场灾害调查、数值分析结果相互印证, 预测了危岩体的潜在破坏范围, 提出了相应的防治措施建议。上述分析结果可为当地旅游管理部门的灾害防治工作提供理论依据和指导。  相似文献