A method for regional climate change detection using smooth temporal patterns     

Aurélien Ribes  Jean-Marc Azaïs  Serge Planton 《Climate Dynamics》2010,35(2-3):391-406

This paper introduces an original method for climate change detection, called temporal optimal detection method. The method consists in searching for a smooth temporal pattern in the observations. This pattern can be either the response of the climate system to a specific forcing or to a combination of forcings. Many characteristics of this new method are different from those of the classical “optimal fingerprint” method. It allows to infer the spatial distribution of the detected signal, without providing any spatial guess pattern. The spatial properties of the internal climate variability doesn’t need to be estimated either. The estimation of such quantities being very challenging at regional scale, the proposed method is particularly well-suited for such scale. The efficiency of the method is illustrated by applying it on real homogenized datasets of temperatures and precipitation over France. A multimodel detection is performed in both cases, using an ensemble of atmosphere-ocean general circulation models for estimating the temporal patterns. Regarding temperatures, new results are highlighted, especially by showing that a change is detected even after removing the uniform part of the warming. The sensitivity of the method is discussed in this case, relatively to the computation of the temporal patterns and to the choice of the model. The method also allows to detect a climate change signal in precipitation. This change impacts the spatial distribution of the precipitation more than the mean over the domain. The ability of the method to provide an estimate of the spatial distribution of the change following the prescribed temporal patterns is also illustrated.  相似文献   

Persistent multi-decadal Greenland temperature fluctuation through the last millennium     

Takuro Kobashi  Jeffrey P. Severinghaus  Jean-Marc Barnola  Kenji Kawamura  Tara Carter  Tosiyuki Nakaegawa 《Climatic change》2010,100(3-4):733-756

Future Greenland temperature evolution will affect melting of the ice sheet and associated global sea-level change. Therefore, understanding Greenland temperature variability and its relation to global trends is critical. Here, we reconstruct the last 1,000 years of central Greenland surface temperature from isotopes of N₂ and Ar in air bubbles in an ice core. This technique provides constraints on decadal to centennial temperature fluctuations. We found that northern hemisphere temperature and Greenland temperature changed synchronously at periods of ~20 years and 40–100 years. This quasi-periodic multi-decadal temperature fluctuation persisted throughout the last millennium, and is likely to continue into the future.  相似文献   

Temperature effect on the photodissociation rates in the atmospheres of Mars and Venus     

Jean-Paul Parisot  Jean-Marc Zucconi 《Icarus》1984,60(2):327-331

The available solar flux at a given altitude in the atmospheres of Mars and Venus is attenuated mainly by CO₂ (molecular absorption and Rayleigh scattering) with an extra contribution due to SO₂ on Venus. The dissociation cross section of CO₂ depends on temperature. At temperatures appropriate for these atmospheres (～250°K), the cross sections are about 15% lower than those at room conditions (Y.L. Yung and W.B. De More, 1982, Icarus, 51, 199). It is shown that this temperature effect cannot be neglected in the evaluation of photolysis rates. Calculations of the photodissociation coefficients of CO₂, SO₂, HCl, and H₂O are presented. For example, at the surface of Mars, the coefficient of H₂O is nearly multiplied by a factor of 10!  相似文献   

Impact of spatial resolution on simulated surface water mass transformations in the Atlantic     

Sergey K. Gulev  Bernard Barnier  Jean-Marc Molines  Thierry Penduff  Jrme Chanut 《Ocean Modelling》2007,19(3-4):138-160

We analyze the water mass transformation in coarse (1°) and high (1/6°) resolution ocean simulations with the identical configuration of the CLIPPER model and interannual ERA15 forcing function. Climatological characteristics of surface water mass transformation in the two experiments are quite different. The high resolution experiment exhibits a stronger surface transformation in equatorial and tropical regions, in the Gulf Stream area and in the location of the formation of Subtropical Mode Water (STMW), associated with high levels of eddy kinetic energy. The coarse resolution experiment shows a better representation of the transformation rates corresponding to the densest subpolar mode waters and Labrador Sea Water (LSW). This is explained by the differences in lateral mixing procedures between high and coarse resolution experiments. The high resolution 1/6° run is eddy-resolving only in the tropics and mid-latitudes. In these areas eddies are found to enhance the process of water mass transformation compared to the isopycnal diffusion used to parameterized the eddies in the 1° model. Despite its 1/6° resolution, the high resolution model does not adequately represent eddies in the subpolar gyre and Labrador Sea. In these areas the high resolution model fails to correctly simulate water mass transformation because the lateral mixing (provided through the bi-harmonic sub-gridscale parameterization) of newly ventilated waters with surrounding waters is not efficient enough. In contrast in the coarse 1° resolution model, the strong lateral mixing and the unrealistically broad boundary currents imposed by the high diffusivity required for numerical stability mixes newly formed LSW waters with the warmer and saltier waters of the rim current. Finally, it results in a more effective representation of the surface water mass transformation in high latitudes in the 1° model. A possible impact of the increased lateral diffusion in high resolution experiment on the representation of re-stratification in the Labrador Sea was studied in sensitivity experiments with different lateral diffusion coefficients compared to the regional eddy-resolving 1/15° simulation in the subpolar North Atlantic. If the eddies are not resolved in subpolar latitudes (as in the case of 1/6° model), the GM90 parameterization with the coefficient close to 800 m² s⁻¹ provides the closest agreement with the solution of eddy-resolving 1/15° model.  相似文献   

Impact of partial steps and momentum advection schemes in a global ocean circulation model at eddy-permitting resolution   总被引：4，自引：6，他引：4  

Barnier Bernard  Gurvan Madec  Thierry Penduff  Jean-Marc Molines  Anne-Marie Treguier  Julien Le Sommer  Aike Beckmann  Arne Biastoch  Claus Böning  Joachim Dengg  Corine Derval  Edmée Durand  Sergei Gulev  Elizabeth Remy  Claude Talandier  Sébastien Theetten  Mathew Maltrud  Julie McClean  Beverly De Cuevas 《Ocean Dynamics》2006,56(5-6):543-567

Series of sensitivity tests were performed with a z-coordinate, global eddy-permitting (1/4°) ocean/sea-ice model (the ORCA-R025 model configuration developed for the DRAKKAR project) to carefully evaluate the impact of recent state-of-the-art numerical schemes on model solutions. The combination of an energy–enstrophy conserving (EEN) scheme for momentum advection with a partial step (PS) representation of the bottom topography yields significant improvements in the mean circulation. Well known biases in the representation of western boundary currents, such as in the Atlantic the detachment of the Gulf Stream, the path of the North Atlantic Current, the location of the Confluence, and the strength of the Zapiola Eddy in the south Atlantic, are partly corrected. Similar improvements are found in the Pacific, Indian, and Southern Oceans, and characteristics of the mean flow are generally much closer to observations. Comparisons with other state-of-the-art models show that the ORCA-R025 configuration generally performs better at similar resolution. In addition, the model solution is often comparable to solutions obtained at 1/6 or 1/10° resolution in some aspects concerning mean flow patterns and distribution of eddy kinetic energy. Although the reasons for these improvements are not analyzed in detail in this paper, evidence is shown that the combination of EEN with PS reduces numerical noise near the bottom, which is likely to affect current–topography interactions in a systematic way. We conclude that significant corrections of the mean biases presently seen in general circulation model solutions at eddy-permitting resolution can still be expected from the development of numerical methods, which represent an alternative to increasing resolution.  相似文献   

From rifting to spreading in the eastern Gulf of Aden: a geophysical survey of a young oceanic basin from margin to margin   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Sylvie Leroy  Pascal Gente  Marc Fournier  Elia d'Acremont  Philippe Patriat  Marie-Odile Beslier  Nicolas Bellahsen  Marcia Maia  Angelina Blais  Julie Perrot  Ali Al-Kathiri  Serge Merkouriev  Jean-Marc Fleury  Pierre-Yves Ruellan  Claude Lepvrier  Philippe Huchon 《地学学报》2004,16(4):185-192

A geophysical survey in the eastern Gulf of Aden, between the Alula–Fartak (52°E) and the Socotra (55°E) transform faults, was carried out during the Encens–Sheba cruise. The conjugate margins of the Gulf are steep, narrow and asymmetric. Asymmetry of the rifting process is highlighted by the conjugate margins (horst and graben in the north and deep basin in the south). Two transfer fault zones separate the margins into three segments, whereas the present‐day Sheba Ridge is divided into two segments by a transform discontinuity. Therefore segmentation of the Sheba Ridge and that of the conjugate margins did coincide during the early stages of oceanic spreading. Extensive magma production is evidenced in the central part of the western segment. Anomaly 5d was identified in the northern and southern parts of the oceanic basin, thus confirming that seafloor spreading in this part of Gulf of Aden started at least 17.6 Ma ago.  相似文献   

Impact of partial steps and momentum advection schemes in a global ocean circulation model at eddy-permitting resolution     

Bernard Barnier  Gurvan Madec  Thierry Penduff  Jean-Marc Molines  Anne-Marie Treguier  Julien Le Sommer  Aike Beckmann  Arne Biastoch  Claus Böning  Joachim Dengg  Corine Derval  Edmée Durand  Sergei Gulev  Elizabeth Remy  Claude Talandier  Sébastien Theetten  Mathew Maltrud  Julie McClean  Beverly De Cuevas 《Ocean Dynamics》2009,59(3):537-537

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Effects of hypoxia on benthic macrofauna and bioturbation in the Estuary and Gulf of St. Lawrence,Canada     

Rénald Belley  Philippe Archambault  Bjorn Sundby  Franck Gilbert  Jean-Marc Gagnon 《Continental Shelf Research》2010

The bottom water in the >300 m deep Lower St. Lawrence Estuary (LSLE) is persistently hypoxic in contrast to the normoxic bottom waters in the Gulf of St. Lawrence (GSL). We photographed the seabed at 11 stations in the Estuary and Gulf of St. Lawrence (EGSL) during the summers 2006 and 2007 and analysed the images to identify bioturbation traces (lebensspuren) and benthic macrofauna. The objective was to identify the environmental variables that influence the density and diversity of benthic macrofauna and bioturbation traces, and the differences that exist among regions with high, medium and low oxygen levels in the bottom water. The bottom water oxygen concentration is the variable that best explains the densities of total-traces as well as surface-traces. However, the density of these traces was higher in hypoxic regions than in well-oxygenated regions. The higher density of traces in the hypoxic region of the LSLE is mainly due to the activities of the surface deposit feeder Ophiura sp., which occurs in large numbers in this region. Possible explanations explored are stress behaviour of the organisms in response to hypoxia and different benthic macrofauna community structures between the hypoxic regions of the LSLE and the normoxic regions of the GSL. In the former, surface deposit feeders and low-oxygen tolerant species dominate over suspension feeders and low-oxygen intolerant species.  相似文献   

A developmental model of olivine morphology as a function of the cooling rate and the degree of undercooling   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

Faure  François  Trolliard  Gilles  Nicollet  Christian  Montel  Jean-Marc 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2003,145(2):251-263

We performed dynamic crystallization experiments in the CMAS system at 1 atm to investigate the evolution of the morphology of forsterite crystals as a function of cooling rate and degree of undercooling. In sections parallel to the (010) plane, we observed the evolution of the forsterite morphology from tablets to hopper (skeletal) crystals, and then to swallowtail shapes (dendritic morphology) for increased degree of undercooling. The other shapes described in the literature can be interpreted as particular sections of those three shapes. The onset of dendritic growth is due to a competition between the growth of the faces of the initial hopper crystal and dendrite overgrowths. The forsterite dendrites are formed by a succession of units which look like hopper shapes. This result has been tested by an additional set of experiments.  相似文献   

Microphytobenthic potential productivity estimated in three tidal embayments of the San Francisco Bay: A comparative study     

Jean-Marc?GuariniEmail author  James?E.?Cloern  Jody?Edmunds  Philippe?Gros 《Estuaries and Coasts》2002,25(3):409-417

In this paper we describe a three-step procedure to infer the spatial heterogeneity in microphytobenthos primary productivity at the scale of tidal estuaries and embayments. The first step involves local measurement of the carbon assimilation rate of benthic microalgae to determine the parameters of the photosynthesis-irradiance (P-E) curves (using non-linear optimization methods). In the next step, a resampling technique is used to rebuild pseudo-sampling distributions of the local productivity estimates; these provide error estimates for determining the significance level of differences between sites. The third step combines the previous results with deterministic models of tidal elevation and solar irradiance to compute mean and variance of the daily areal primary productivity over an entire intertidal mudflat area within each embayment. This scheme was applied on three different intertidal mudflat regions of the San Francisco Bay estuary during autumn 1998. Microphytobenthos productivity exhibits strong (ca. 3-fold) significant differences among the major sub-basins of San Francisco Bay. This spatial heterogeneity is attributed to two main causes: significant differences in the photosynthetic competence (P-E parameters) of the microphytobenthos in the different sub-basins, and spatial differences in the phase shifts between the tidal and solar cycles controlling the exposure of intertidal areas to sunlight. The procedure is general and can be used in other estuaries to assess the magnitude and patterns of spatial variability of microphytobenthos productivity at the level of the ecosystems.  相似文献