基于GM(1,1)优化模型的岩石边坡变形预报     

巫德斌  徐卫亚 《地质灾害与环境保护》2002,13(4):60-63

岩石边坡系统是一典型灰色系统，其变形发展过程可以用灰色预测模型完成。尽管传统GM（1，1）模型预测有很多成功的实例，但是也存在一些预测偏差过大的情况，必须对其进行优化。逐步迭代法GM（1，1）模型不仅收敛速度快，而且与原始数据库序列的凹凸性保护一致。利用自编的计算程序对马步坎边坡预测测点G1沉降和开裂进行预测分析，结果表明逐步迭代法GM（1，1）优化模型计算精度较传统GM（1，1）模型和背景构造法GM（1，1）优化模型高，较好地反映了岩石边坡的变形趋势。  相似文献   

A recursive decomposition algorithm for network seismic reliability evaluation     

Jie Li  Jun He 《地震工程与结构动力学》2002,31(8):1525-1539

A new probabilistic analytical approach to evaluate seismic system reliability of large lifeline systems is presented in this paper. The algorithm takes the shortest path from the source to the terminal of a node weight or edge weight network as decomposition policy, using the Boolean laws of set operation and probabilistic operation principal, a recursive decomposition process then could be constructed. For a general weight network, the modified Torrieri method (NTR/T method) is introduced to combine with the suggested algorithm. Therefore, the recursive decomposition algorithm may be applied to evaluate the seismic reliability of general lifeline systems. A series of case studies, including a practical district electric power network system and a large urban water supply system, show that the suggested algorithm supplies a useful probabilistic analysis means for the seismic reliability evaluation of large lifeline systems. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

小波变换在少震、弱震区地下水位数据分析中的应用   总被引：12，自引：2，他引：12  

敬少群  王佳卫  童迎世 《华南地震》2002,22(2):9-15

利用小波变换和多尺度分析原理，对位于少震弱震区的湖南的具有不同变化形态的6口典型井4年的水位日均值序列进行了分析。结果显示，通过多尺度分析可以很方便地将水位日均值序列中的高频部分与低频部分分开，而且对不同井孔的含水层系统而言，分离出去的频率成分的主模是不同的，这反应出不同井孔的含水层系统对同一频率的响应存在差异，主模的频率反映了正常背景下井孔－含水层系统的优势频率。Morlet小波分析的结果对时间序列的突然变化和周期结构都有很好的反映。  相似文献   

江西瑞昌1995年ML4.9级地震前后九江地震台倾斜固体潮汐变化分析     

赵爱平  吴敏 《华南地震》2002,22(4):79-84

通过月整点值数据文件和滑动值数据文件这两种数据处理形式。对九江台地倾斜资料进行调和分析计算。分析了M2潮汐因子与瑞昌ML4.9级地震的关系。认为存在震前短临异常或震后异常，并与趋势异常得到相互印证。  相似文献   

A comparison of tectonic ambient shear stress value in China with that in western USA     

陈培善  白彤霞  李保昆 《地震学报(英文版)》2002,15(5):503-509

Introduction The stress status of the earths crust is closely related to global structure, the direction of plate movement, the drive mechanism of plate, earthquake cause, etc. Therefore the researches of the stress status of the earths crust and the process of dynamic evolution are paid a great attention to by many people around the world (Zoback, Zoback, 1980; Zoback, et al, 1989; Zoback, 1989; Spence, 1997; Fuchs, 1997; Plenefish, Bonjer, 1997; Muller, et al, 1997; XU, et al, 1989; WAN…  相似文献   

一种计算固体潮观测数据改正值的新方法     

熊先保 《地震研究》2002,25(4):346-350

从标定前一天和标定当天的地形变前兆数据变化趋势入手，在分析当天数据结构的基础上采用最小二乘法原理，提出了一种计算数采改正值的新方法。经典型实例计算表明，该方法精度较高，效果明显。并对误差的来源作了进一步的分析。  相似文献   

Riparian alder fens — source or sink for nutrients and dissolved organic carbon? — 2. Major sources and sinks     

Lilian B. Busse  Günter Gunkel 《Limnologica》2002,32(1)

Natural riparian forest wetlands are known to be effective in their ability to remove nitrate by denitrification and sediments with attached phosphorus via sedimentation. On the other hand, litter input and decomposition is a process of crucial importance in cycling of nitrogen and phosphorus in a forest ecosystem.In this study we investigated the amount of nitrogen and phosphorus entering the alder fen ecosystem through leaf litter and its decomposition and the removal capacity of nitrogen and phosphorus by measuring denitrification and sedimentation in the alder fen.We found an average input of leaf litter during fall 1998 of 226 g m⁻² yr⁻¹ DW with nutrient concentration of 0.17% P and 1.6% N. This means a yearly input of 0.4 g m⁻² yr⁻¹ P and 3.6 g m⁻² yr⁻¹ N. The decomposition of leaf litter using litter bags with small and large mesh size resulted in bags with macroinvertebrates (large mesh size) and without macroinvertebrates (small mesh size). After 57 days the litter bags with macroinvertebrates had a decomposition rate of 79%.Denitrification was measured in May and June of 1997 using the acetylene inhibition technique on intact soil cores and slurry-experiments. The average annual denitrification rate was 0.2 g m⁻² yr⁻¹ N using data from the core experiments. The denitrification rate was higher after addition of nitrate, indicating that denitrification in the riparian alder fen is mainly controlled by nitrate supply.The sedimentation rate in the investigated alder fen ranged from 0.47 kg m⁻² yr⁻¹ DW to 4.46 kg m⁻² yr⁻¹ DW in 1998 depending on the study site and method we used. Sedimentation rates were lower in newly designed plate traps than in cylinder traps. The alder fen also showed lower rates than the adjacent creek Briese. Average phosphorus removal rate was 0.33 g m⁻² yr⁻¹ P.Input sources for the surface water of the alder fen are sediment mineralization and decomposition of leaf litter; output sources are sedimentation and denitrification. This study showed that a nutrient input of 24.58 kg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ N, 8.8 kg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ P and 419 kg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ DOC into the surface water of the alder fen is possible. Alder fens cannot improve water quality of an adjacent river system. This is only true for a nearly pristine alder fen with the hydrology of 10 months flooded conditions and 2 months non-flooding conditions a year.  相似文献   

唐山地震震源区构造应力场强度的初步分析   总被引：7，自引：3，他引：7  

赵建涛  崔效锋  谢富仁 《地震学报》2002,24(3):268-276

利用唐山地区丰富的震源机制解资料反演构造应力场，并结合构造物理研究手段，对唐山地震震源区现代构造应力场的3个主应力绝对量值进行了估算，给出了地壳介质参数取理论平均值的情况下，唐山地震震源区构造应力场３个主应力量值随深度的变化趋势．研究分析了摩擦系数c、孔隙压力P0和应力形因子 等参数与应力值的关系，发现最大主应力1的垂向增长率与摩擦系数c成正比，与孔隙压力P0和应力形因子成反比；而最小应力值3的垂向增长率与孔隙压力P0成正比，与摩擦系数c和应力形因子成反比．本文对应用震源机制解资料反演完整的应力张量进行了一次有意义的尝试．   相似文献   

中国与美国西部平均构造剪应力值的比较          下载免费PDF全文

陈培善  白彤霞  李保昆 《地震学报》2002,24(5):479-486

提出了一种估计一个地区平均构造剪应力值的方法．用这种方法，选取哈佛大学公布的1977～1999年共15 993次地震的矩张量数据，估计了美国西部19个地区、中国和邻区43个地区(每个地区为1010范围)的平均环境剪应力值．结果表明，美国西部南加州西部海域和南加州应力最高，达13.7和12.0 MPa，然后向北、向南和向东逐渐递减，但最小也达8.7 MPa，是最高值的63%．中国新疆西北部地区和西藏察隅地区应力水平最高，达17.2和12.9 MPa，比美国高．中国的华北、云南、四川、台湾和美国南加州的应力水平差不多．中国南北地震带的应力水平为13 MPa左右，比南加州略高．两个重要地区的平均剪应力值分布图，提供了地学的基本数据．这些结果可为研究地震活动的大背景提供依据，对研究强地面运动参数(如峰值加速度及反应谱等)的衰减关系也是有用的．   相似文献   

用大地电磁法研究构造走向及维性特征   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：4       下载免费PDF全文

杨长福  林长佑 《地震工程学报》2002,24(1):65-71

介绍了大地电磁GB张量分解法及其对它的改进法 ,可确定出更可靠更真实的区域构造走向 .将分解结果结合传统的座标旋转法所确定的视电阻率、相位、走向、偏离度等响应函数及维权参数进行分析 ,可得到更详细的电性结构维性质信息 .对兰州地区的实测资料研究表明 ,区域电性结构主体呈 2 D结构 ,走向方向大致为南北或东西向  相似文献