IPCC AR6的“产生影响的气候因子”评估框架     

王文  傅文睿 《气候变化研究进展》2021,17(6):719-725

IPCC第六次评估报告（AR6）第一工作组报告提出了基于“产生影响的气候因子”（CID）的气候变化评估框架,以一组影响社会或生态系统的气候状态为基础进行气候变化评估。这个CID评估框架有7个类型,33个气候因子,每个因子可以针对被影响对象采用不同的评估指标。CID变化具有时间尺度差异性与不可逆性、突变性与临界点、凸现时间、复合性以及受影响主体依赖性等重要特征。基于CID的气候变化评估框架有助于更客观、中立、全面地评估气候变化给不同部门带来的影响和风险。  相似文献   

IPCC AR6报告解读：地球能量收支、气候反馈和气候敏感度     

张华  王菲  赵树云  谢冰 《气候变化研究进展》2021,17(6):691-698

文中对IPCC第六次评估报告（AR6）第一工作组（WGI）报告的第七章关于地球能量收支、气候反馈和气候敏感度中的重要内容进行了凝练,并简要总结该方面的最新研究成果和结论。评估显示,自工业革命以来,人类活动造成的有效辐射强迫（ERF）为2.72 [1.96~3.48] W/m²,其中,均匀混合温室气体的贡献为3.32 [3.03~3.61] W/m²,气溶胶的贡献为-1.1 [-1.7~-0.4] W/m²。净的气候反馈参数为-1.16 [-1.81~-0.51] W/(m²∙℃),云仍然是气候反馈整体不确定性的最大来源。平衡态气候敏感度（ECS）和瞬态气候响应（TCR）可用于评估全球平均地表气温对强迫的响应,是衡量全球气候响应的有效手段。ECS和TCR的最佳估计分别为3.0 [2.0~5.0]℃和1.8 [1.2~2.4]℃。  相似文献   

基于CMIP6模式优化集合平均预估21世纪全球陆地生态系统总初级生产力变化   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

黄禄丰  朱再春  黄萌田  赵茜  马伟蕊  曾辉 《气候变化研究进展》2021,17(5):514-524

利用国际耦合模式比较计划第六阶段(CMIP6)中18个地球系统模式总初级生产力(GPP)模拟数据,基于传统的多模式集合平均(MME)和可靠集合平均方法(REA),在4个未来情景(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5)下预估了21世纪全球陆地生态系统GPP的变化量,并分析了GPP变化的驱动因子。研究结果表明：在4个未来情景下,基于REA方法预估的全球陆地生态系统年GPP在未来时期(2068—2100年)比历史时期(1982—2014年)分别增长了(14.85±3.32)、(28.43±4.97)、(37.66±7.61)和(45.89±9.21)Pg C,其增量大小和不确定性都明显低于MME方法。在4个情景下,大气CO₂浓度增长对GPP变化的贡献最大,基于REA方法计算的贡献占比分别为140%、137%、115%和75%;除SSP5-8.5(24%)外,其他情景下升温均导致全球陆地生态系统GPP降低(-42%、-37%、-16%),部分抵消了CO₂施肥效应的正面贡献。温度的影响存在纬度差异：升温在低纬度地区对GPP有负向贡献,在中高纬度地区为正向贡献。降水和辐射变化对GPP变化的贡献相对较小。  相似文献   

应对气候变化进程中纳入性别考虑的进展与启示     

刘蕾 《气候变化研究进展》2021,17(5):548-558

女性在应对气候变化中处于不利地位,也是应对气候变化中不可忽视的力量。国际社会已逐渐认识到在应对气候变化进程中纳入性别考虑的重要意义,性别议题在气候谈判中的主流化趋势明显,《联合国气候变化框架公约》执行层面纳入性别考虑取得了长足的进展,以全球环境基金、绿色气候基金为代表的《联合国气候变化框架公约》资金机制已将性别政策纳入机构政策体系,并积极在项目层面推动性别政策的实施。虽然国际气候变化领域的性别主流化工作取得了较大进展,但仍存在女性参与气候变化决策的程度不足、减缓领域纳入性别考虑的程度不足等问题。目前中国气候变化领域对性别的关注不足,建议加强气候变化领域的性别问题研究,为履约工作提供支撑;在应对气候变化相关的政策体系中纳入性别考虑,加强与性别领域的沟通协作;加强气候变化相关机构性别主流化能力建设,明确职责安排;加强气候变化领域国内项目、“一带一路”项目和“南南合作”项目的性别主流化;切实加强中国女性应对气候变化能力,提高女性对气候行动的参与度。  相似文献   

IPCC AR6报告解读：气候系统对太阳辐射干预响应     

曹龙 《气候变化研究进展》2021,17(6):671-684

IPCC第六次评估报告（AR6）第一工作组报告评估了太阳辐射干预（Solar radiation modification,SRM）对气候系统和碳循环的影响。在大幅度减排基础上,太阳辐射干预有潜力作为应对气候变化的备用措施。目前,对于太阳辐射干预气候影响的评估都是基于模式模拟结果。评估主要结论如下：太阳辐射干预可以在全球和区域尺度上抵消一部分温室气体增加造成的气候变化（高信度);但是太阳辐射干预无法在全球和区域尺度上完全抵消温室气体增加引起的气候变化（几乎确定);有可能通过适当的太阳辐射干预设计,同时实现多个温度变化减缓目标（中等信度);在高强度温室气体排放情景下,如果太阳辐射干预实施后突然终止,并且这种终止长时间持续,将会造成快速的气候变化（高信度);如果在减排和CO₂移除的情况下,太阳辐射干预的实施强度逐渐减小至零,将显著降低太阳辐射干预突然终止产生的快速气候变化风险（中等信度);太阳辐射干预会通过降温作用,促进陆地和海洋对大气CO₂的吸收（中等信度),但是太阳辐射干预无法缓解海洋酸化（高信度);太阳辐射干预对其他生物化学循环影响的不确定性大。由于对云-气溶胶-辐射过程的相互作用和微物理过程认知有限,目前对平流层气溶胶注入、海洋低云亮化、高层卷云变薄等太阳辐射干预方法的冷却潜力和气候效应的认知还有很大的不确定性。  相似文献   

我国台风高发期东海和南海海区GIIRS/FY-4A温度反演廓线精度研究     

黄艺伟  陈淑仪  何敏  张蕾  赵兵科  刘琼  陈勇航  邬贤文 《热带气象学报》2021,37(2):277-288

基于欧洲中期天气预报中心再分析资料ERA5,对GIIRS/FY-4A温度反演廓线在我国台风高发期东海和南海海区的反演精度进行研究,结果表明:（1）东海海区,无云时GIIRS质量控制0的数据总体RMSE为1.71 K,150~450 hPa高度范围内RMSE小于1 K,450 hPa至近海面RMSE在2 K以内。质量控制1的数据反演精度低且随高度的增加误差增大;有云时,质量控制0和1的反演数据总体RMSE为4.72 K和5.55 K。（2）南海海区,无云时,质量控制0的数据总体RMSE为1.67 K,150~800 hPa范围内RMSE小于1 K,反演精度较东海海区略高。质量控制1的数据RMSE为5.07 K。有云时,质量控制0和1的数据RMSE为6.68 K和7.56 K。（3）随着台风“利奇马”等级加强直至最大等级（海上发展阶段）,GIIRS可信度较高的反演数据量呈现下降趋势,反演台风周边热力结构存在诸多不确定性,需要借助其他资料进行验证。   相似文献   

A CRPS-Based Spatial Technique for the Verification of Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts     

赵滨  张博  李子良 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2021,27(1):24-33

Traditional precipitation skill scores are affected by the well-known“double penalty”problem caused by the slight spatial or temporal mismatches between forecasts and observations. The fuzzy (neighborhood) method has been proposed for deterministic simulations and shown some ability to solve this problem. The increasing resolution of ensemble forecasts of precipitation means that they now have similar problems as deterministic forecasts. We developed an ensemble precipitation verification skill score, i.e., the Spatial Continuous Ranked Probability Score (SCRPS), and used it to extend spatial verification from deterministic into ensemble forecasts. The SCRPS is a spatial technique based on the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) and the fuzzy method. A fast binomial random variation generator was used to obtain random indexes based on the climatological mean observed frequency, which were then used in the reference score to calculate the skill score of the SCRPS. The verification results obtained using daily forecast products from the ECMWF ensemble forecasts and quantitative precipitation estimation products from the OPERA datasets during June-August 2018 shows that the spatial score is not affected by the number of ensemble forecast members and that a consistent assessment can be obtained. The score can reflect the performance of ensemble forecasts in modeling precipitation and thus can be widely used.  相似文献   

Intercomparison of CRA-Interim Precipitation Products with ERA5 and JRA-55     

叶梦姝  姚秀萍  张涛  许小峰  王式功 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2021,27(2):136-147

By using the hourly data from surface meteorological stations in China, the 3-hour precipitation data from CRA-Interim (Chinese Reanalysis-Interim), ERA5 (ECMWF Reanalysis 5) and JRA-55 (Japanese Reanalysis-55) are compared, both on the spatial-temporal distributions and on bias with observation precipitation in China. The results show that: (1) The three sets of reanalysis datasets can all reflect the basic spatial distribution characteristics of annual average precipitation in China. The simulation of topographic forced precipitation in complex terrain by CRA-interim is more detailed, while CRA-interim has larger negative bias in central and East China, and larger positive bias in southwest China. (2) In terms of seasonal precipitation, the three sets of reanalysis datasets overestimate the precipitation in the heavy rainfall zone of spring and summer, especially in southwest China. CRA interim’s location of the rain belt in the First Rainy Season in South China is west by south, the summer precipitation has positive bias in southwest and South China. (3) All of the reanalysis datasets can basically reflect the distribution difference of inter-annual variation of drought and flood, but the overall the CRA-Interim generally shows negative bias, while the ERA5 and JRA-55 exhibit positive bias. (4) For the diurnal variation of precipitation in summer, all the reanalysis datasets perform better in simulating the daytime precipitation than in the night, and bias of CRA-interim is less in southeast and northeast than elsewhere. (5) ERA5 generally performs the best on the evaluation of quantitative precipitation forecast, the JRA-55 is the next, followed by the CRA-Interim. CRA-Interim has higher missing rate and lower threat score for heavy rains; however, at the level of downpour, the CRA-Interim performs slightly better.  相似文献   

对IPCC第六次评估报告中有关干旱变化的解读   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

姜大膀  王晓欣 《大气科学学报》2021,44(5):650-653

政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）于2021年8月发布了第六次评估报告（AR6）自然科学基础卷的决策者摘要,主要对自2013年第五次评估报告（AR5）以来的气候变化科学研究进展进行了系统的评估,并使用新一代气候模式在新的共享社会经济路径情景下对未来气候变化进行了预估。本文基于AR5和AR6相关章节素材,解读了干旱变化的评估结论。  相似文献   

The Digital Belt and Road program in support of regional sustainability     

Huadong Guo  Yubao Qiu  Massimo Menenti  Fang Chen  Paul F. Uhlir 《International Journal of Digital Earth》2018,11(7):657-669

The Belt and Road initiative has a significant focus on infrastructure, trade, and economic development across a vast region, and it also provides significant opportunities for sustainable development. The combined pressure of climate variability, intensified use of resources, and the fragility of ecosystems make it very challenging, however, to achieve future sustainability. To develop the path in a sustainable way, it is important to have a comprehensive understanding of these issues across nations and evaluate them in a scientific and well-informed approach. In this context, the Digital Belt and Road (DBAR) program was initiated as an international venture to share expertise, knowledge, technologies, and data to demonstrate the role of Earth observation science and technology and big Earth data applications to support large-scale development. In this paper, we identify pressing challenges, present the research priorities and foci of the DBAR program, and propose solutions where big Earth data can make significant contributions. This paper calls for further joint actions and collaboration to build a digital silk road in support of sustainable development at national, regional and global levels.  相似文献