Impact of missing flow on active inundation areas and transformation of parafluvial wetlands in Punarbhaba–Tangon river basin of Indo-Bangladesh     

Swades Pal 《国际地球制图》2019,34(10):1055-1074

Punarbhaba river of Indo-Bangladesh has experienced hydro-ecological alteration after installation of Komardanga dam in 1992 and consequently wetland and inundation areas have undergone into transformation. The present work intends to explore the impact of flow attenuation on contemporary and upcoming flood extent and flood plain wetlands. In post-dam condition, average and maximum flows are attenuated by 36 and 41%, respectively, and as a result the active flood prone area is squeezed considerably by 39.72%. Average flood water depth is also reduced by 37.87% (4.45metre) after flow modification. Due to shrinkages of flood prone areas, wetland area is also reduced from 215.70 to 90.40 km² and larger part of the present wetland area is under stress and critical state. Predicted flood prone areas in next 25 years will be 328.91 km² and consequently 65.63 km² wetland areas may further be under hydro-ecological threats. Release of ecological flow is essential to restore and preserve the wetland.  相似文献   

Simulation of the spatio‐temporal extent of groundwater flooding using statistical methods of hydrograph classification and lumped parameter models     

K. A. Upton  C. R. Jackson 《水文研究》2011,25(12):1949-1963

This article presents the development of a relatively low cost and rapidly applicable methodology to simulate the spatio‐temporal occurrence of groundwater flooding in chalk catchments. In winter 2000/2001 extreme rainfall resulted in anomalously high groundwater levels and groundwater flooding in many chalk catchments of northern Europe and the southern United Kingdom. Groundwater flooding was extensive and prolonged, occurring in areas where it had not been recently observed and, in places, lasting for 6 months. In many of these catchments, the prediction of groundwater flooding is hindered by the lack of an appropriate tool, such as a distributed groundwater model, or the inability of models to simulate extremes adequately. A set of groundwater hydrographs is simulated using a simple lumped parameter groundwater model. The number of models required is minimized through the classification and grouping of groundwater level time‐series using principal component analysis and cluster analysis. One representative hydrograph is modelled then transposed to other observed hydrographs in the same group by the process of quantile mapping. Time‐variant groundwater level surfaces, generated using the discrete set of modelled hydrographs and river elevation data, are overlain on a digital terrain model to predict the spatial extent of groundwater flooding. The methodology is applied to the Pang and Lambourn catchments in southern England for which monthly groundwater level time‐series exist for 52 observation boreholes covering the period 1975–2004. The results are validated against observed groundwater flood extent data obtained from aerial surveys and field mapping. The method is shown to simulate the spatial and temporal occurrence of flooding during the 2000/2001 flood event accurately. British Geological Survey © NERC 2011. Hydrological Processes © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Assessing possible changes in flood frequency due to climate change in mid‐sized watersheds in New York State,USA     

Stephen B. Shaw  Susan J. Riha 《水文研究》2011,25(16):2542-2550

The frequency of flooding is often presumed to increase with climate change because of projected increases in rainfall intensities. In this paper, using 50‐plus years of historical discharge and meteorological data from three watersheds in different physiographic regions of New York State, USA, we find that annual maximum stream discharges are associated with 20% or less of the annual maximum rainfall events. Instead of rainfall events, approximately 20% of annual maximum stream discharges are associated with annual maximum snowmelt events while 60% of annual maximum discharges are associated with moderate rainfall amounts and very wet soil conditions. To explore the potential for changes in future flood risk, we employed a compound frequency distribution that assumes annual maximum discharges can be modelled by combining the cumulative distribution functions of discharges resulting from annual maximum rainfall, annual maximum snowmelt, and occurrences of moderate rain on wet soils. Basing on a compound frequency distribution comprised of univariate general extreme value (GEV) and gamma distributions, we found that a hypothetical 20% increase in the magnitude of rainfall‐related stream discharge results in little change in 96th percentile annual maximum discharge. For the 99th percentile discharge, two waterbodies in our study had a 10% or less increase in annual maximum discharge when annual maximum rainfall‐related discharges increased 20% while the third waterbody had a 16% increase in annual maximum discharges. Additionally, in some cases, annual maximum discharges could be offset by a reduction in the discharge resulting from annual maximum snowmelt events. While only intended as a heuristic tool to explore the interaction among different flood‐causing mechanisms, use of a compound flood frequency distribution suggests a case can be made that not all waterbodies in humid, cold regions will see extensive changes in flooding due to increased rainfall intensities. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A broad‐scale assessment of the effect of improved soil management on catchment baseflow index     

I. P. Holman  T. M. Hess  S. C. Rose 《水文研究》2011,25(16):2563-2572

Although the importance of sustainable soil management is recognized, there are many threats to soils including widespread soil structural degradation. This reduces infiltration through the soil surface and/or the percolation of water through the soil profile, with important consequences for crop yields, nutrient cycling and the hydrological response of catchments. This article describes a broad‐scale modelling approach to assess the potential effect that improved agricultural soil management, through reduced soil structural degradation, may have on the baseflow index (BFI) of catchments across England and Wales. A daily soil–water balance model was used to simulate the indicative BFI of 45 696 thirty‐year model runs for different combinations of soil type, soil/field condition, land cover class and climate which encapsulate the variability across England and Wales. The indicative BFI of catchments was then calculated by upscaling the results by spatial weighting. WaSim model outputs of indicative BFI were within the 95% confidence intervals of the national‐average BFI values given for the Hydrology of Soil Type (HOST ? ) classes for 26 of the 28 classes. At the catchment scale, the concordance correlation coefficient between the BFI from the WaSim model outputs and those derived from HOST was 0·83. Plausible improvements in agricultural soil/field condition produced modest simulated increases of up to 10% in the indicative BFI in most catchments across England and Wales, although for much of southern and northern England the increases were less than 5%. The results suggest that improved soil management might partially mitigate the expected adverse effects of climate change on baseflow to rivers. Healthy, well‐functioning soils produce many additional benefits such as better agricultural yields and reduced pollutant movement, so improved soil management should provide win‐win opportunities for society, agricultural systems and the environment and provide resilience to some of the expected environmental impacts of climate change. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

淮河流域洪水极值非平稳性特征   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

孙鹏  孙玉燕  张强  姚蕊  温庆志  王友贞  蒋尚明 《湖泊科学》2018,30(4):1123-1137

基于淮河流域9个水文站的月径流量数据,采用Pettitt非参数检验法、GAMLSS模型与洪水频率分析模型等方法,揭示了淮河中上游洪水频率的演变规律,分析基于平稳性和非平稳性条件下的洪水发生强度及洪涝灾害所带来的影响.研究发现:潢川、横排头和蚌埠站点未发生明显变异,其余6个站点发生均值或方差变异,变异时间主要集中在2000年左右.淮河流域的最优拟合分布函数是Weibull;班台、蒋家集和横排头站适宜于非平稳性模型,其余站点选择平稳性模型.各站点非平稳性条件下10年和20年一遇设计流量值与平稳性条件下皮尔逊Ⅲ型分布设计流量值相差不大,但30年一遇、50年一遇和100年一遇的设计流量相差逐渐变大.横排头站和蚌埠站洪水放大因子随着时间增加呈上升趋势且大于1,百年一遇重现期不足80年.各站点年最大洪峰流量与淮河流域、安徽省水灾面积通过了95%或99%的显著性检验.  相似文献   

The June 2013 Alberta catastrophic flooding event – part 2: fine‐scale precipitation and associated features          下载免费PDF全文

B. Kochtubajda  R. E. Stewart  S. Boodoo  J. M. Thériault  Y. Li  A. Liu  C. Mooney  R. Goodson  K. Szeto 《水文研究》2016,30(26):4917-4933

Data obtained from a variety of sources including the Canadian Lightning Detection Network, weather radars, weather stations and operational numerical weather model analyses were used to address the evolution of precipitation during the June 2013 southern Alberta flood. The event was linked to a mid‐level closed low pressure system to the west of the region and a surface low pressure region initially to its south. This configuration brought warm, moist unstable air into the region that led to dramatic, organized convection with an abundance of lightning and some hail. Such conditions occurred in the southern parts of the region whereas the northern parts were devoid of lightning. Initially, precipitation rates were high (extreme 15‐min rainfall rates up to 102 mm h^?1 were measured) but decreased to lower values as the precipitation shifted to long‐lived stratiform conditions. Both the convective and stratiform precipitation components were affected by the topography. Similar flooding events, such as June 2002, have occurred over this region although the 2002 event was colder and precipitation was not associated with substantial convection over southwest Alberta. Copyright © 2016 Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada. Hydrological Processes. © John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

低渗透油藏CO2驱过程中含水率变化规律   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

俞宏伟  杨思玉  李实  杨永智 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2011,41(4):1028-1032,1047

通过国内外多个油田水驱后实施CO2驱的矿场实例研究,发现注入CO2后很多油井存在含水率下降的现象;这种现象发生在CO2驱的整个开发阶段,包括注气初期阶段CO2未到达生产井、生产井见气阶段以及高气油比阶段。重点讨论了生产井见气前的开发规律,在该阶段油藏内以油水两相渗流为主,不受三相渗流作用的影响。通过现场动态反应并结合室内细管和长岩心实验,揭示了CO2与油、水2种介质的相互作用,得到了两个结论:第一是始于低含水阶段的CO2驱过程中气体穿越地层水驱替地层油到达生产井;第二是始于高含水阶段的CO2驱替规律在不同级别低渗透岩心中的差异非常明显:对于特低渗岩心,CO2突破前的采出程度占CO2驱总采出程度的73.27%,CO2突破后的采出程度占26.73%,对于一般低渗岩心,CO2突破前的采出程度仅占CO2驱总采出程度的16.72%,而CO2突破后的采出程度占到了CO2驱总采出程度的83.28%。  相似文献   

Determination of discharge coefficients for a cross-flooding duct     

Mikael Stening  Juha Järvelä  Pekka Ruponen  Risto Jalonen 《Ocean Engineering》2011,38(4):570-578

Cross-flooding ducts are used to equalize asymmetric flooding and, thus, to decrease the heel angle of a ship in an emergency. The present design guidelines for cross-flooding arrangements involve uncertainties associated with the effect of variable structural factors. In this study, scale model experiments were carried out to determine discharge coefficients of a typical cross-duct, with a focus on the effect of structural components such as the girders, stiffeners, and web frame. Flow conditions and configuration of the components were varied in the experiments. The structural stiffeners in the cross-duct were found to notably increase the discharge coefficient whereas the effects of the web frame and the inclination of the duct at an angle of 7° were negligible. The experimentally obtained discharge coefficient values for the cross-duct were considerably lower than the corresponding values computed according to the generally used guidelines of the IMO Resolution MSC.245(83). This indicates that the geometrical properties of the girders in the cross-ducts need to be properly addressed to avoid overestimating the discharge coefficients. Overall, the experimental results formed an indispensable dataset for the validation and further development of CFD approaches.  相似文献   

聚驱后二元复合泡沫驱不同气液比实验研究     

王海峰  李金珠  苏伟明  栗钢  吕正 《海洋地质译丛》2011,(3):64-67

通过对比聚驱后聚表二元复合泡沫驱四种不同气液比（1：2、1：1、2：1、3：1）的实验结果,优选出最优的气液比,并对泡沫驱油机理进行进一步的阐述,为现场矿场试验提供理论依据和参考。实验结果表明,在水驱和聚驱效果相似的条件下,聚驱后二元复合泡沫驱四种不同气液比方案采出程度的大小关系是3：1〈1：2〈2：1〈1：1,最优气液比为1：1。  相似文献   

Deterministic and ensemble storm surge prediction for Atlantic Canada with lead times of hours to ten days     

《Ocean Modelling》2015

Regional deterministic and ensemble surge prediction systems (RDSPS and RESPS respectively) are used to forecast sea levels off the east of Canada and northeast US. The surge models for the RDSPS and RESPS have grid spacings of 1/30° and 1/12° respectively. The models are driven by surface air pressure and 10 m winds generated by operational global deterministic and ensemble prediction systems that are run operationally by the Canadian Meteorological Centre. Surge forecasts are evaluated for the period 1 March, 2013 to 31 March 2014. Based on traditional statistics (e.g., standard deviation of the difference between observations and predictions) both systems are shown to have skill in forecasting surges six days into the future. It is shown however that skill exists beyond six days if allowance is made for errors in the timing of large surges. The usefulness of the RESPS is demonstrated for two positive surges (important for coastal flooding and erosion) and a negative surge (important for safe navigation in shallow water). It is shown that the RESPS can identify events not forecast by the RDSPS, and can also add useful additional information on the timing of the surge, an important consideration in tidally dominated waters. Several new types of display are used to illustrate the sort of information that can be generated by the RESPS to support the issuers of warnings of unusually high and low total water levels.  相似文献