The Three American Wests     

Joe Weber 《The Professional geographer》2019,71(2):239-252

In the twenty-first century, there are three American Wests, which cut across cultural, political, physical, and economic boundaries. Parts of the West are booming, building homes, and adding population; others are legally off limits to such development; and much of the West has been bypassed by such development and growth. These are called here the Booming West, Protected West, and Bypassed West. Maps of climate, political boundaries, ethnic and racial identities, or presidential voting patterns do not match these three Wests. Each West has a different relationship to the others and might see them as threats or opportunities, and each West can be expected to grow in different areas at the expense of other Wests. The boundaries between the three Wests could be important locations; sharp transitions can exist between Wests, perhaps nowhere more so than where a fast growing metro area abuts a national park or forest boundary. Finally, the effects of climate change cut across the three Wests and have different implications for their future. Continued population growth will further emphasize the boundaries between each of the three Wests and raise the stakes for their control.  相似文献   

Stage‐discharge uncertainty derived with a non‐stationary rating curve in the Choluteca River,Honduras     

I. Westerberg  J.‐L. Guerrero  J. Seibert  K. J. Beven  S. Halldin 《水文研究》2011,25(4):603-613

Uncertainty in discharge data must be critically assessed before data can be used in, e.g. water resources estimation or hydrological modelling. In the alluvial Choluteca River in Honduras, the river‐bed characteristics change over time as fill, scour and other processes occur in the channel, leading to a non‐stationary stage‐discharge relationship and difficulties in deriving consistent rating curves. Few studies have investigated the uncertainties related to non‐stationarity in the stage‐discharge relationship. We calculated discharge and the associated uncertainty with a weighted fuzzy regression of rating curves applied within a moving time window, based on estimated uncertainties in the observed rating data. An 18‐year‐long dataset with unusually frequent ratings (1268 in total) was the basis of this study. A large temporal variability in the stage‐discharge relationship was found especially for low flows. The time‐variable rating curve resulted in discharge estimate differences of ? 60 to + 90% for low flows and ± 20% for medium to high flows when compared to a constant rating curve. The final estimated uncertainty in discharge was substantial and the uncertainty limits varied between ? 43 to + 73% of the best discharge estimate. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A physically constrained wavelet-aided statistical model for multi-decadal groundwater dynamics predictions     

Fatih Gordu  Mahmood H. Nachabe 《水文研究》2021,35(8):e14308

A physically constrained wavelet-aided statistical model (PCWASM) is presented to analyse and predict monthly groundwater dynamics on multi-decadal or longer time scales. The approach retains the simplicity of regression modelling but is constrained by temporal scales of processes responsible for groundwater level variation, including aquifer recharge and pumping. The methodology integrates statistical correlations enhanced with wavelet analysis into established principles of groundwater hydraulics including convolution, superposition and the Cooper–Jacob solution. The systematic approach includes (1) identification of hydrologic trends and correlations using cross-correlation and multi-time scale wavelet analyses; (2) integrating temperature-based evapotranspiration and groundwater pumping stresses and (3) assessing model prediction performances using fixed-block k-fold cross-validation and split calibration-validation methods. The approach is applied at three hydrogeologicaly distinct sites in North Florida in the United States using over 40 years of monthly groundwater levels. The systematic approach identifies two patterns of cross-correlations between groundwater levels and historical rainfall, indicating low-frequency variabilities are critical for long-term predictions. The models performed well for predicting monthly groundwater levels from 7 to 22 years with less than 2.1 ft (0.7 m) errors. Further evaluation by the moving-block bootstrap regression indicates the PCWASM can be a reliable tool for long-term groundwater level predictions. This study provides a parsimonious approach to predict multi-decadal groundwater dynamics with the ability to discern impacts of pumping and climate change on aquifer levels. The PCWASM is computationally efficient and can be implemented using publicly available datasets. Thus, it should provide a versatile tool for managers and researchers for predicting multi-decadal monthly groundwater levels under changing climatic and pumping impacts over a long time period.  相似文献   

利用多元回归分析反演西南印度洋区域海底地形     

范雕  李姗姗  杨军军  孟书宇  邢志斌  张驰  冯进凯 《测绘学报》2020,49(2):147-161

针对海底地形与重力异常和重力异常垂直梯度在相应频段呈现强线性相关的特点,引入多元回归分析技术,提出并详细推导了联合多元重力数据的海底地形建模方法。然后,在西南印度洋SWIR(Southwest India Ridge)所在部分海域开展了海底地形反演试验及地形地貌分析研究。试验结果表明:6种海深模型中,基于多元回归分析技术构建的海深模型(BDVG模型)检核精度最高,相较于S&S V18.1模型和ETOPO1模型精度分别提高了11.51%和57.81%左右;2000 m以上水深海域,各个海深模型的检核精度较高,相对误差波动较小,反映了深海海域具有良好的反演效果;地形起伏剧烈海域或者浅海海域,BDVG海深模型,相较于以重力异常和重力异常垂直梯度作为单一输入源建立的BDG模型和BVGG模型相对误差及相对误差波动变化较小,反映了BDVG模型拥有更好的稳定性,从而体现了联合反演的必要性和优势。Indomed FZ—Gallieni FZ上唯一轴部缺失裂谷洋脊段(27洋脊段)目前属于岩浆供应充足阶段,构造作用的海底扩张对其影响较小;同时由于对称裂离方式影响,27洋脊段沿轴南北对称分布有地形隆起。  相似文献   

The effect of leaf-on and leaf-off forest canopy conditions on LiDAR derived estimations of forest structural diversity     

《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2020

Forest structural diversity metrics describing diversity in tree size and crown shape within forest stands can be used as indicators of biodiversity. These diversity metrics can be generated using airborne laser scanning (LiDAR) data to provide a rapid and cost effective alternative to ground-based inspection. Measures of tree height derived from LiDAR can be significantly affected by the canopy conditions at the time of data collection, in particular whether the canopy is under leaf-on or leaf-off conditions, but there have been no studies of the effects on structural diversity metrics. The aim of this research is to assess whether leaf-on/leaf-off changes in canopy conditions during LiDAR data collection affect the accuracy of calculated forest structural diversity metrics. We undertook a quantitative analysis of LiDAR ground detection and return height, and return height diversity from two airborne laser scanning surveys collected under leaf-on and leaf-off conditions to assess initial dataset differences. LiDAR data were then regressed against field-derived tree size diversity measurements using diversity metrics from each LiDAR dataset in isolation and, where appropriate, a mixture of the two. Models utilising leaf-off LiDAR diversity variables described DBH diversity, crown length diversity and crown width diversity more successfully than leaf-on (leaf-on models resulted in R² values of 0.66, 0.38 and 0.16, respectively, and leaf-off models 0.67, 0.37 and 0.23, respectively). When LiDAR datasets were combined into one model to describe tree height diversity and DBH diversity the models described 75% and 69% of the variance (R² of 0.75 for tree height diversity and 0.69 for DBH diversity). The results suggest that tree height diversity models derived from airborne LiDAR, collected (and where appropriate combined) under any seasonal conditions, can be used to differentiate between simple single and diverse multiple storey forest structure with confidence.  相似文献   

融合多源时空数据的城市火灾危险性评估     

赵晓旭 《测绘通报》2020,(5):101-106

城市层面的火灾风险评估主要包括火灾危险性、危害性及救援能力等方面。本文选取火灾危险性评估进行针对性研究，在大数据思维的指导下，以相关关系代替因果关系，采用多源数据对评估指标权重、分值进行率定，得出福州市城区火灾危险性时空分布图。首先利用高德地图API对消防历史出警记录进行地址解析，将近万条火灾出警地址空间落点，获得福州市历史火灾空间分布；然后综合城市用地性质现状、用地开发性质、人口分布热力图等多源异构数据，探索其与历史火灾空间分布的相关性；最后以福州城区为例，初步实现具有充分数理支撑的火灾危险性评估方法，形成火灾危险性动态评估成果，为城市消防规划等提供支撑和依据。  相似文献   

Assessing regression‐based statistical approaches for downscaling precipitation over North America          下载免费PDF全文

Jie Chen  François P. Brissette  Robert Leconte 《水文研究》2014,28(9):3482-3504

This paper assesses linear regression‐based methods in downscaling daily precipitation from the general circulation model (GCM) scale to a regional climate model (RCM) scale (45‐ and 15‐km grids) and down to a station scale across North America. Traditional downscaling experiments (linking reanalysis/dynamical model predictors to station precipitation) as well as nontraditional experiments such as predicting dynamic model precipitation from larger‐scale dynamic model predictors or downscaling dynamic model precipitation from predictors at the same scale are conducted. The latter experiments were performed to address predictability limit and scale issues. The results showed that the downscaling of daily precipitation occurrence was rarely successful at all scales, although results did constantly improve with the increased resolution of climate models. The explained variances for downscaled precipitation amounts at the station scales were low, and they became progressively better when using predictors from a higher‐resolution climate model, thus showing a clear advantage in using predictors from RCMs driven by reanalysis at its boundaries, instead of directly using reanalysis data. The low percentage of explained variances resulted in considerable underestimation of daily precipitation mean and standard deviation. Although downscaling GCM precipitation from GCM predictors (or RCM precipitation from RCM predictors) cannot really be considered downscaling, as there is no change in scale, the exercise yields interesting information as to the limit in predictive ability at the station scale. This was especially clear at the GCM scale, where the inability of downscaling GCM precipitation from GCM predictors demonstrates that GCM precipitation‐generating processes are largely at the subgrid scale (especially so for convective events), thus indicating that downscaling precipitation at the station scale from GCM scale is unlikely to be successful. Although results became better at the RCM scale, the results indicate that, overall, regression‐based approaches did not perform well in downscaling precipitation over North America. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Inferring air–water temperature relationships from river and catchment properties          下载免费PDF全文

M. F. Johnson  R. L. Wilby  J. A. Toone 《水文研究》2014,28(6):2912-2928

Water temperature (Tw) is a key determinant of freshwater ecosystem status and cause for concern under a changing climate. Hence, there is growing interest in the feasibility of moderating rising Tw through management of riparian shade. The Loughborough University Temperature Network (LUTEN) is an array of 36 water and air temperature (Ta) monitoring sites in the English Peak District set‐up to explore the predictability of local Tw, given Ta, river reach, and catchment properties. Year 1 of monitoring shows that 84%–94% of variance in daily Tw is explained by Ta. However, site‐specific logistic regression parameters exhibit marked variation and dependency on upstream riparian shade. Perennial spring flows in the lower River Dove also affect regression model parameters and strongly buffer daily and seasonal mean Tw. The asymptote of the models (i.e. maximum expected Tw) is particularly sensitive to groundwater inputs. We conclude that reaches with spring flows potentially offer important thermal refuges for aquatic organisms against expected long‐term warming of rivers and should be afforded special protection. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

土耳其卡赞天然碱矿溶采对接井工程HSE管理          下载免费PDF全文

涂运中  李保红  隆东  刘海翔  王万  刘一枫  盛春 《探矿工程》2020,47(8):85-93

HSE管理是现代企业走出国门、承揽国际大型项目的必备条件，并且在现代工程管理中具有越来越重要的地位。土耳其卡赞天然碱矿水溶开采对接井工程的实施过程中，在借鉴国内外相关行业经验的基础上，结合项目自身特点，成立了HSE管理机构，加强了人员安全培训和机械设备的升级改造，使之符合当地的行业安全标准。引入了JSA工作安全分析工具，建立了切实可行的HSE管理体系，并强调了现场监督，从而实施了行之有效的HSE管理，为该项目的顺利运行提供了有力的安全保障。  相似文献   

Traces of volcanic ash from the Mediterranean,Iceland and North America in a Holocene record from south Wales,UK     

Gwydion Jones  Siwan M. Davies  Richard A. Staff  Neil J. Loader  Sarah J. Davies  Michael J. C. Walker 《第四纪科学杂志》2020,35(1-2):163-174

A tephra record is presented for a sediment core from Llyn Llech Owain, south Wales, spanning the early- to mid-Holocene. Seven cryptotephra deposits are discovered with three thought to correlate with known eruptions and the remaining four considered to represent previously undocumented events. One deposit is suggested to correlate with the ~6.9 cal ka bp Lairg A tephra from Iceland, whereas more distant sources are proposed as the origin for two of the tephra deposits. A peak of colourless shards in early-Holocene sediments is thought to tentatively correlate with the ~9.6 cal ka bp Fondi di Baia tephra (Campi Flegrei) and a second cryptotephra is tentatively correlated with the ~3.6 cal ka bp Aniakchak (CFE) II tephra (Alaska). The Fondi di Baia tephra has never been recorded beyond proximal sites and its discovery in south Wales significantly extends the geographical distribution of ash from this eruption. The remaining four cryptotephra deposits are yet to be correlated with known eruptions, demonstrating that our current understanding of widespread tephra deposits is incomplete. This new tephra record highlights the potential for sites at more southerly and westerly locations in northwest Europe to act as repositories for ash from several volcanic regions.  相似文献