Early Flood Warning for Linyi Watershed by the GRAPES/XXT Model Using TIGGE Data          下载免费PDF全文

XU Jingwen  ZHANG Wanchang  ZHENG Ziyan  JIAO Meiyan  CHEN Jing 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2012,26(1):103-111

Early and effective flood warning is essential for reducing loss of life and economic damage.Three global ensemble weather prediction systems of the China Meteorological Administration (CMA),the Europe...  相似文献   

Flood hydrograph estimation from arid catchment morphology     

M. Nouh 《水文研究》1990,4(2):103-120

Data on performance of a geomorphologic rainfall-runoff model in simulating observed flash flood hydrographs in 32 arid catchments have been analysed. The catchments, which are located in the southwest region of Saudi Arabia, vary in their size, slope of land, and characteristics of soils, and are in zones of different rainstorm characteristics. The sensitivity of the model accuracy with various catchment and rainfall characteristics has been investigated. Size, followed by rate of infiltration and slope of land, are the most effective catchment characteristics affecting the accuracy. In addition, the accuracy varies with spatial and temporal rainfall variation, total rainfall depth, and length of the dry period between two successive rainstorms over catchment. It is sensitive to temporal rainfall variation more than spatial rainfall variation, and to the dry period more than total rainfall depth. Generally, the model did not display an accuracy approaching that of the observations, especially in simulating peak flowrates in large size infiltrating catchments having high temporal rainstorm variation. Guidelines on the best use of the model in arid catchments were proposed.  相似文献   

基于GIS的乌江流域地表径流模拟研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

唐从国  刘丛强 《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》2007,32(5):410-414

基于GIS平台，建立了数字乌江流域。在此基础上，选择5个典型子流域，利用流域1956-2000年的降雨和水文资料及流域2000年土地利用数据，分别计算5个子流域的年均降雨量、年均地表径流量和土地利用百分比；用多元回归分析工具建立流域年均地表径流量与年均降雨量和土地利用百分比之间的关系式，得到不同土地利用方式下的降雨径流模型；通过实测资料对模型进行验证的结果表明，模型模拟精度较高，相对误差在7％以内。  相似文献   

概念性水文模型多目标参数自动优选方法研究   总被引：24，自引：7，他引：24  

张洪刚  郭生练  刘攀  彭定志 《水文》2002,22(1):12-16

以三水源新安江模型为例，研究探讨了概念性水文模型多目标参数自动优选方法。目标函数综合考虑了水量平衡、确定性系数、洪峰和枯水流量过程。通过对目标函数的不同组合方式，分别率定模型参数和分析比较结果。研究表明，多目标参数自动优选方法综合考虑了水文过程的各种要素，优于传统的单目标优选结果，具有较高的模拟预报精度。  相似文献   

降雨径流汇入背景下受纳水体可溶态Ni和As的动态变化     

刘浩峰  刘玉燕  张一玮  丁方方  张牛牛  王林 《热带地理》2022,42(12):2088-2097

选取降雨丰沛、降雨径流突出的热带海岛城市海口美舍河市区河段,使用室内分析与野外采样结合的方法开展降雨径流汇入后受纳水体可溶态Ni和As的动态变化研究。结果表明：降雨径流的汇入直接对受纳水体中Ni和As的固液分配产生干扰,且其对受纳水体Ni和As的输入贡献主要依赖悬浮态,可溶态Ni和As输入相对较弱。具体表现为：降雨径流汇入前受纳水体可溶态Ni和As占总质量浓度的比例分别达到55.67%和94.77%。降雨径流汇入后,受纳水体Ni和As发生一系列动态变化,排水口处可溶态Ni和As占比分别达总质量浓度的20.97%和76.92%,可溶态占比明显下降,变化较为剧烈;排水口下游可溶态Ni和As占比也均下降,分别为47.23%和88.38%。对不同降雨情境下的数据分析发现：当降雨量≤10 mm时,雨前干燥期长短是受纳水体可溶态Ni和As动态变化的主要影响因素;当降雨量在10~30 mm时,雨前干燥期长短、雨强峰值出现时间及其大小是受纳水体可溶态Ni和As对降雨径流响应时间及响应程度的主要影响因素;当降雨量≥30 mm时,雨强峰值出现时间是受纳水体可溶态Ni和As动态变化的主要影响因素。降雨径流对受纳水体可溶态Ni和As的影响存在差异,当干燥期短、且存在最大雨强值过高现象时,受纳水体可溶态As受降雨径流影响小,而可溶态Ni受降雨径流影响明显。  相似文献   

水利水保措施对潮河流域年径流量的影响 —— 基于经验统计模型的评估   总被引：14，自引：0，他引：14  

李子君  李秀彬 《地理学报》2008,63(9):958-968

利用时间序列对比法分析了1961-2005 年潮河流域降水、径流、用水量、水利工程、 水土保持措施变化。结果表明: (1) 自20 世纪60 年代以来, 潮河流域年平均面雨量略有减 少, 但流域年径流量却呈明显减少趋势, 1991-2000 年的流域年径流量平均值为1961-1970 年 的90.9%, 减少幅度较大; (2) 潮河流域径流量的变化主要与水利水保等人类活动有关。利用 降水-径流经验统计模型评估了流域水利水保措施对年径流量的影响程度: 1981-1990 年、 1991-2000 年、2001-2005 年、1981-2005 年, 受水利水保措施影响所产生的年均减水量分别 为1.15、0.28、1.10、0.79 亿m³, 水利水保措施减水效应分别为31.99%、7.13%、40.71%、 23.79%。水利水保措施对枯水时段的减水效应更为突出。  相似文献   

Estimation of sub-annual inter-catchment groundwater flow using short-term water balance method     

Tomohiro Egusa  Tomoki Oda  Takanori Sato  Tomo'omi Kumagai 《水文研究》2021,35(9):e14368

Predicting inter-catchment groundwater flow (IGF) is essential because IGF greatly affects stream water discharge and water chemistry. However, methods for estimating sub-annual IGF and clarifying its mechanisms using minimal data are limited. Thus, we quantified the sub-annual IGF and elucidated its driving factors using the short-term water balance method (STWB) for three forest headwater catchments in Japan (named here catchment A, B and As). Our previous study using the chloride mass balance indicated that annual IGF of catchment A (49.0 ha) can be negligible. Therefore, we calculated the daily evapotranspiration (ET) rate using the Priestley–Taylor expression and the 5-year water balance in catchment A (2010–2014). The sub-annual IGF of the three catchments was then calculated by subtracting the ET rate from the difference between rainfall and stream discharge during the sub-annual water balance periods selected using the STWB. The IGF rates of catchment B (7.0 ha), which is adjacent to catchment A, were positive in most cases, indicating that more groundwater flowed out of the catchment than into it, and exhibited positive linear relationships with rainfall and stream discharge. This suggested that as the catchments became wetter, more groundwater flowed out of catchment B. Conversely, the IGF rates of catchment As (5.3 ha), included in catchment A, were negative in most cases, indicating that more groundwater flowed into the catchment than out from it, and exhibited negative linear relationships with rainfall and stream discharge. Given the topography of the catchments studied, infiltration into the bedrock was the probable reason for the IGF outflow from catchment B. We hypothesized that in catchment As, the discrepancy between the actual hydrological boundary and the surface topographic boundary could have caused an IGF inflow. This study provides a useful tool for determining an IGF model structure to be incorporated into rainfall-runoff models.  相似文献   

半湿润半干旱流域空间组合模型研究     

刘玉环  李致家  刘志雨  黄鹏年 《湖泊科学》2020,32(3):826-839

在半湿润半干旱地区,下垫面条件复杂,产流机制混合多变,而现有的水文模型由于其固定的结构和模式,无法灵活地模拟不同下垫面特征的洪水过程.本文利用CN-地形指数法将流域划分为超渗主导子流域和蓄满主导子流域.将新安江模型(XAJ)、新安江-Green-Ampt模型(XAJG)和Green-Ampt模型(GA)相结合,在子流域分类的基础上构建空间组合模型(SCMs),并在半湿润的东湾流域和半干旱的志丹流域进行检验.结果表明:东湾流域的参数由水文模型来主导;而志丹流域的参数受主导径流影响很大.在东湾流域,偏蓄满的模型模拟结果优于偏超渗的模型,且SCM2模型(XAJ和XAJG的组合模型)的模拟效果最好(径流深合格率为75%,洪峰合格率75%);而SCM5模型(GA和XAJG的组合模型)在以超渗产流为主的志丹流域模拟最好(径流深合格率53.3%,洪峰合格率53.3%).在半干旱半湿润流域,SCMs模型结构灵活,在地形和土壤数据的驱动下,具有更合理的模型结构和参数,模拟精度较高,适应性较强.  相似文献   

Understanding spatio-temporal rainfall-runoff changes in a semi-arid region     

Santosh K. Aryal  Richard P. Silberstein  Guobin Fu  Geoff Hodgson  Stephen P. Charles  Don McFarlane 《水文研究》2020,34(11):2510-2530

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The impact of climate change on U. K. river flows: A preliminary comparison of two generations of probabilistic climate projections     

Alison Lindsey Kay  Glenn Watts  Steven C. Wells  Stuart Allen 《水文研究》2020,34(4):1081-1088

The impacts of climate change on future river flows are a growing concern. Typically, impacts are simulated by driving hydrological models with climate model ensemble data. The U.K. Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) provided probabilistic projections, enabling a risk-based approach to decision-making under climate change. Recently, an update was released—UKCP18—so there is a need for information on how impacts may differ. The probabilistic projections from UKCP18 and UKCP09 are here applied using the change factor method with catchment-based hydrological modelling for 10 catchments across England. Projections of changes in median, mean, high, and low flows are made for the 2050s, using the A1B emissions scenario from UKCP09 and UKCP18 as well as the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios from UCKP18. The results show that, in all catchments for all flow measures, the central estimate of change under UKCP18 is similar to that from UKCP09 (A1B emissions). However, the probabilistic uncertainty ranges from UKCP18 are, in all cases, greater than from UKCP09, despite UKCP18 having a smaller ensemble size than UKCP09. Although there are differences between the central estimates of change using UKCP18 RCP4.5, RCP8.5 and A1B emissions, there is considerable overlap in the uncertainty ranges. The results suggest that existing assessments of hydrological impacts remain relevant, though it will be necessary to evaluate sensitive decisions using the latest projections. The analysis will aid development of advice to users of current guidance based on UKCP09 and help make decisions about the prioritization of further hydrological impacts work using UKCP18, which should also apply other products from UKCP18 like the 12-km regional data.  相似文献