Effect of 2D spatial variability on slope reliability: A simplified FORM analysis     

《地学前缘(英文版)》2018,9(6):1631-1638

To meet the high demand for reliability based design of slopes, we present in this paper a simplified HLRF(Hasofere Linde Rackwitze Fiessler) iterative algorithm for first-order reliability method(FORM). It is simply formulated in x-space and requires neither transformation of correlated random variables nor optimization tools. The solution can be easily improved by iteratively adjusting the step length. The algorithm is particularly useful to practicing engineers for geotechnical reliability analysis where standalone(deterministic) numerical packages are used. Based on the proposed algorithm and through direct perturbation analysis of random variables, we conducted a case study of earth slope reliability with complete consideration of soil uncertainty and spatial variability.  相似文献   

Structural stability of gravity dams: a progressive assessment considering uncertainties in shear strength parameters     

Mathilde Cordier 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2018,12(2):109-122

Structural sliding stability of gravity dams is generally quantified using deterministic factor of safety, FS_det. Large FS_det (e.g. 3 in normal condition), are used in existing guidelines to guard against material and load uncertainties. Some guidelines allow an arbitrary reduction in FS_det (e.g. 2) when the knowledge in strength parameters increases from material test data. Yet, those reduced FS_det are not based on a rational consideration of uncertainties. Propagation of uncertainties could be done using probabilistic analyses, such as Monte-Carlo simulations (MC) which are complex and challenging for practical use. There is thus a need to develop simplified reliability based safety assessment procedures that could rationalise the adjustment of FS_det. This paper presents a progressive analysis methodology using four safety evaluation formats of increasing complexity: (i) deterministic, (ii) semi-probabilistic (partial coefficient), (iii) reliability based Adjustable Factor of Safety (AFS), and (iv) probabilistic. Comprehensive comparisons are made for the sliding safety evaluation of a 80 m gravity dam. Results are presented in terms of sliding factors of safety, allowable water levels, and demand/capacity ratios. It is shown that the AFS formulation, using direct integration, is simple and practical to use in complement to existing dam safety guidelines before undertaking MC simulations.  相似文献   

Landfill site selection based on reliability concepts using the DRASTIC method and AHP integrated with GIS – a case study of Bengaluru city,India     

L. G. Santhosh  G. L. Sivakumar Babu 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2018,12(3):234-252

The selection of landfill sites for municipal solid waste (MSW) disposal involves consideration of geological, hydrological and environmental parameters which exhibit large spatial variability. Therefore, it is necessary to define, to what extent the chosen sites are reliable such that the probability of environmental pollution and health risks to population is minimal. In the present study, groundwater vulnerability to contamination has been assessed using the standard DRASTIC method. The results showed that the study region has 9.45% of very less, 32.94% of less, 25.47% of moderate, 22.79% of high and 9.35% of very high vulnerable zones. The study also revealed that none of the landfills are located in safe zones. This suggests that it requires proper remedial measures to avoid environmental pollution. A landfill site selection process has been carried out using the Analytical Hierarchy Process integrated with Geographical Information System tools. The obtained results showed that only 3.59?km² (0.08%) of the total area is suitable for landfills. The reliability analysis of the site suitability revealed that landfills are located at unreliable locations where the probability of risk to environmental pollution is high. The presented approach assists decision-makers in selecting reliable locations for the safe disposal of MSW.  相似文献   

Effect of connecting rain barrels on the storage size reduction     

Yongwon Seo  Nam‐Jeong Choi  Daeryong Park 《水文研究》2012,26(23):3538-3551

In this article, the possibility of sharing rain barrels and the potential benefit of reducing storage size through physical and non‐physical connections of rain barrels in a community are investigated. Using the concepts of homogeneous/heterogeneous users in rainwater harvesting systems (RWHS), two simple cases of a community composed of four prospective users are examined. The first is performed with the users who have the same mean and variance in water demands (homogeneous users), and the second is with the users with different means and variances (heterogeneous users). To take account for the rainfall characteristics in different places, historical records from six cities in the USA are used for storage–reliability–yield analysis. The result indicates that required total storage can be reduced by connecting multiple rain barrels. In addition, a significant difference is found between homogeneous and heterogeneous user groups. Homogeneous users do not achieve a substantial benefit from connecting their rain barrels; these users may even be disadvantaged by sharing. In contrast, heterogeneous users receive benefit by reducing the total required storage. Most benefit is expected between users with maximum difference in mean water demands. The reduction in storage size was as considerable as 37% in this study. The quantity of storage reduction depends on locations and target reliabilities. Knowledge of the benefits and limitations of rain barrel connections can improve RWHS performance through ability to customize a network plan for individual users. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Study of Partial Coefficients for Design of Semicircular Breakwaters     

郄禄文  Byung  Ho  CHOI 《中国海洋工程》2010,24(1):29-40

In the present study,the reliability design of semicircular breakwater is based on the verification of the rules defined by standard specifications,where partial coefficients are introduced to ensure safety.The reliability of the semicircular breakwaters has been analyzed by using the Hasofer-Lind method to determine the reliability index of structure that has correlated loads,utilizing the long-term observed wave data at a given place.The relation curve between reliability index and safety factor in the traditional design method,as well as the relationships between reliability index and partial coefficients,have been obtained.This paper proposes values of partial coefficients for the design expression of semicircular breakwaters in the cases of anti-sliding and anti-overturning.  相似文献   

输水管网模糊地震可靠性的 Monte Carlo 法分析程序     

刘锡荟  王海燕  张锐 《地震研究》1989,(3)

本文详细介绍了笔者所建议的运用模糊图理论和方法进行城市输水管网的地震可靠性分析途径和计算程序。对于输水管网中每段管道的震害预测,建立了相应的专家系统。在此基础上,定义了管网系统的模糊可靠性,更好地反映了人们对于管道损坏状态估计的模糊性和对可靠性要求上的模糊性。以模糊矩阵来描述输水管网的状态是十分方便的。通过计算模糊矩阵的传递闭包,极易找出最短路、关键段等。由于地震作用和管道抗震能力都是随机的,因此整个管网系统的可靠性分析是藉助Monle Carlo法进行的。以Monle Carlo法对模糊图进行分析,从而得到管网的地震可靠性,这还是首次。用PASCAL和PROLOG编制了在微机上实用的计算机程序,特别是以智能语言PROLOG编制的程序,更有许多特色。由于采用了一些技巧,使在微机上可以分析相当大的系统,为城市抗震防灾工作提供了一个有力的工具。  相似文献   

The System Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Rock Slopes   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Luo Guoyu  Yan ChanghongDepartment of Earth Sciences  Nanjing University  Nanjing  Jiangsu Fei Zhenbi 《《地质学报》英文版》1994,68(4)

The principal of preferred plane analysis is a new research view and model of rock slope engineering geology. It advocates that the rock slope stability, boundary conditions and failure model are controlled by preferred planes. Therefore, the problem of slope stability evaluation can be converted into the search for preferred planes and determination of preferred separating bodies. The organic combination of the deterministic model and the indeterministic model can be realized by applying the systems engineering principle and the research model and method of reliability analysis in the quantitative evaluation and prediction of rock slope stability. Finally, the paper presents the case studies of slopes of the Yangtze Gorge Project and the Ma'anshan openpit mine.  相似文献   

Assessment of reliability in water distribution networks using entropy based measures   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

K. Awumah  I. Goulter  S. K. Bhatt 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1990,4(4):309-320

Entropy based expressions for measurement of reliability and redundancy have recently been reported. These measures approach assessment of the reliability of the distribution network from the intrinsic redundancy of the network layout. The paper extends earlier work on entropy functions by including a more explicit statement of the alternate paths available in the network and by recognizing that under certain circumstances, e.g., failure of some part of the network work, an outflow link from a node under normal working condition may become an inflow link to the same node. The measures are assessed by comparison with parameters measuring Nodal Pair Reliability and percentage of flow supplied at adequate pressure for a range of networks and link failure conditions in this networks. The entropy measures are shown to reflect changes in the network reliability, as measured by these two comparative parameters, very well.  相似文献   

Cost-effective network design for groundwater flow monitoring   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

R. Andricevic 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1990,4(1):27-41

The extensive use of groundwater resources has increased the need for developing cost-effective monitoring networks to provide an indication of the degree to which the subsurface environment has been affected by human activities. This study presents a cost-effective approach to the design of groundwater flow monitoring networks. The groundwater network design is formulated with two problem formats: maximizing the statistical monitoring power for specified budget constraint and minimizing monitoring cost for statistical power requirement. The statistical monitoring power constraint is introduced with an information reliability threshold value. A branch and bound technique is employed to select the optimal solution from a discrete set of possible network alternatives. The method is tested to the design of groundwater flow monitoring problem in the Pomona County, California.  相似文献   

Time-dependent behaviour of the rock mass   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

E. Z. Lajtai 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》1991,9(2):109-124

Summary The strength of intact rock and the rock mass is time-dependent. For intact rock experimental verification is available, for the rock mass the scale of time-dependence is a matter of judgement. Rock mass classifications do however emphasize the effect of time on tunnel stability. This paper examines the source of time-dependence in rocks and the rock mass and suggests a technique for estimating the long term strength. The long term strength of the rock mass is controlled by the time-dependent weakening of intact rock. Frictional resistance, a major source of rock mass strength, increases rather than decreases with time. Lifetime estimation for rocks can be accomplished phenomenologically or mechanistically. The first is a statistical process of wide applicability, the second is more restrictive in usage as its applies only to materials that suffer time-dependent strain (creep). Although the mechanistic route is more appealing, it has a major drawback as it concentrates on steady state creep. There is no strong evidence for steady state creep in rocks. The technique for long term prediction is developed through the analysis of the failure rate under constant load. The failure rate for a given load and environment is established from the frequency distribution of time-to-failure data as measured in static fatigue tests. As expected, the failure rate is strongly affected by both the loading and the environmental condition. The influence, however, is systematic and predictable.  相似文献