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51.
Toyoda Takahiro Fujii Yosuke Kuragano Tsurane Kosugi Naohiro Sasano Daisuke Kamachi Masafumi Ishikawa Yoichi Masuda Shuhei Sato Kanako Awaji Toshiyuki Hernandez Fabrice Ferry Nicolas Guinehut Stéphanie Martin Matthew Andrew Peterson K. Good Simon A. Valdivieso Maria Haines Keith Storto Andrea Masina Simona Köhl Armin Yin Yonghong Shi Li Alves Oscar Smith Gregory Chang You-Soon Vernieres Guillaume Wang Xiaochun Forget Gael Heimbach Patrick Wang Ou Fukumori Ichiro Lee Tong Zuo Hao Balmaseda Magdalena 《Climate Dynamics》2017,49(3):891-907
Climate Dynamics - The interannual-decadal variability of the wintertime mixed layer depths (MLDs) over the North Pacific is investigated from an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of an... 相似文献
52.
Masahiro Sugiyama Yosuke Arino Takanobu Kosugi Atsushi Kurosawa Shingo Watanabe 《Climate Policy》2018,18(6):681-689
Climate engineering has received increasing attention, but its discussion has remained on the sidelines of mainstream climate policy. The policy relevance of this previously exotic option is poised to rise because of the gap between the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement and slow global mitigation efforts. It is therefore crucial to understand the risks and benefits of the proposed schemes, and the social implications of policy choices. Assessment of the risks and benefits of solar geoengineering strongly depends on scenarios, but previous scenarios have not reflected the full range of social choices. In light of concerns over risks, a newer set of scenarios is desirable, which represents both uncertainties and social choices more fully. Borrowing and extending lessons from recent literature on the new community climate scenario process, we envision a possible scenario-building process that combines interdisciplinary scholarship with the involvement of stakeholders and citizens. The resultant scenarios would better characterize uncertainties of, and policy choices for, solar geoengineering, and foster critical appraisal of its risks and benefits. Such societal choices might include not only total ban and large-scale deployment, but also limited deployment, which has received less attention in the scenario literature. The interaction between scenario and governance research would be able to highlight the central issues at stake, including ethical, social, and political dimensions.
Key policy insights
A more comprehensive assessment of solar geoengineering is necessary to evaluate its risks and benefits, necessitating new scenario research
It is crucial to reflect the full span of policy choices and uncertainties with interdisciplinary collaboration in such scenarios
Such societal choices might include not only total ban and large-scale deployment, but also limited deployment, which has received less attention in the scenario literature
Participatory scenario research would enable incorporating the concerns and opinions of stakeholders and citizens in scenario creation
53.
Naoto Iwasaka Fumiaki Kobashi Yosuke Kinoshita Yuko Ohno 《Journal of Oceanography》2006,62(4):481-492
A seasonal evolution of surface mixed layer in the western North Pacific around 24°N between 143°E and 150°E was observed
by using an Argo float for more than 9 months, from December 2001 through August 2002. The result showed that the mixed layer
deepened gradually in the first two months. It reached its maximum depth of about 130 m at the end of January, after which
the mixed layer varied largely and sometimes the pycnocline below the mixed layer was much weakened until the summer mixed
layer formed in late April. The thin surface mixed layer was maintained during the rest of the observation period. Heat budget
analysis suggests that the vertical and horizontal temperature advections are the two most dominant terms in the heat balance
in the upper layer on time scales from a few days to a month. The vertical motions that are possibly responsible for the vertical
temperature advection are discussed. 相似文献
54.
Nikki Dijkstra Nadine B. Quintana Krupinski Masako Yamane Stephen P. Obrochta Yosuke Miyairi Yusuke Yokoyama Caroline P. Slomp 《Estuaries and Coasts》2018,41(1):139-157
Salinity variations in restricted basins like the Baltic Sea can alter their vulnerability to hypoxia (i.e., bottom water oxygen concentrations <2 mg/l) and can affect the burial of phosphorus (P), a key nutrient for marine organisms. We combine porewater and solid-phase geochemistry, micro-analysis of sieved sediments (including XRD and synchrotron-based XAS), and foraminiferal δ18O and δ13C analyses to reconstruct the bottom water salinity, redox conditions, and P burial in the Ångermanälven estuary, Bothnian Sea. Our sediment records were retrieved during the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Baltic Sea Paleoenvironment Expedition 347 in 2013. We demonstrate that bottom waters in the Ångermanälven estuary became anoxic upon the intrusion of seawater in the early Holocene, like in the central Bothnian Sea. The subsequent refreshening and reoxygenation, which was caused by gradual isostatic uplift, promoted P burial in the sediment in the form of Mn-rich vivianite. Vivianite authigenesis in the surface sediments of the more isolated part of the estuary ultimately ceased, likely due to continued refreshening and an associated decline in productivity and P supply to the sediment. The observed shifts in environmental conditions also created conditions for post-depositional formation of authigenic vivianite, and possibly apatite formation, at ～8 m composite depth. These salinity-related changes in redox conditions and P burial are highly relevant in light of current climate change. The results specifically highlight that increased freshwater input linked to global warming may enhance coastal P retention, thereby contributing to oligotrophication in both coastal and adjacent open waters. 相似文献
55.
Apip Kaoru Takara Yosuke Yamashiki Kyoji Sassa Agung Bagiawan Ibrahim Hiroshi Fukuoka 《Landslides》2010,7(3):237-258
This paper describes the potential applicability of a hydrological–geotechnical modeling system using satellite-based rainfall
estimates for a shallow landslide prediction system. The physically based distributed model has been developed by integrating
a grid-based distributed kinematic wave rainfall-runoff model with an infinite slope stability approach. The model was forced
by the satellite-based near real-time half-hourly CMORPH global rainfall product prepared by NOAA-CPC. The method combines
the following two model outputs necessary for identifying where and when shallow landslides may potentially occur in the catchment:
(1) the time-invariant spatial distribution of areas susceptible to slope instability map, for which the river catchment is
divided into stability classes according to the critical relative soil saturation; this output is designed to portray the
effect of quasi-static land surface variables and soil strength properties on slope instability and (2) a produced map linked
with spatiotemporally varying hydrologic properties to provide a time-varying estimate of susceptibility to slope movement
in response to rainfall. The proposed hydrological model predicts the dynamic of soil saturation in each grid element. The
stored water in each grid element is then used for updating the relative soil saturation and analyzing the slope stability.
A grid of slope is defined to be unstable when the relative soil saturation becomes higher than the critical level and is
the basis for issuing a shallow landslide warning. The method was applied to past landslides in the upper Citarum River catchment
(2,310 km2), Indonesia; the resulting time-invariant landslide susceptibility map shows good agreement with the spatial patterns of
documented historical landslides (1985–2008). Application of the model to two recent shallow landslides shows that the model
can successfully predict the effect of rainfall movement and intensity on the spatiotemporal dynamic of hydrological variables
that trigger shallow landslides. Several hours before the landslides, the model predicted unstable conditions in some grids
over and near the grids at which the actual shallow landslides occurred. Overall, the results demonstrate the potential applicability
of the modeling system for shallow landslide disaster predictions and warnings. 相似文献
56.
The spatial relationship between topography and rock uplift patterns in asymmetric mountain ranges was investigated using a stream erosion model in which the asymmetric rock uplift was given and erosion rates were proportional to the m-th power of the drainage area and the n-th power of the channel gradient. The model conditions were simple, and thus the effects of horizontal rock movement, diffusional processes, and erosion thresholds were neglected, and spatially uniform precipitation, lithology, and vegetation were assumed. In asymmetric mountain ranges, under realistic exponent conditions (m < n) and the above assumptions, the surface erosion rate is faster on the steeper side and slower on the gentler side. The topographic axis migrates away from the rock uplift axis toward the center of the mountain range owing to the contrast in erosion rates. This migration continues until the erosion is balanced with rock uplift. In a dynamic steady state, the topographic pattern is independent of the rock uplift rate as indicated by an analytical solution, and is prescribed by the rock uplift pattern and the exponents m and n. As the asymmetry of the rock uplift pattern increases, the topographic axis migrates a greater distance. The location of the topographic axis is related to the location of the rock uplift axis by a simple logarithmic function, for a wide range of m and n. The fit of the numerical results and the logarithmic function is particularly good when m = 0.5 and n = 1.0. If the rock uplift pattern in asymmetric mountain ranges is known, the value of n − 5m/4 can be constrained based on the logarithmic relation, assuming a dynamic steady state. On the other hand, if the value of n − 5m/4 is known in an asymmetric mountain range, the rock uplift pattern can be estimated directly from the topography. This relation was applied to the Suzuka Range in central Japan, and the value of n − 5m/4 was estimated for an assumed reverse fault motion. 相似文献
57.
Tong Lee Toshiyuki Awaji Magdalena Balmaseda Nicolas Ferry Yosuke Fujii Ichiro Fukumori Benjamin Giese Patrick Heimbach Armin Köhl Simona Masina Elisabeth Remy Anthony Rosati Michael Schodlok Detlef Stammer Anthony Weaver 《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》2010
Monthly averaged total volume transport of the Indonesian throughflow (ITF) estimated by 14 global ocean data assimilation (ODA) products that are decade to multi-decade long are compared among themselves and with observations from the INSTANT Program (2004–2006). The main goals of the comparisons are to examine the consistency and evaluate the skill of different ODA products in simulating ITF transport. The ensemble averaged, time-mean value of ODA estimates is 13.6 Sv (1 Sv = 106 m3/s) for the common 1993–2001 period and 13.9 Sv for the 2004–2006 INSTANT Program period. These values are close to the 15-Sv estimate derived from INSTANT observations. All but one ODA time-mean estimate fall within the range of uncertainty of the INSTANT estimate. In terms of temporal variability, the scatter among different ODA estimates averaged over time is 1.7 Sv, which is substantially smaller than the magnitude of the temporal variability simulated by the ODA systems. Therefore, the overall “signal-to-noise” ratio for the ensemble estimates is larger than one. The best consistency among the products occurs on seasonal-to-interannual time scales, with generally stronger (weaker) ITF during boreal summer (winter) and during La Nina (El Nino) events. The scatter among different products for seasonal-to-interannual time scales is approximately 1 Sv. Despite the good consistency, systematic difference is found between most ODA products and the INSTANT observations. All but the highest-resolution (18 km) ODA product show a dominant annual cycle while the INSTANT estimate and the 18-km product exhibit a strong semi-annual signal. The coarse resolution is an important factor that limits the level of agreement between ODA and INSTANT estimates. Decadal signals with periods of 10–15 years are seen. The most conspicuous and consistent decadal change is a relatively sharp increase in ITF transport during 1993–2000 associated with the strengthening tropical Pacific trade wind. Most products do not show a weakening ITF after the mid-1970s’ associated with the weakened Pacific trade wind. The scatter of ODA estimates is smaller after than before 1980, reflecting the impact of the enhanced observations after the 1980s. To assess the representativeness of using the average over a three-year period (e.g., the span of the INSTANT Program) to describe longer-term mean, we investigate the temporal variations of the three-year low-pass ODA estimates. The average variation is about 3.6 Sv, which is largely due to the increase of ITF transport from 1993 to 2000. However, the three-year average during the 2004–2006 INSTANT Program period is within 0.5 Sv of the long-term mean for the past few decades. 相似文献
58.
The solid planets assembled 4.57 Gyr ago during a period of less than 100 Myr, but the bulk of the impact craters we see on the inner planets formed much later, in a narrow time interval between 3.8 and 3.9 Gyr ago, during the so-called late heavy bombardment (LHB). It is not certain what caused the LHB, and it has not been well known whether the impactors were comets or asteroids, but our present study lend support to the idea that it was comets. Due to the Earth’s higher gravity, the impactors will have hit the Earth with ∼twice the energy density that they hit the Moon, and the bombardment will have continued on Earth longer than on the Moon. All solid surface of the Earth will have been completely covered with craters by the end of the LHB.However, almost nothing of the Earth’s crust from even the end of this epoch, is preserved today. One of the very few remnants, though, is exposed as the Isua greenstone belt (IGB) and nearby areas in Western Greenland. During a field expedition to Isua, we sampled three types of metasedimentary rocks, deposited ∼3.8 billion years ago, that contain information about the sedimentary river load from larger areas of surrounding land surfaces (mica-schist and turbidites) and of the contemporaneous seawater (BIF). Our samples show evidence of the LHB impacts that took place on Earth, by an average of a seven times enrichment (150 ppt) in iridium compared to present-day ocean crust (20 ppt). The clastic sediments show slightly higher enrichment than the chemical sediments, which may be due to contamination from admixtures of mafic (proto-crustal) sources.We show that this enrichment is in agreement with the lunar cratering rate and a corresponding extraterrestrial LHB contribution to the Earth’s Hadean-Eoarchean crust, provided the bulk of the influx was cometary (i.e., of high velocity and low in CI abundance), but not if the impactors were meteorites (i.e. had velocities and abundances similar to present-day Earth-crossing asteroids). Our study is a first direct indication of the nature of the LHB impactors, and the first to find an agreement between the LHB lunar cratering rate and the Earth’s early geochemical record (and the corresponding lunar record). The LHB comets that delivered the iridium we see at Isua will at the same time have delivered the equivalent of a ∼1 km deep ocean, and we explain why one should expect a cometary ocean to become roughly the size of the Earth’s present-day ocean, not only in terms of depth but also in terms of the surface area it covers. The total impacting mass on the Earth during the LHB will have been ∼1000 tons/m2. 相似文献
59.
A numerical experiment using a three dimensional level model was performed to clarify the mechanism generating a strong coastal
current, Kyucho, induced by the passage of Typhoon 0406 around the tip of the Tango Peninsula, Japan in June 2004. Wind stress accompanied
by Typhoon 0406 was applied to the model ocean with realistic bottom topography and stratification condition. The model well
reproduced the characteristics of Kyucho observed by Kumaki et al. (2005), i.e., the strong alongshore current with maximum velocity of 53 cm s−1 and its propagation along the peninsula with propagation speed of about 0.6 m s−1 one half-day after the typhoon’s passage. Coastal-trapped waves (CTW) accompanied by downwelling were induced along the northwest
coast of the peninsula by the alongshore wind stress. The energy density flux due to the CTW flowed eastward along the coast,
and indicated scattering of the CTW around the eastern coast of the peninsula. In addition, significant near-inertial internal
gravity waves were also caused in the offshore region from the west of the Noto Peninsula to the north of the Tango Peninsula
by the typhoon’s passage. The energy flux density of the near-inertial fluctuations flowed southward off the Fukui coast,
and part of the energy flux was trapped on the tip of the Tango Peninsula, flowing with the coast on its right. It was found
that the strong current, Kyucho, at the northeastern tip of the Tango Peninsula was generated by superposition of the near-inertial internal gravity waves
and subinertial CTW. 相似文献
60.
Multiple-rind structure is common among shallow-water pillows with diameters larger than about 1 m in Oamaru, New Zealand, on the Columbia Plateau (USA), and elsewhere. A rind consists of sideromelane, tachylyte, and tachylytic basalt. A multiple rind is a concentric set of repeated rinds in various forms, e. g., a portion of a broken rind thrust under another part, a series of short and detached subparallel rinds, or a pouch-shaped depression. Transitions and combinations of these three forms are common. Multiple-rind structure develops at any part of the pillow perimeter, but does not cover the pillow completely. It is always accompanied by a rupture in the outermost rind. Up to 13 rinds have been observed, but two to four rinds are most common. The multiple-rind structure is formed by implosion resulting from condensation of exsolved H2O. When H2O condenses, a pressure difference between the interior and exterior of a pillow is created. Above a certain threshold pressure difference, the outer skin of a pillow is torn at weak points, such as radial joints, and thrusts under the neighboring skin, buckles to form a pouch-shaped depression, or produces some variation of these. One set of multiple rinds is thus formed. Further exsolution and condensation of H2O in solidifying pillows may cause development of additional rinds. H2O exsolution and condensation and subsequent implosion are limited to low-pressure environments so that multiple-rind structure is characteristic of shallow-water pillow lava. 相似文献