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1.
利用2007—2009年热带降雨测量卫星(TRMM)微波成像仪(TMI)观测的亮温资料,建立一种西北太平洋热带气旋强度(Tropical Cyclone,TC)的估计模型,对2010年热带气旋进行独立估计试验,并对估计误差进行分析。结果表明:该模型对强度小于强台风TC的拟合效果较好,均方根误差约为5 m/s,平均绝对误差约为4 m/s;对强台风和超强台风TC的拟合误差较大,均方根误差分别为9.65和6.60 m/s,平均绝对误差分别为7.76和5.49 m/s;对强台风及以上强度的TC,模型的拟合误差在日(夜)间减小(增大),误差最小(大)值为6.00 m/s(11.96 m/s),说明估计值在日(夜)间偏大(小)。 相似文献
2.
正热带气旋位居全球十大自然灾害之首,至今造成全球保险损失金额最高的十大自然灾害事件中有八起与热带气旋有关。西北太平洋(含南海)是全球热带气旋最活跃的海区,中国是全世界受热带气旋影响最严重的国家之一,每年约有7～9个热带气旋登陆在我国人口稠密、经济发达的东南沿海,造成的经济损失随着经济社会发展和人口规模的增长呈日趋加重的态势。我国各级政府及中国气象局始终高度重视防台减灾工作,自1970年代起便建立了全国台风监测预警联 相似文献
3.
红外卫星云图和相关向量机的有眼热带气旋客观定强模型 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
热带气旋TC(Tropical Cyclone)是全球影响最严重的自然灾害之一。TC强度和路径的准确预报,对于减轻其带来的灾害影响至关重要。本文基于静止红外卫星云图和相关向量机RVM(Relevance Vector Machine)构建有眼TC客观定强模型。首先,利用高斯平滑对红外卫星云图进行去噪;然后,利用基于测地活动轮廓GAC(Geodesic Active Contour)模型的偏微分方程PDE(Partial Differential Equation)法对有眼TC的眼壁进行分割,提取眼壁的亮温梯度信息,计算眼壁亮温梯度的最大值及梯度数据不同概率时的均值,从而构造与TC强度密切相关的特征因子;最后,利用RVM构建单特征因子、多特征因子与近地面最大中心风速的客观定强模型,研究不同特征维度对TC客观定强误差的影响。实验结果表明,在单特征因子的模型定强中,95%概率眼壁亮温梯度均值的定强误差最小,相比利用单特征因子所构建的定强模型,多特征因子的模型定强误差更小,即多特征因子中包含更多与TC强度相关的特征信息。在多特征因子的模型定强中,二特征因子优于三特征因子模型,说明应当合理选择特征因子维数,并非越多越好。本文所用RVM模型具有良好的高维非线性处理能力,能对TC强度进行有效估计。 相似文献
4.
In this paper, 1416 conventional ground-based meteorological
observation stations on the mainland of China were subdivided into
groups of differing spatial density. Data from each subgroup were then
used to analyze variations in the tropical cyclone (TC) precipitation
statistics derived from each subgroup across the mainland of China
(excluding Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macao), as well as in two regions
(east China and south China) and three provinces (Guangdong, Hainan,
and Jiangxi) between 1981 and 2010. The results showed that for the
mainland of China, total precipitation, mean annual precipitation, mean
daily precipitation, and its spatial distribution were the same
regardless of the spatial density of the stations. However, some minor
differences were evident with respect to precipitation extremes and
their spatial distribution. Overall, there were no significant
variations in the TC precipitation statistics calculated from different
station density schemes for the mainland of China. The regional and
provincial results showed no significant differences in mean daily
precipitation, but this was not the case for the maximum daily
precipitation and torrential rain frequency. The maximum daily
precipitation calculated from the lower-density station data was
slightly less than that based on the higher-density station schemes,
and this effect should be taken into consideration when interpreting
regional climate statistics. The impact of station density on TC
precipitation characteristics was more obvious for Hainan than for
Guangdong or Jiangxi provinces. In addition, the effects were greater
for south China (including Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region, Guangdong,
and Hainan provinces) than east China (including Shandong, Jiangsu,
Zhejiang, Shanghai, Fujian, Anhui, and Jiangxi provinces). Furthermore,
the analysis proved that the statistical climatic characteristics began
to change significantly when the station spacing was between 40 and 50
km, which are close to the mean spacing for all stations across the
mainland of China. Moreover, TC areal precipitation parameters,
including mean total areal precipitation and mean daily areal
precipitation, also began to change significantly when the spacing was
between 40 and 50 km, and were completely different when it was between
100 and 200 km. 相似文献
5.
6.
A rainfall that occurred during 0200–1400 Beijing Standard Time(BST)25 August 2008 shows the rapid development of a convective system,a short life span,and a record rate of 117.5 mm h-1for Xujiahui station since 1872.To study this torrential rainfall process,the partitioning method of Q vector is developed,in which a moist Q vector is first separated into a dry ageostrophic Q vector(DQ)and a diabatic-heating component.The dry ageostrophic Q vector is further partitioned along isothermal lines in the natural... 相似文献
7.
利用2007—2009年热带降雨测量卫星（TRMM）的微波成像仪（TMI）观测到的亮温资料,计算9个通道（10、19、37、85 GHz的水平和垂直极化通道及21 GHz的垂直极化通道）的亮温和极化修正温度（PCT）在不同范围内的最大值、最小值、平均值和区域阈值与热带气旋强度之间的关系。结果表明：亮温信息可较好地反映热带气旋的强度,单个参数与热带气旋最大风速的相关性最好可达到0.83,线性拟合的均方根误差接近业务误差;低频通道的亮温相对于高频通道可更好地估计海上热带气旋强度;位于台风中心0.5°～1.5°度范围之间的亮温与气旋强度的相关性较好,圆形区域的相关性好于圆环区域;对于位于海上的热带气旋,区域亮温的最小值与热带气旋强度的关系最好;低频通道（除10 GHz外）,阈值位于260～280 K区间的亮温与热带气旋强度的相关性较好。 相似文献
8.
多通道地基微波辐射计在0713号"韦帕"台风登陆前后探测性能及特征分析 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
利用上海市气象局2007年9月进行的"韦帕"台风探测试验资料和地面常规观测资料,对多通道地基微波辐射计在0713号"韦帕"台风登陆前后探测性能及特征进行了分析。结果表明:多通道地基微波辐射计探测的温度和相对湿度趋势与GPS探空得到的基本一致,尽管二者之间存在一些小的差异,但也表明了微波辐射计对台风具有一定的探测能力。0713号"韦帕"台风登陆前后温度和水汽密度场上,甚短生命史的冷暖气柱和高水汽密度柱十分活跃,体现了"韦帕"台风登陆前后的阵性特征。 相似文献
9.
在位涡框架下,利用位涡反演方法,对2003年夏季梅雨期间沿梅雨锋东移的一次弱江淮气旋的形成和维持过程进行了分析,并与强气旋的结果进行了对比。结果表明:对流层中高层的扰动在低层气旋中心位势高度降低或地面低压减压中起主要作用,而中低层的扰动起反作用,低层热力异常呈现一个弱的周期性作用。但在强江淮气旋的形成和发展过程中,中高层强迫对低层气旋发展期间的加深或地面低压的减压几乎没有贡献,中低层的非绝热加热是低层气旋加深或地面低压下降的主要贡献者。 相似文献
10.