A brief review of ENSO theories and prediction     

Xianghui FANG  Ruihuang XIE 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2020,63(4):476-491

Although the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) originates and develops in the equatorial Pacific, it has substantial climatic impacts around the globe. Thus, the ability to effectively simulate and predict ENSO one or more seasons in advance is of great societal importance, but this remains a challenging task. The main obstacles are the diversity, complexity,irregularity, and asymmetry of ENSO. The purpose of this article is to organically integrate the understanding of ENSO based on current progress on the physical mechanisms, prediction, and connections between the interannual ENSO phenomenon and physical processes on other time and space scales, and to provide guidance for future studies by extracting specific important questions.  相似文献   

Relative energy zero ratio-based approach for identifying pulse-like ground motions     

Liu  Ping  Li  Ning  Ma  Hua  Xie  Lili  Zhou  Baofeng 《地震工程与工程振动(英文版)》2020,19(1):1-16

Pulse-like ground motions are capable of inflicting significant damage to structures. Efficient classification of pulse-like ground motion is of great importance when performing the seismic assessment in near-fault regions. In this study, a new method for identifying the velocity pulses is proposed, based on different trends of two parameters: the short-time energy and the short-time zero crossing rate of a ground motion record. A new pulse indicator, the relative energy zero ratio(REZR), is defined to qualitatively identify pulse-like features. The threshold for pulse-like ground motions is derived and compared with two other identification methods through statistical analysis. The proposed procedure not only shows good accuracy and efficiency when identifying pulse-like ground motions but also exhibits good performance for classifying records with high-frequency noise and discontinuous pulses. The REZR method does not require a waveform formula to express and fit the potential velocity pulses; it is a purely signal-based classification method. Finally, the proposed procedure is used to evaluate the contribution of pulse-like motions to the total input energy of a seismic record, which dramatically increases the seismic damage potential.  相似文献   

Dynamic mechanisms controlling the topography of Longmenshan area   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Xie  Yuan  Li  Yongdong  Xiong  Xiong 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2020,63(1):121-131

The Longmenshan fault, which defines the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau, is one of the steepest margins of the plateau with a sharp elevation drop of about 4 km over a distance less than 100 km across the Longmenshan fault. The mechanism which is responsible for controlling and maintaining the elevation difference is highly debated. Using multiple observations including seismic velocity model, Moho depth, effective elastic thickness of the lithosphere, we conducted a quantitative study for elucidating the contributions from crust and lithospheric mantle by an integrated analysis of lithospheric isostasy and flexure. It is shown that the topography of the Longmenshan fault is supported by both lithospheric isostasy and flexure statically, and lower crustal channel flow and mantle convection dynamically. Different mechanisms have different weights for contribution to the topography of the Songpan-Ganzi block and the Sichuan Basin. The static and dynamic support contribute roughly the same to the topographic difference of ~4 km between the two sides of the Longmenshan fault. The static topographic difference of ~2 km is mainly resulted from the lithospheric isostasy, while the dynamic one of ~2 km is contributed by the uprising of the accumulated material in the lower crust beneath the Songpan-Ganzi block and the downward drag force caused by the upper mantle convection under the Sichuan Basin. It is thus suggested that the lower crustal flow and upper mantle convection are dynamic forces which should be taken into account in the studies on the dynamics in the Longmenshan and surrounding regions.  相似文献   

青岛近海物理-生物地球化学过程及其生态响应     

韦钦胜  王保栋  姚庆祯  于志刚  傅明珠  孙俊川  许博超  谢琳萍  辛明 《海洋学报(英文版)》2019,38(2):11-23

近些年来，夏季黄海浒苔大规模暴发，并在青岛近岸海域大面积聚集，引起了广泛的关注。本文基于在夏季和冬季所获得的多学科调查资料，重点研究了青岛近海的水文-生物地球化学过程及其生态影响，阐明了该海域物理-化学-生物等多参数之间的耦合响应。研究显示，夏季黄海冷水团的边界可扩展至青岛近岸海域，并在局部涌升至上层水体，形成沿岸上升流；该上升流可对上层营养盐产生一定的补充，进而促进浮游植物的繁殖，并于底层海域对应形成溶解氧（DO）和pH的低值。夏季青岛近海的上升流可能还有利于随南风漂移至此的浒苔的生长，并在一定程度上引起浒苔的局地旺发；同时，夏季该海域特定的锋面系统对浒苔聚集的影响也不容忽视。冬季黄海暖流在苏北浅滩外侧向山东半岛南部海域延伸，扩展至青岛近海的暖水舌与近岸低温水之间的锋面特征明显，而且在向岸暖水与近岸冷水间还对应形成了明显的营养盐和叶绿素（Chl-a）锋面。该项研究从多学科交叉的视角，增进了对青岛近海物理、化学和生物过程之间耦合关系的认识。  相似文献   

印尼贯穿流源区马鲁古海与哈马黑拉海水团来源的季节和年际变化   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

王露  周磊  谢玲玲  郑全安  李强  李明明 《海洋学报(英文版)》2019,38(4):58-71

So far, large uncertainties of the Indonesian throughflow(ITF) reside in the eastern Indonesian seas, such as the Maluku Sea and the Halmahera Sea. In this study, the water sources of the Maluku Sea and the Halmahera Sea are diagnosed at seasonal and interannual timescales and at different vertical layers, using the state-of-the-art simulations of the Ocean General Circulation Model(OGCM) for Earth Simulator(OFES). Asian monsoon leaves clear seasonal footprints on the eastern Indonesian seas. Consequently, the subsurface waters(around 24.5σ_θ and at ～150 m) in both the Maluku Sea and the Halmahera Sea stem from the South Pacific(SP) during winter monsoon, but during summer monsoon the Maluku Sea is from the North Pacific(NP), and the Halmahera Sea is a mixture of waters originating from the NP and the SP. The monsoon impact decreases with depth, so that in the Maluku Sea, the intermediate water(around 26.8σ_θ and at ～480 m) is always from the northern Banda Sea and the Halmahera Sea water is mainly from the SP in winter and the Banda Sea in summer. The deep waters(around27.2σ_θ and at ～1 040 m) in both seas are from the SP, with weak seasonal variability. At the interannual timescale,the subsurface water in the Maluku Sea originates from the NP/SP during El Ni?o/La Ni?a, while the subsurface water in the Halmahera Sea always originates from the SP. Similar to the seasonal variability, the intermediate water in Maluku Sea mainly comes from the Banda Sea and the Halmahera Sea always originates from the SP. The deep waters in both seas are from the SP. Our findings are helpful for drawing a comprehensive picture of the water properties in the Indonesian seas and will contribute to a better understanding of the ocean-atmosphere interaction over the maritime continent.  相似文献   

Spatiotemporal changes of epidemics and their relationship with human living environments in China over the past 2200 years     

Gong  Shengsheng  Xie  Haichao  Chen  Fahu 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2020,63(8):1223-1226

正Epidemics are biological disasters resulting from the widespread occurrence of acute and severe infectious diseases that are normally caused by viruses, bacteria and parasites.They are amongst the most destructive of all natural disasters suffered by humans (Gong, 2019). The pathogens that cause epidemics have always existed in nature, understanding the spatiotemporal distribution of past epidemics is important for preventing and controlling future epidemics.  相似文献   

Discovery of Four New Clusters in the Cygnus Cloud     

秦松梅  李静  陈力  钟靖 《天文和天体物理学研究(英文版)》2021,(2)

We report the discovery of four new open clusters(named QC 1,QC 2,QC 3 and QC 4)in the direction of Cygnus Cloud and select their members based on five astrometric parameters(l,b,ω,μα*,μδ)of Gaia DR2.We also derive their astrophysical parameters for each new cluster.Structure parameters are generated by fitting the radial density distribution with a King’s profile.Using solar metallicity,we performed isochrone-fitting on their purified color-magnitude diagrams(CMDs)to derive the age of the clusters.The known cluster NGC 7062 in an adjacent area is chosen to verify our identification process.The estimated distance,reddening and age of NGC 7062 are in good agreement with the literature.  相似文献   

Classification of yearly extreme precipitation events and associated flood risk in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley     

Zhiqing Xie  Yin Du  Yan Zeng  Qian Miao 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2018,61(9):1341-1356

Fifty cases of regional yearly extreme precipitation events(RYEPEs)were identified over the Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley(YHRV)during 1979–2016 applying the statistical percentile method.There were five types of RYEPEs,namely Yangtze Meiyu(YM-RYEPE),Huaihe Meiyu(HM-RYEPE),southwest-northeast-oriented Meiyu(SWNE-RYEPE)and typhoon I and II(TC-RYEPE)types of RYEPEs.Potential vorticity diagnosis showed that propagation trajectories of the RYEPEs along the Western Pacific Subtropical High and its steering flow were concentrated over the southern YHRV.As a result,the strongest and most frequently RYEPEs events,about 16–21 cases with average rainfall above 100 mm,occurred in the southern YHRV,particularly in the Nanjing metropolitan area.There have been 14 cases of flood-inducing RYEPEs since 1979,with the submerged area exceeding 120 km~2as simulated by the Flood Area hydraulic model,comprising six HM-RYEPEs,five YM-RYEPEs,two TC-RYEPEs,and one SWNE-RYEPE.The combination of evolving RYEPEs and rapid expansion of urban agglomeration is most likely to change the flood risk distribution over the Nanjing metropolitan area in the future.In the RCP6.0(RCP8.5)scenario,the built-up area increases at a rate of about 10.41 km~2(10 yr)~(-1)(24.67 km~2(10 yr)~(-1))from 2010 to 2100,and the area of high flood risk correspondingly increases from 3.86 km~2(3.86 km~2)to 9.00 km~2(13.51 km~2).Areas of high flood risk are mainly located at Chishan Lake in Jurong,Lukou International Airport in Nanjing,Dongshan in Jiangning District,Lishui District and other low-lying areas.The accurate simulation of flood scenarios can help reduce losses due to torrential flooding and improve early warnings,evacuation planning and risk analysis.More attention should be paid to the projected high flood risk because of the concentrated population,industrial zones and social wealth throughout the Nanjing metropolitan area.  相似文献   

Hydrologic implications of the isotopic kinetic fractionation of open-water evaporation     

Wei Xiao  Yufei Qian  Xuhui Lee  Wei Wang  Mi Zhang  Xuefa Wen  Shoudong Liu  Yongbo Hu  Chengyu Xie  Zhen Zhang  Xuesong Zhang  Xiaoyan Zhao  Fucun Zhang 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2018,61(10):1523-1532

The kinetic fractionation of open-water evaporation against the stable water isotope H_2 ~(18)O is an important mechanism underlying many hydrologic studies that use ~(18)O as an isotopic tracer. A recent in-situ measurement of the isotopic water vapor flux over a lake indicates that the kinetic effect is much weaker(kinetic factor 6.2‰) than assumed previously(kinetic factor14.2‰) by lake isotopic budget studies. This study investigates the implications of the weak kinetic effect for studies of deuterium excess-humidity relationships, regional moisture recycling, and global evapotranspiration partitioning. The results indicate that the low kinetic factor is consistent with the deuterium excess-humidity relationships observed over open oceans.The moisture recycling rate in the Great Lakes region derived from the isotopic tracer method with the low kinetic factor is a much better agreement with those from atmospheric modeling studies than if the default kinetic factor of 14.2‰ is used. The ratio of transpiration to evapotranspiration at global scale decreases from 84±9%(with the default kinetic factor) to 76±19%(with the low kinetic factor), the latter of which is in slightly better agreement with other non-isotopic partitioning results.  相似文献   

Coordinative similitude law considering fluid‐structure interaction for underwater shaking table tests     

Zhong‐Xian Li  Kun Wu  Yundong Shi  Ning Li  Yang Ding 《地震工程与结构动力学》2018,47(11):2315-2332

Generally, when a model is made of the same material as the prototype in shaking table tests, the equivalent material density of the scaled model is greater than that of the prototype because mass is added to the model to satisfy similitude criteria. When the water environment is modeled in underwater shaking table tests, however, it is difficult to change the density of water. The differences in the density similitude ratios of specimen materials and water can affect the similitude ratios of the hydrodynamic and wave forces with those of other forces. To solve this problem, a coordinative similitude law is proposed for underwater shaking table tests by adjusting the width of the upstream face of the model or the wave height in the model test to match the similitude ratios of hydrodynamic and wave forces with those of other forces. The designs of the similitude relations were investigated for earthquake excitation, wave excitation, and combined earthquake and wave excitation conditions. Series of numerical simulations and underwater shaking table tests were performed to validate the proposed coordinative similitude law through a comparison of coordinative model and conventional model designed based on the coordinative similitude law and traditional artificial mass simulation, respectively. The results show that the relative error was less than 10% for the coordinative model, whereas it reached 80% for the conventional model. The coordinative similitude law can better reproduce the dynamic responses of the prototype, and thus, this similitude law can be used in underwater shaking table tests.  相似文献