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1.
利用趋势分析法、Mann-kendall非参数趋势检验法和小波分析法对玛曲县气象站近40 a的积温、日照时数进行统计分析,结果表明:积温年际变化呈增加趋势,≥0℃积温倾向率为59.5℃/10a,极值出现在16 a振荡周期的跃变点处;≥10℃积温倾向率为33.7℃/10 a,极小值出现在10 a振荡周期的跃变点处;积温初日日期有提前的趋势,积温终日日期有推迟的趋势;≥10℃积温强振荡中心对应的周期比≥0℃多2 a,次强振荡中心对应的周期少5~6 a,低频和高频振荡同时趋向增大;日照时数年际变化呈增加趋势,倾向率为40.2 h/10 a,极小值发生在16 a振荡周期跃变点左右。Spearman秩相关分析,光、热、水的正匹配特征明显,其中牧草生长季5~9月水热同步变化,6~7月光水同步变化。牧草生长状况应当从光、热、水三者的匹配关系考虑,降水正常、气温偏高、日照丰富是最有利于牧草生长的草原气候生态环境。 相似文献
2.
基于若尔盖地区天然牧草1983～2013年生育期观测资料和近50年地面气象观测资料,通过趋势分析、相关分析、M-K突变检验和积分回归等数学方法分析了研究区气候变化特征及其对天然牧草高原早熟禾生育期的影响,以揭示若尔盖湿地天然牧草生育期对气候变化的响应规律。结果表明:(1)研究区年降水量有微弱下降趋势,牧草生长关键期5～9月有效降水日数下降趋势最为显著;年均气温、最高气温、最低气温升高趋势显著;牧草生长季4～9月逐月积温有显著增加的趋势;草地干燥指数以0.0256/10a的速率上升,1990s中期后暖干化加剧。(2)2000s牧草返青期、分蘖期、抽穗期较1980s提前,开花期较1990s延后了4天、黄枯期较1980s提前了12天,较1990s延迟了9天、生长期较1980s减少了20天,较1990s增加了8天。(3)3月≥0℃积温、4月和6月≥3℃积温的显著增加,导致了牧草返青期、分蘖期、抽穗期提前;除返青期外有效降水日数越多,生育期越提前,反之亦然;(4)牧草生长期对平均温度、气温日较差、有效降水日数等气象因子敏感;在牧草生长关键期7月不出现干旱或干旱程度较轻的情况下,气候变暖将导致生长期延长。 相似文献
3.
使用卫辉市48 a的气温、降水观测资料,结合冬小麦适宜播种的气候指标,分析了9月下旬及10月上、中旬气温的变化趋势,15、18℃终日的变化趋势,冬前≥0℃积温的变化趋势,冬季负积温的变化趋势以及播期降水量的变化趋势,结果表明:9月下旬及10月上、中旬的旬气温平均每10 a分别升高0.31,0.24,0.40℃;15、1... 相似文献
4.
在分析谷子气候生态适应性的基础上,建立不同气候区谷子气候产量模型。确定影响产量形成关键时段的关键气象因素是≥10℃积温、8～9月平均气温、7月降水以及海拔高度和投入产出比等适生种植区划综合指标体系,据此划分5个谷子气候生态种植区。并提出提高气候生态资源的开发利用途径。 相似文献
5.
根据1961—2010年新丰气象站观测资料,采用线性趋势分析、滑动平均等方法,研究了近50年来新丰县气候资源的变化特征。结果表明,新丰气温呈变暖趋势,特别是21世纪以来升温明显,气温的变化不具有突变特征,冬季对气候变暖贡献最大;稳定≥10℃的活动积温呈增加趋势。降水为减少趋势且具有突变特征,突变点为1991年,降水减少明显;日照也呈减少趋势且在1989年存在突变。进一步分析,发现气候变暖导致春季和秋季干旱事件发生的频率增加;降水虽然呈减少趋势,但夏季的降水呈增加趋势,说明降水强度发生了变化,灾害造成的经济损失在增大。 相似文献
6.
近45年吐鲁番地区气候变化趋势 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
分析了1954-1998年吐鲁番地区各县（市）气温、降水、无霜期、大风日数、酷热日数、寒冷日数、各界限积温、日平均气温≥0℃生长期、气温日较差等气候要素的变化趋势。 相似文献
7.
三明市水稻气候条件分析与气候区划 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2
分析了水稻生长对温度、光照、降水等气候条件的要求及其主要的不利气候因素———早春低温阴雨造成早稻烂种烂秧和秋季寒害对晚稻抽穗扬花的影响 ,确定三明市水稻生长的气候指标为春季稳定通过 10℃初日至秋季稳定通过 2 0℃终日的积温。根据三明市各地活动积温的分布情况和不同品种搭配的早稻播种至晚稻安全齐穗所需的总积温 ,划定了三明市水稻合理布局的气候区划指标。利用活动积温的 80 %保证率建立的区划模型和区划指标将三明市分为 7个水稻种植气候区 ,并提出了水稻生产趋利避害的建议措施。 相似文献
8.
本文根据小麦冬前>0℃积温、降水与灌浆期的5月下旬、6月上旬气温、5月降水量、干热风和连续高温等气候变量,使用模糊数学二级综合决策方法。做小麦年景诊断,历史资料拟合率为71.4％。 一、小麦生产气候型 通过平行观测知道:小麦周期生产中起主要作用的气候因子是气温和降水。而气温和降水影响小麦的关 相似文献
9.
该文分析了云南近50年气候生产力变化特征以及气候变化对农业生产的影响.重点对气温、降水与小麦、水稻产量形成的关系进行了研究, 结果表明12月至翌年2月的降水是小麦增减产的关键因子, ≥10 ℃的积温比降水更有利于水稻生产.同时针对制约农业增产的重要气象灾害发生时期进行诊断, 发现小春作物的主要气象灾害是1~2月的冬旱和2~4月的倒春寒, 大春作物的主要气象灾害是5月干旱和7~8月的低温冷害. 相似文献
10.
利用新疆巴楚气象站1984—2013年逐日气象资料,运用线性回归、趋势系数、异常度、Mann-Kendall突变检验等方法,分析了巴楚县多时间尺度气温的变化特征对冬小麦生长发育和产量的影响。结果表明:近30 a巴楚县冬季、春季平均气温均呈上升趋势,其中春季平均气温上升趋势显著,并于1998年发生了增暖性突变;寒冷日和酷冷日数均呈减少趋势,其中寒冷日数在1996年发生了减少性突变;稳定通过0℃界限温度的初日表现为提前、终日表现为推迟,持续日数则相应表现为增加趋势;日最高气温≥30℃日数呈增加趋势;冬小麦生长季内前期气温偏低,后期气温偏高是影响小麦产量的主要气候因子,其中抽穗、开花期的平均气温与小麦产量显著相关。 相似文献
11.
Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter. 相似文献
12.
Fei LIU Chen XING Jinbao LI Bin WANG Jing CHAI Chaochao GAO Gang HUANG Jian LIU Deliang CHEN 《大气科学进展》2020,37(7):663-670
正The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth's climate and environment. 相似文献
13.
The moving-window correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the synchronous autumn precipitation in Huaxi region, based on the daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation data from 1960 to 2012. The correlation curves of IOD and the early modulation of Huaxi region’s autumn precipitation indicated a mutational site appeared in the 1970s. During 1960 to 1979, when the IOD was in positive phase in autumn, the circulations changed from a “W” shape to an ”M” shape at 500 hPa in Asia middle-high latitude region. Cold flux got into the Sichuan province with Northwest flow, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Western Pacific to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation increase in east Huaxi region. During 1980 to 1999, when the IOD in autumn was positive phase, the atmospheric circulation presented a “W” shape at 500 hPa, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Bay of Bengal to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation ascend in west Huaxi region. In summary, the Indian Ocean changed from cold phase to warm phase since the 1970s, caused the instability of the inter-annual relationship between the IOD and the autumn rainfall in Huaxi region. 相似文献
14.
Various features of the atmospheric environment affect the number of migratory insects, besides their initial population. However, little is known about the impact of atmospheric low-frequency oscillation(10 to 90 days) on insect migration. A case study was conducted to ascertain the influence of low-frequency atmospheric oscillation on the immigration of brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens(Stl), in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. The results showed the following:(1) The number of immigrating N. lugens from April to June of 2007 through 2016 mainly exhibited a periodic oscillation of 10 to 20 days.(2) The 10-20 d low-frequency number of immigrating N. lugens was significantly correlated with a low-frequency wind field and a geopotential height field at 850 h Pa.(3) During the peak phase of immigration, southwest or south winds served as a driving force and carried N. lugens populations northward, and when in the back of the trough and the front of the ridge, the downward airflow created a favorable condition for N. lugens to land in the study area. In conclusion, the northward migration of N. lugens was influenced by a low-frequency atmospheric circulation based on the analysis of dynamics. This study was the first research connecting atmospheric low-frequency oscillation to insect migration. 相似文献
15.
The atmospheric and oceanic conditions before the onset of EP El Ni?o and CP El Ni?o in nearly 30 years are compared and analyzed by using 850 hPa wind, 20℃ isotherm depth, sea surface temperature and the Wheeler and Hendon index. The results are as follows: In the western equatorial Pacific, the occurrence of the anomalously strong westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Its intensity is far stronger than that of the CP El Ni?o. Two months before the El Ni?o, the anomaly westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o have extended to the eastern Pacific region, while the westerly wind anomaly of the CP El Ni?o can only extend to the west of the dateline three months before the El Ni?o and later stay there. Unlike the EP El Ni?o, the CP El Ni?o is always associated with easterly wind anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific before its onset. The thermocline depth anomaly of the EP El Ni?o can significantly move eastward and deepen. In addition, we also find that the evolution of thermocline is ahead of the development of the sea surface temperature for the EP El Ni?o. The strong MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o in the western and central Pacific is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Measured by the standard deviation of the zonal wind square, the intensity of MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o is significantly greater than that of the CP El Ni?o before the onset of El Ni?o. 相似文献
16.
基于最新的GTAP8 (Global Trade Analysis Project）数据库,使用投入产出法,分析了2004年到2007年全球贸易变化下南北集团贸易隐含碳变化及对全球碳排放的影响。结果显示,随着发展中国家进出口规模扩张,全球贸易隐含碳流向的重心逐渐向发展中国家转移。2004年到2007年,发达国家高端设备制造业和服务业出口以及发展中国家资源、能源密集型行业及中低端制造业出口的趋势加强,该过程的生产转移导致全球碳排放增长4.15亿t,占研究时段全球贸易隐含碳增量的63%。未来发展中国家的出口隐含碳比重还将进一步提高。贸易变化带来的南北集团隐含碳流动变化对全球应对气候变化行动的影响日益突出,发达国家对此负有重要责任。 相似文献
17.
Analysis of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Height Characteristics over the Arctic Ocean Using the Aircraft and GPS Soundings 
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下载免费PDF全文 正ERRATUM to: Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 4(2011), 124-130 On page 126 of the printed edition (Issue 2, Volume 4), Fig. 2 was a wrong figure because the contact author made mistake giving the wrong one. The corrected edition has been updated on our website. The editorial office is sincerely sorry for any 相似文献
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《大气科学进展》2014,(6)
正AN Junling;see LI Ying et al.;(5),1221—1232AN Junling;see QU Yu et al.;(4),787-800AN Junling;see WANG Feng et al.;(6),1331-1342Ania POLOMSKA-HARLICK;see Jieshun ZHU et al.;(4),743-754Baek-Min KIM;see Seong-Joong KIM et al.;(4),863-878BAI Tao;see LI Gang et al.;(1),66-84BAO Qing;see YANG Jing et al.;(5),1147—1156BEI Naifang; 相似文献
20.
《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2014,(6)
正Journal of Meteorological Research is an international academic journal in atmospheric sciences edited and published by Acta Meteorologica Sinica Press,sponsored by the Chinese Meteorological Society.It has been acting as a bridge of academic exchange between Chinese and foreign meteorologists and aiming at introduction of the current advancements in atmospheric sciences in China.The journal columns include Articles.Note and Correspondence,and research letters.Contributions from all over the world are welcome. 相似文献