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1.
春季南半球环状模与长江流域夏季降水的关系：Ⅱ 印度洋和南海海温的“海洋桥”作用 总被引：6，自引：3，他引：3
用回归、合成、相关、ESVD等方法分析了春夏季印度洋、南海海温异常在春季南半球环状模(SAM)与夏季长江中下游降水关系中的作用.研究发现春季南半球环状模指数(SAMI)正(负)异常时,同期南印度洋中高纬、北印度洋海域海温出现了明显正(负)异常,这种海温的正(负)异常在夏季依然存在,并且北印度洋的海温异常得到加强.对印度洋和南海海域详细划分区域后的进一步分析表明春季南半球热带外大气环流(SAM)异常可以强迫南印度洋中高纬海域海温发生明显异常.这种异常可以持续到夏季,而且表现出传播特性,即南印度洋中高纬海温异常可以传播到北印度洋(包括阿拉伯海和孟加拉湾)和南海海域,加强这些海域的海温异常.对东亚夏季风与夏季海温关系的分析表明东亚夏季风异常对应的夏季北印度洋、南海海温异常与春季SAM异常对应的夏季北印度洋、南海海温异常的形势相似,符号相反.说明印度洋、南海海温是春季SAM影响夏季长江中下游降水的一个"桥梁".基本思路为强(弱)春季SAM可以引起南印度洋中高纬海域海温的偏高(偏低);南印度洋中高纬海域偏高(偏低)的海温从春季持续到夏季并且传播到阿拉伯海、孟加拉湾、南海海域;这些海区偏高(偏低)的海温可以导致东亚夏季风减弱(加强),而东亚夏季风减弱(加强)是长江中下游降水偏多(偏少)的一种有利条件. 相似文献
2.
用SVD方法分析了1、4、7月全球OLR与夏季(6—8月)中国华中区域降水场的关系,结果表明:若1月南非东部沿岸至西印度洋、北美北部OLR(Outgoing Longwave Radiation)偏低(偏高),或北非、美国西南沿岸及近海OLR偏高(偏低),则夏季长江中游降水将偏多(偏少)。若4月澳大利亚至东印度洋、日界线以东热带太平洋OLR偏低(偏高),或西北太平洋偏高(偏低),则夏季长江中游降水将偏多(偏少)。若7月东印度洋—澳大利亚大陆、东亚OLR偏低(偏高),则夏季华中区域长江及其以北降水将偏多(偏少),湖南和江西南部降水将偏少(偏多)。夏季长江中游旱、涝年前期OLR明显的区别在于热带太平洋:涝年1月东、西太平洋为明显负、正异常,4月这种异常进一步加剧;旱年1月正好相反,东、西太平洋为微弱的正、负异常,4月转为东、西太平洋为微弱的负、正异常。太平洋暖池OLR低值区(强对流区)4、7月持续偏南,是夏季长江中游降水偏多的另一重要信号。冬、春季OLR与夏季长江中游降水大尺度关联的可能机制为:若1月热带东、西太平洋OLR为明显负、正异常,4月这种异常进一步加剧,也即冬、春季热带太平洋Walker环流持续减弱,从而使夏季暖池对流活动减弱,热带辐合带偏南,Hadley环流偏弱,使夏季西太平洋副热带高压主体位置偏南,导致中国夏季主雨带不能北推至黄河流域,而长期滞留长江中下游,最后造成长江中游降水异常。 相似文献
3.
利用四川省132个气象观测站降水资料和NOAA的逐日向外长波辐射(OLR)资料,分析了主汛期热带东印度洋MJO活动异常年低频对流传播的显著差异,及其影响四川盆地主汛期降水的物理过程。探讨了热带东印度洋MJO活跃年低频振荡向四川盆地传播的路径和源头,以及孟加拉湾西南季风系统、东亚副热带季风系统的低频振荡分别对四川盆地主汛期低频对流活动的影响。结果表明:热带印度洋的低频对流激发了孟加拉湾西南季风ISO进入活跃期,并在西南气流的引导下继续向四川盆地传播;低频对流先从热带印度洋东传至菲律宾群岛南部的热带洋面,并向东亚副热带地区北传,激发了东亚副热带季风ISO的活跃加强,进而向四川盆地西传。热带印度洋MJO活动异常对四川盆地降水的调制,正是通过两支季风系统(孟加拉湾夏季风和东亚副热带夏季风)的共同作用,影响了四川盆地主汛期异常的对流活动以及降水的多寡。 相似文献
4.
陈红 《南京气象学院学报》2020,12(4):442-449
利用NCEP/NCAR再分析环流资料、CMAP降水量和NOAA海温资料研究了热带印度洋夏季水汽输送的时空变化特征,并考察其对南亚季风区夏季降水的影响.热带印度洋夏季异常水汽输送第一模态表现为异常水汽从南海向西到达孟加拉湾后分成两支,其中一支继续往西到达印度次大陆和阿拉伯海,对应印度半岛南端和中南半岛的西风水汽输送减弱,导致这些区域降水减少;第二模态表现为异常水汽从赤道东印度洋沿赤道西印度洋、阿拉伯海、印度半岛、中南半岛的反气旋输送,印度和孟加拉湾南部为反气旋异常水汽输送,水汽辐散、降水减少,而印度东北部为气旋性水汽输送,水汽辐合、降水增多.就水汽输送与局地海温的关系而言,水汽输送第一模态与热带印度洋海温整体增暖关系密切,而第二模态与同期印度洋偶极子关系密切. 相似文献
5.
对夏季的向外长波辐射(OLR)场及前期热带海温之间的奇异值分解(SVD)分析表明,当自前冬开始的热带海温呈La Nia 型异常分布,相应的对流的最佳耦合模态将是:从印度半岛经孟加拉湾直至南海以及西太平洋暖池都为强对流活动区,而在中国江淮流域地区则为弱区.当海温呈El Nio分布时,则相反.数值试验的结果是:在1998年实际海温强迫下,模式十分成功地模拟了该年夏季流场的基本特征,南海季风爆发的日期及强度皆与实际十分符合,印度季风也偏弱.特别是模式成功地模拟出了1998年长江流域6～7月的强降水,距平百分率达到100%以上.改变热带海温,分别用气候海温代替赤道东太平洋和西印度洋实际海温.结果发现,在用赤道东太平洋气候海温取代实际海温时,与1998年实况相比,印度季风与南海季风明显加强,长江流域降水趋于正常值.即如果1998年不出现El Nio现象,或者海温异常的强度减弱,则长江流域降水就会大大减弱.1998年热带西印度洋海温异常对东亚季风的影响与热带东太平洋十分相像.暖洋面将有利于长江流域的强降水,而不利于南海季风的加强.关键词:海面温度;长江流域;洪涝;南海季风;数值试验 相似文献
6.
关于亚洲夏季风爆发及北半球季节突变的物理机理的诊断分析:Ⅰ季风爆发的阶段性特征 总被引：7，自引：1，他引：6
该工作将亚洲季风区作为一个复杂的海-陆-气耦合系统,来深入考察季风区海-气、陆-气相互作用的基本事实和物理过程,探讨它们在决定亚洲季风爆发及北半球行星尺度大气环流的季节突变的物理机理。本文是系列文章的第一篇,着重研究亚洲夏季风爆发的区域性和阶段性特征,以及过渡季节热带、副热带地区海-气、陆-气相互作用的基本事实,初步分析了它们之间的联系。研究表明,热带季风对流于4月底到5月初越过赤道进入北半球,首先出现在孟加拉湾东部-中南半岛西南部地区,然后于5月中旬和6月上旬末分别出现在南海和印度半岛地区,呈阶段性爆发的特征。季风对流在孟加拉湾东部-中南半岛西南部地区爆发阶段,在大气环流变化和对流活动中心位置出现区别于南海季风和印度季风爆发的特征。通过对地表感热通量和海表潜热通量的分析,表明热带海洋上海表感热通量甚小于海表潜热通量,南海季风爆发时期印度洋上海表潜热通量显著增大,印度季风爆发后海表潜热通量的高值中心在孟加拉湾和阿拉伯海上建立起来。印度洋上低层增强的过赤道气流引起的强烈的海-气相互作用导致海表水汽的大量蒸发,并通过其输送作用,为季风对流的爆发提供了充足的水汽来源。过渡季节在副热带地区(沿27.5～37.5°N纬带上), 青藏高原和西太平洋上地(海)表感热通量和潜热通量均有迅速的季节变化性, 但趋势相反。当青藏高原上地表感热通量和潜热通量呈阶段性的显著加大, 西太平洋上海表感热通量和潜热通量迅速减小。这种大陆和海洋对大气加热的显著的季节化的差异, 影响着大气环流的季节转变。 相似文献
7.
印度洋海温偶极振荡对东亚环流及降水影响 总被引：4，自引：10，他引：4
利用NCEP／NCAR提供的50a再分析资料、英国气象局全球海温资料、中国气象局整编的160站降水资料，采用相关、合成、奇异值分解等方法讨论了印度洋海温异常偶极振荡对东亚夏季大气环流及降水的影响。结果表明：印度洋海温偶极振荡异常，引起了大气环流的异常，影响了季风强度和雨带分布。印度洋海温偶极振荡正位相年时，印度洋上为东风异常，西太平洋副高偏西、偏南、偏强，菲律宾附近对流活动减弱，东亚夏季风偏强，华南夏季降水偏多；印度洋海温偶极振荡负位相年时，西太平洋副高偏东、偏北，东亚夏季风偏弱，长江黄河之间有异常辐合，降水偏多。 相似文献
8.
亚洲热带近海海温与云南夏季降水的关系 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
分析了1961~1999年亚洲热带近海海温与云南降水的关系。通过研究云南夏季降水对近海海温异常的响应,发现云南初夏的降水与亚洲热带近海海温有明显的负相关关系,这种降水减少海温正距平的情况在北印度洋西部和阿拉伯海表现比孟加拉湾和南海更显著,但是在盛夏相关关系不显著。同时发现云南西南部的夏季降水与前期孟加拉湾海温有显著的正相关,而与其它海域的海温相关不显著。滇东南的夏季降水只与前期南海的海温有显著的正相关。 相似文献
9.
海陆分布和地形对1998年夏季风爆发的热力影响 总被引：8，自引：9，他引：8
应用1980－1995年5天平均的CMAP降水资料、美国NMC850hPa风、卫星反演的向外长波辐射（OLR）和上部对流层水汽亮温（BT）等资料分析比较了南海夏季风爆发前后的基本特征。结果发现：BT能够反映南海夏季风的爆发及其与周围地区降水的关系，但局地降水信息的反映不够具体；OLR能够比较好的反映热带海洋上的降水，但陆地上的低值OLR可能受到地形的影响，仅仅850hPa风场不能完全确定夏季风的爆发。南海季风转换区域定义在南海的中北部比较合适，这是因为南海夏季风爆发前就存在着长年位于南海南部的带海洋对流性雨带；南海夏季风爆发后西南季风气流和季风雨带从印度洋经孟加拉湾和南海伸向西北太平洋，开始了南亚和东亚夏季风的爆发过程。 相似文献
10.
冬季和春季印度洋海温异常年际变率模态对中国东部夏季降水的可能影响过程 总被引：11，自引：4，他引：7
印度洋热力状况是影响全球气候变化和亚洲季风变异的一个重要的因素,但以往研究更多关注热带印度洋海温的变化,对南印度洋中高纬地区海温变化关注不够,由此限制了我们对印度洋的全面认识.本文研究了年际尺度上整个印度洋海温异常主导模态的特征及其对我国东部地区夏季降水的可能影响过程,以期望为气候变异研究及预测提供理论依据.研究结果表明:全印度洋海温异常年际变率的主导模态特征是在南印度洋副热带地区海温异常呈现西南—东北反向变化的偶极子模态,西极子位于马达加斯加以东南洋面,东极子位于澳大利亚以西洋面;同时,热带印度洋海温异常与东极子一致.当西极子为正的海温异常,东极子、热带印度洋为负异常时定义为正的印度洋海温异常年际变率模态;反之,则为负的印度洋海温异常年际变率模态.从冬至春,印度洋海温异常年际变率模态具有较好的季节持续性;与我国长江中游地区夏季降水显著负相关,而与我国华南地区夏季降水显著正相关.其可能的影响过程为:对于正的冬、春季印度洋海温异常年际变率模态事件,印度洋地区异常纬向风的经向大气遥相关使得热带印度洋盛行西风异常,导致春、夏季海洋性大陆对流减弱,使夏季西太平洋副热带高压强度偏弱、位置偏东偏北,造成华南地区夏季降水增多,长江中游地区降水减少;反之亦然.同时,印度洋海温异常年际变率模态可通过改变印度洋和孟加拉湾向长江中游地区的水汽输送而影响其夏季降水. 相似文献
11.
The impact of strong (weak) intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) over South China Sea (SCS) and South Asia (SA) in summer on the SCS and SA summer monsoon and the summer rainfall in Eastern China are studied by using the NCEP-NCAR analysis data and the rainfall data of 160 stations in China from 1961 to 2010. It is found that the impacts are significantly different in different months of summer. The study shows that in June and July cyclonic (anticyclonic) atmospheric circulation over SCS and SA corresponds to strong (weak) ISO over SCS. In August, however, strong (weak) ISO over SCS still corresponds to cyclonic (anticyclonic) atmospheric circulation over SA. In June and August cyclonic (anticyclonic) atmospheric circulation over South Asia corresponds to strong (weak) ISO over SA while a strong (weak) ISO corresponds to anticyclonic (cyclonic) atmospheric circulation over SA in July. Besides, in June the strong (weak) ISO over SA corresponds to cyclonic (anticyclonic) atmospheric circulation over SCS, while in July and August the atmospheric circulation is in the same phase regardless of whether the ISO over SA is strong or weak. The impacts of the strong（weak）ISO over SCS on the rainfall of eastern China are similar in June and July, which favors less (more) rainfall in Yangtze-Huaihe Rivers basin but sufficient (deficient) rainfall in the south of Yangtze River. However, the impacts are not so apparent in August. In South Asia, the strong (weak) ISO in July results in less (more) rainfall in the south of Yangtze River but sufficient (deficient) rainfall in Yangtze-Huaihe Rivers basin. The influence on the rainfall in eastern China in June and August is not as significant as in July. 相似文献
12.
Based on the data of 1950 – 1999 monthly global SST from Hadley Center, NCAR/NCEP
reanalysis data and rainfall over 160 weather stations in China, investigation is conducted into the
difference of summer rainfall in China (hereafter referred to as the “CS rainfall”) between the years with
the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) occurring independently and those with IOD occurring along with ENSO so
as to study the effects of El Ni?o - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the relationship between IOD and the
CS rainfall. It is shown that CS rainfall will be more than normal in South China (centered in Hunan
province) in the years of positive IOD occurring independently; the CS rainfall will be less (more) than
normal in North China (Southeast China) in the years of positive IOD occurring together with ENSO. The
effect of ENSO is offsetting (enhancing) the relationship between IOD and summer rainfall in Southwest
China, the region joining the Yangtze River basin with the Huaihe River basin (hereafter referred to as the
“Yangtze-Huaihe basin”) and North China (Southeast China). The circulation field is also examined for
preliminary causes of such an influence. 相似文献
13.
Guangzhou spring rainfall mainly exhibits interannual variation of Quasi-biannual and
interdecadal variation of 30 yrs, and is in the period of weak rainfall at interdecadal time scale.
SST anomalies (SSTA) of Nino3 are the strongest precursor of Guangzhou spring rainfall. They
have significant positive correlation from previous November and persist stably to April. Nino3
SSTA in the previous winter affects Guangzhou spring rainfall through North Pacific subtropical
high and low wind in spring. When Nino3 SSTA is positive in the previous winter, spring
subtropical high is intense and westward, South China is located in the area of ascending airflow at
the edge of the subtropical high, and water vapor transporting to South China is intensified by
anticyclone circulation to the east of the Philippines. So Guangzhou spring rainfall is heavy. When
Nino3 SSTA is negative, the subtropical high is weak and eastward, South China is far away from
the subtropical high and is located in the area of descending airflow, and water vapor transporting
to South China is weak because low-level cyclonic circulation controls areas to the east of the
Philippines and north wind prevails in South China. So Guangzhou spring rainfall is weak and
spring drought is resulted. 相似文献
14.
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE 30 TO 60 DAY OSCILLATION OF ATMOSPHERIC HEAT SOURCE AND THE DROUGHT AND FLOOD EVENTS IN JUNE IN THE SOUTH OF CHINA 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
Based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the observed precipitation data in the south of China from 1958 to 2000,the impact of 30 to 60 day oscillation of atmospheric heat sources on the drought and flood events in June in the south of China is discussed.During the flood(drought) events,there exists an anomalous low-frequency anticyclone(cyclone) at the low level of the troposphere over the South China Sea and the northwestern Pacific,accompanied with anomalous low-frequency heat sinks(heat sources),while there exists an anomalous low-frequency cyclone(anticyclone) with anomalous heat sources(sinks) over the area from the south of China to the south of Japan.On average,the phase evolution of the low-frequency in drought events is 7 to 11 days ahead of that in flood events in May to June in the south of China.In flood events,low-frequency heat sources and cyclones are propagated northward from the southern South China Sea,northwestward from the warm pool of the western Pacific and westward from the northwestern Pacific around 140°E,which have very important impact on the abundant rainfall in June in the south of China.However,in drought events,the northward propagations of the low-frequency heat sources and cyclones from the South China Sea and its vicinity are rather late compared with those in flood events,and there is no obvious westward propagation of the heat sources from the northwestern Pacific.The timing of the low-frequency heat source propagation has remarkable impact on the June rainfall in the south of China. 相似文献
15.
华南前汛期起止日期的确定及降水年际变化特征分析 总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10
利用国家气候中心提供的华南地区74测站1957—2001年的逐日降水资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,对华南前汛期雨季开始期与结束期的定义标准作了改进;研究了华南前汛期降水雨量、雨日的年际变化特征以及变化趋势的空间分布特征;用小波分析法分析华南前汛期降水的周期分布特征。分析结果发现：45年来前汛期开始期总体上呈现偏早趋势,而结束期具有偏晚的趋势,两者的年际变化十分显著;45年来华南全区总雨量、雨日呈正趋势变化,且两者的空间分布特征非常相似。华南前汛期内雨量、雨日总体上呈现增长趋势并且具有明显的年际变化特征,存在准2年、3～5年、6～8年的振荡周期。 相似文献
16.
选取中国大陆均匀分布的８０个测站１９５１—１９９４年历年５—６月月总降水量标准化距平资料，利用ＥＯＦ和ＲＥＯＦ方法对春末夏初降水量异常的空间结构及时间演变规律作了研究。结果表明，中国春末夏初降水异常在空间上主要表现为南北相反变化的差异（ＬＶ）。旋转载荷向量场（ＲＬＶ）反映出１１个主要降水异常类型区。旋转主分量（ＲＰＣ）揭示了４４年来春末夏初降水的时间演变特征：江淮和江南地区降水量减少，东北和南疆地区降水量增多；河套东部、华南、北疆、华北地区呈多雨—少雨—多雨的抛物线型，而河套西部、西南地区呈少雨—多雨—少雨的反抛物线型。 相似文献
17.
In order to understand the impact of initial conditions upon prediction accuracy of short-term
forecast and nowcast of precipitation in South China, four experiments i.e. a control, an assimilation of
conventional sounding and surface data, testing with nudging rainwater data and the assimilation of
radar-derived radial wind, are respectively conducted to simulate a case of warm-sector heavy rainfall that
occurred over South China, by using the GRAPES_MESO model. The results show that (1) assimilating
conventional surface and sounding observations helps improve the 24-h rainfall forecast in both the area
and order of magnitude; (2) nudging rainwater contributes to a significant improvement of nowcast, and (3)
the assimilation of radar-derived radial winds distinctly improves the 24-h rainfall forecast in both the area
and order of magnitude. These results serve as significant technical reference for the study on short-term
forecast and nowcast of precipitation over South China in the future. 相似文献
18.
用WRF与MM5模拟1998年三次暴雨过程的对比分析 总被引：32，自引：2，他引：32
使用NCAR和NOAA的新一代中尺度模式WRF(WeatherResearchandForecast)和UCAR/PSU的MM5 (v3)模式 ,对 1998年发生在中国的三次强降水过程 ,即 5月的 1次华南暴雨过程 ,7月初的 1次淮河流域暴雨过程和 7月下旬的 1次长江流域暴雨过程进行了数值模拟。模拟结果表明 ,WRF模式能够成功模拟这几次不同性质的降水过程 ;与MM5对比 ,WRF更好地模拟了引起这几次降水过程中的主要天气系统的位置和移动过程 ,从而使WRF模拟的降水落区好于MM5。但在这几次过程中WRF模拟的降水都较MM 5为小 ,也小于实况值 ,分析可见 ,WRF模拟的垂直速度明显小于MM5的模拟结果 ,这可能是导致模拟的降水偏小的原因之一。 相似文献
19.
An ensemble prediction system based on the GRAPES model, using multi-physics, is used to discuss the influence of different physical processes in numerical models on forecast of heavy rainfall in South China in the annually first raining season(AFRS). Pattern, magnitude and area of precipitation, evolution of synoptic situation, as well as apparent heat source and apparent moisture sink between different ensemble members are comparatively analyzed. The choice of parameterization scheme for land-surface processes gives rise to the largest influence on the precipitation prediction. The influences of cumulus-convection and cloud-microphysics processes are mainly focused on heavy rainfall;the use of cumulus-convection parameterization tends to produce large-area and light rainfall. Change in parameterization schemes for land-surface and cumulus-convection processes both will cause prominent change in forecast of both dynamic and thermodynamic variables, while change in cloud-microphysics processes show primary impact on dynamic variables. Comparing simplified Arakawa-Schubert and Kain-Fritsch with Betts-Miller-Janjic schemes, SLAB with NOAH schemes, as well as both WRF single moment 6-class and NCEP 3-class with simplified explicit schemes of phase-mixed cloud and precipitation shows that the former predicts stronger low-level jets and high humidity concentration, more convective rainfall and local heavy rainfall, and have better performance in precipitation forecast. Appropriate parameterization schemes can reasonably describe the physical process related to heavy rainfall in South China in the AFRS, such as low-level convergence, latent heat release, vertical transport of heat and water vapor, thereby depicting the multi-scale interactions of low-level jet and meso-scale convective systems in heavy rainfall suitably, and improving the prediction of heavy rainfall in South China in the AFRS as a result. 相似文献
20.
Guangdong suffered from the most serious precipitation of its corresponding time during the dragon-boat race of 2008 since 1951.The relationship between the strong dragon-boat precipitation in 2008 and atmospheric low-frequency oscillation was analyzed with the methods of wavelet analysis,correlation and Lanczos filter.Results showed that the daily rainfall exhibits a significant 7 to 12-day quasi-periodic oscillation(namely quasi-10-day oscillation) during the precipitation,the daily 500 hPa height over Guangdong exhibits a significant 8 to 13-day quasi-periodic oscillation,and the daily 850 hPa zonal wind averaged over the north of the South China Sea presents a significant quasi-12-day periodic oscillation.The Guangdong rainfall during the annually first rainy season is most closely correlated with monsoon over the north of South China Sea,and less closely with an upper-level trough at 500 hPa affecting Guangdong.Strong monsoon surges induced two heavy rainfall processes in 2008.The monsoon surges joined with a westward-propagating quasi-10-day oscillation that originated from the central Pacific and was enhanced in a strong convective region east of the Philippines and a northward-propagating monsoon that originated from the southern South China Sea was enhanced.With composite analysis of typical phases,the common evolution characteristics of atmospheric circulation of the two heavy rainfall processes were analyzed for different phases.These features can be used as reference for medium prediction of heavy rainfall processes in Guangdong. 相似文献