Monte-Carlo模拟与经验路径模型预测台风极值风速的对比   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

郭云霞  侯一筠  齐鹏 《海洋学报》2020,42(7):64-77

台风是我国东南沿海区域每年发生的严重自然灾害之一。本文分别采用传统的Monte-Carlo模拟方法以及较为先进的经验路径模拟方法预测中国东南沿海区域台风的极值风速(10 m高度处10 min平均值)，并对两种方法的预测结果进行了对比。本文将东南海岸线向内陆扩展约200 km的区域划分为0.25°×0.25°的网格，以每个网格点作为研究点。首先采用Monte-Carlo模拟方法产生每个研究点1 000年间的虚拟台风事件。然后采用经验路径模型方法构建了西北太平洋1 000年的热带气旋事件集，采用模拟圆方法从中提取对各个研究站点有影响的台风事件。接着采用Yan Meng风场模型计算每个研究点台风的最大风速，构成极值风速序列。最后采用极值分布模型预测每个研究点不同重现期的极值风速，并对两种不同方法预测的结果进行了对比。研究发现在研究区域的内陆侧经验路径方法预测的风速略高于Monte-Carlo模拟方法预测的结果，而在海岸沿线一带经验路径方法预测的结果略低，这主要是由两种方法构造的虚拟台风的中心压强存在差异以及模型本身的不确定性造成的。本文的研究结果可以为防灾减灾系统提供有益的参考。  相似文献   

Boussinesq相位解析的海岸水动力学数学模型研究进展     

张尧  谢欣  陶爱峰  王岗  陈新平  郑金海 《海洋通报》2018,(5):481-493

由于在平衡计算效率和精度上具有优势,Boussinesq相位解析数学模型研究不断取得突破,已成为波浪和水流精细化模拟的较优解析方式,为海岸工程、环境、地质等问题提供了实用和高效的研究手段。本文对已有Boussinesq类模型的研究进行了评述,深入探讨其重要发展、实际应用和理论瓶颈,从高阶非静压修正、GPU准三维高性能算法编译、波浪破碎和泥沙运移沉积等4个方面提出未来可能的科学突破方向。  相似文献   

Dynamic modeling and vibration suppression for an offshore wind turbine with a tuned mass damper in floating platform     

《Applied Ocean Research》2019

The worldwide demand for renewable energy is increasing rapidly. Wind energy appears as a good solution to copy with the energy shortage situation. In recent years, offshore wind energy has become an attractive option due to the increasing development of the multitudinous offshore wind turbines. Because of the unstable vibration for the barge-type offshore wind turbine in various maritime conditions, an ameliorative method incorporating a tuned mass damper (TMD) in offshore wind turbine platform is proposed to demonstrate the improvement of the structural dynamic performance in this investigation. The Lagrange's equations are applied to establish a limited degree-of-freedom (DOF) mathematical model for the barge-type offshore wind turbine. The objective function is defined as the suppression rate of the standard deviation for the tower top deflection due to the fact that the tower top deflection is essential to the tower bottom fatigue loads, then frequency tuning method and genetic algorithm (GA) are employed respectively to obtain the globally optimum TMD design parameters using this objective function. Numerical simulations based on FAST have been carried out in typical load cases in order to evaluate the effect of the passive control system. The need to prevent the platform mass increasing obviously has become apparent due to the installation of a heavy TMD in the barge-type platform. In this case, partial ballast is substituted for the equal mass of the tuned mass damper, and then the vibration mitigation is simulated in five typical load cases. The results show that the passive control can improve the dynamic responses of the barge-type wind turbine by placing a TMD in the floating platform. Through replacing partial ballast with a uniform mass of the tuned mass damper, a significant reduction of the dynamic response is also observed in simulation results for the barge-type floating structure.  相似文献   

中国沿海小黄鱼种群动力学及其空间异质性研究     

麻秋云  焦燕  任一平  薛莹 《海洋学报(英文版)》2020,39(10):107-119

小黄鱼是我国近海四种最重要的经济鱼类之一，在过去的几十年中小黄鱼种群及其两个地理亚种群经历了巨大的变化。小黄鱼的种群动力学研究，对于维持这一重要渔业的可持续管理是至关重要的。目前仅有的两个小黄鱼种群动力学模型只涵盖了较短的时间，且没有关注其空间差异。本文研究了1968年至2015年间黄渤海和东海小黄鱼的种群动力学模型，包含和不包含空间分层结构的两种贝叶斯模型被用于分析其种群动力学的大尺度空间异质性。本文分析了不同的假设，来研究小黄鱼种群动力学潜在的变化趋势。研究结果表明小黄鱼种群动力学特征具有明显的时间和空间变化。种群的增长速度从20世纪八十年代开始增加，而可捕系数从1981年到2015年增加了两倍多。与黄渤海亚种群相比，东海的小黄鱼亚种群生长速度更快，遭受的捕捞压力也更大。基于最大可持续产量MSY的参考点表明，无论是整个小黄鱼种群还是两个亚种群，近年来都有非常高的过度捕捞风险。因此我国小黄鱼的渔业管理急需更加保守的管理策略，同时考虑其地域差异。本文所用的方法可以应用于其他种类的资源评估和渔业管理，尤其是具有空间异质性和数据有限的种类。  相似文献   

Hydrological impact of a reservoir network in the upper Gan River Basin,China     

Ningpeng Dong  Zhongbo Yu  Chuanguo Yang  Mingxiang Yang  Wenzhuo Wang 《水文研究》2019,33(12):1709-1723

  相似文献   

Pricing Weather Derivatives Index based on Temperature: The Case of Bahir Dar,Ethiopia     

Tesfahun BERHANE  Aemiro SHIBABAW  Gurju AWGICHEW 《资源与生态学报(英文版)》2019,10(4):415-423

In this paper we present a stochastic model for daily average temperature to calculate the temperature indices upon which temperature-based derivatives are written. We propose a seasonal mean and volatility model that describes the daily average temperature behavior using the mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. We also use higher order continuous-time autoregressive process with lag 3 for modeling the time evolution of the temperatures after removing trend and seasonality. Our model is fitted to 11 years of data recorded, in the period 1 January 2005 to 31 December 2015, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia, obtained from Ethiopia National Meteorological Services Agency. The analytical approximation formulas are used to price heating degree days (HDD) and cooling degree days (CDD) futures. The suggested model is analytically tractable for derivation of explicit prices for CDD and HDD futures and option. The price of the CDD future is calculated, using analytical approximation formulas. Numerical examples are presented to indicate the accuracy of the method. The results show that our model performs better to predict CDD indices.  相似文献   

黑潮流域海温适应性观测敏感区诊断方法研究     

崔宝龙  笪良龙  过武宏  韩梅 《海洋科学》2018,42(7):80-86

敏感区诊断是适应性观测的关键问题,集合变换卡尔曼方法(EnsembleTransformKalmanFilter,ETKF)是目前主要的诊断方法之一。将集合变换卡尔曼方法应用于海洋环境适应性观测,根据ROMS海洋模式数据构建海表温度集合预报,以黑潮流域宫古海峡附近海域为验证区进行敏感区诊断计算,分析不同间隔时间条件下敏感区分布情况,结合模拟系统观测试验验证在敏感区进行适应性观测对预报质量的提升效果。结果表明,在诊断所得敏感区内添加观测能够提升预报质量;随时间间隔增大,敏感区向上游区域平移且预报质量提升效果减小;与在验证区整体添加观测相比,敏感区观测对预报质量提升效果基本相同并且观测成本明显减少。  相似文献   

中国九龙江河口营养盐基准值研究     

刘保莉  曹文志  黄铮  陈文慧  陈辉煌  刘录三 《海洋学报(英文版)》2018,37(2):1-13

One of the key concerns in estuarine and coastal environments is eutrophication, which is known to be closely connected to nutrient enrichment. To control and improve surface water quality, nutrient criteria are recommended in order to provide reference conditions for the environment. However, the current datasets of nutrient criteria in China are either designed for surface water or sea water, and as such these are not suitable for assessing estuarine water quality, especially given the unique ecosystem and dynamic properties of estuaries. To address this issue in current estuarine water management, nutrient criteria have been developed for a local estuary in the southeast of China. Segmentation of the Jiulong River Estuary, China was firstly analysed through field investigations carried out during 2013–2014, which resulted in the delineation of three segments characterized by their distinct properties in relation to salinity, hydrology, ecosystems, etc. Historical records from 1997 to 2014 were then analysed using statistical modelling to develop candidate nutrient criteria for the estuary.This stage of the analysis was undertaken in combination with the study of nutrient status records from the 1980s,which were used to establish a baseline reference condition. The recommended criteria values of dissolved inorganic nitrogen(DIN) in Segments Ⅰ, Ⅱ and Ⅲ of the Jiulong River Estuary are 64, 21 and 14 μmol/L,respectively, and the corresponding values for soluble reactive phosphorus(SRP) are 0.89, 0.76 and 0.89 μmol/L,respectively. It should be emphasised that these values are site-dependent, and that different results may be achieved at other locations depending on the physical and biogeochemical characteristics of an estuary, or even a single site within a catchment. It is hoped that by demonstrating a possible methodological approach and methods of nutrient criteria derivation in the Jiulong River Estuary, the current study will offer researchers some fundamental basis from which to begin to develop more complete nutrient criteria indices for the study of nutrient conditions in other estuaries throughout China.  相似文献   

SWAN模型对实验室小尺度浅水波浪模拟研究     

时莹  梁书秀  孙昭晨 《海洋工程》2018,36(6):116-123

基于浅水斜坡地形的物理模型试验数据,考察SWAN模型对实验室小尺度浅水波浪的模拟效果,进而检验其浅水项的模拟精度。模拟中采用直接输入初始测点的实测海浪谱进行造波,重点考察浅水中三波相互作用和变浅破碎两个源项,对不同工况下,SWAN模式在水深条件变化下的有效波高、谱平均周期、海浪谱演化的模拟能力进行研究。研究表明:模拟的有效波高较符合实测波浪的增长和衰减,但谱平均周期计算值明显偏小;海浪谱的能量转移机制同实测有较大区别,频谱模拟结果出现高频高估、低频低估现象。对两个源项进行对比分析得出三波相互作用对海浪谱的能量转换影响远大于变浅破碎耗散。想要提高近岸区谱平均周期和海浪谱的模拟精度则SWAN模型中三波非线性项的计算精确度仍需更多研究和改进。  相似文献   

The exponential decline in saturated hydraulic conductivity with depth: a novel method for exploring its effect on water flow paths and transit time distribution          下载免费PDF全文

A. A. Ameli  J. J. McDonnell  K. Bishop 《水文研究》2016,30(14):2438-2450

The strong vertical gradient in soil and subsoil saturated hydraulic conductivity is characteristic feature of the hydrology of catchments. Despite the potential importance of these strong gradients, they have proven difficult to model using robust physically based schemes. This has hampered the testing of hypotheses about the implications of such vertical gradients for subsurface flow paths, residence times and transit time distribution. Here we present a general semi‐analytical solution for the simulation of 2D steady‐state saturated‐unsaturated flow in hillslopes with saturated hydraulic conductivity that declines exponentially with depth. The grid‐free solution satisfies mass balance exactly over the entire saturated and unsaturated zones. The new method provides continuous solutions for head, flow and velocity in both saturated and unsaturated zones without any interpolation process as is common in discrete numerical schemes. This solution efficiently generates flow pathlines and transit time distributions in hillslopes with the assumption of depth‐varying saturated hydraulic conductivity. The model outputs reveal the pronounced effect that changing the strength of the exponential decline in saturated hydraulic conductivity has on the flow pathlines, residence time and transit time distribution. This new steady‐state model may be useful to others for posing hypotheses about how different depth functions for hydraulic conductivity influence catchment hydrological response. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献