次网格坡地辐射参数化对RegCM4.1模式模拟东亚夏季气候的影响     

顾春雷  方德贤  周洋  黄安宁 《气象科学》2018,38(5):585-595

本研究将次网格坡地辐射参数化方案引入到区域气候模式(RegCM4. 1)中,并研究次网格坡地辐射参数化对RegCM4. 1模拟东亚夏季气候性能的影响。结果表明:RegCM4. 1高估了夏季青藏高原的热源作用,模拟低层偏强的西南季风导致了模拟的中国夏季降水量总体偏大。引入次网格坡地辐射参数化方案后,模式模拟的青藏高原夏季地表太阳辐射通量和长波辐射通量减小分别可达5%和12%以上,夏季减弱的青藏高原热源作用使得低层西南季风减弱,从而改善了模式对中国夏季降水的模拟;而且改善程度自东南向西北递减,在东南地区模拟夏季降水的相对均方根误差减小9%,空间相关系数和Taylor评分分别提高0. 14和0. 08。  相似文献   

Projection of the Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity Affecting East Asia over the Western North Pacific Based on Multi-RegCM4 Simulations   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Jie WU  Xuejie GAO  Yingmo ZHU  Ying SHI  Filippo GIORGI 《大气科学进展》2022,39(2):284-303

Future changes in tropical cyclone(TC)activity over the western North Pacific(WNP)under the representative concentration pathway RCP4.5 are investigated based on a set of 21 st century climate change simulations over East Asia with the regional climate model RegCM4 driven by five global models.The RegCM4 reproduces the major features of the observed TC activity over the region in the present-day period of 1986-2005,although with the underestimation of the number of TC genesis and intensity.A low number of TCs making landfall over China is also simulated.By the end of the 21st century(2079-98),the annual mean frequency of TC genesis and occurrence is projected to increase over the WNP by16%and 10%,respectively.The increase in frequency of TC occurrence is in good agreement among the simulations,with the largest increase over the ocean surrounding Taiwan Island and to the south of Japan.The TCs tend to be stronger in the future compared to the present-day period of 1986-2005,with a large increase in the frequency of strong TCs.In addition,more TCs landings are projected over most of the China coast,with an increase of~18%over the whole Chinese territory.  相似文献   

RegCM4对华北区域21世纪气候变化预估研究     

陈颖  张冬峰  王林  刘月丽  王大勇 《干旱气象》2022,40(1):1-10

利用国家气候中心完成的RegCM4区域气候模式在RCP4.5和RCP8.5两种排放路径下的气候变化动力降尺度试验结果,在检验模式对基准期(1986—2005年)气温和降水模拟能力基础上,进行华北区域21世纪气候变化预估分析。结果表明:RegCM4对华北区域基准期气温和降水的模拟能力较好。未来21世纪,两种情景下华北区域气温、降水、持续干期(consecutive dry days, CDD)和强降水量(R95p)变化逐渐增大,但变化幅度在高排放的RCP8.5情景下更为显著,其中近期(2021—2035年)、中期(2046—2065年)、远期(2080—2098年)RCP8.5情景下年平均气温分别升高1.77、3.44、5.82℃,年平均降水分别增加8.1%、14%、19.3%,CDD分别减少3、3、12 d, R95p分别增加30.8%、41.9%、69.8%。空间上,未来21世纪华北区域内年、冬季、夏季平均气温将一致升高,夏季升温幅度最大;年、冬季、夏季平均降水整体以增加为主,冬季降水增加幅度最大;CDD以减少为主,但近期和中期在山西和京津冀有所增加,而R95p以增加为主,表明21世纪华北区域干旱事件逐渐减少、极端降水事件不断增加。  相似文献   

青藏高原多雪年与少雪年土壤水热特征模拟分析     

罗江鑫  吕世华  马翠丽  方雪薇 《高原气象》2022,41(1):35-46

利用耦合了陆面过程模式(CLM4.5)的区域气候模式(RegCM4)分别对青藏高原的一个多雪年和少雪年进行了数值模拟.通过对比模拟雪深与遥感雪深、土壤温湿度的模拟值与观测值、多雪年与少雪年的土壤温湿度模拟值,结果表明,RegCM4-CLM4.5可以有效模拟出高原的多雪年与少雪年特征,模拟雪深大值中心比遥感雪深高10～2...  相似文献   

NCAR RegCM2对东亚区域气候的模拟试验   总被引：39，自引：3，他引：39  

罗勇  赵宗慈 《应用气象学报》1997,(Z1)

利用垂直、水平高分辨率的区域气候模式ＮＣＡＲＲｅｇＣＭ２（１９９６年５月最新版本）进行了１９９１年夏季（５～８月）东亚洪涝个例的区域气候数值模拟．与观测事实的比较表明，该模式能够较好地再现出该个例我国江淮流域—日本季风降水的主要时空特征和环流形势异常等．也指出了模拟结果的一些不足之处和今后的改进方向  相似文献   

Hindcast Experiment of Extraseasonal Short-Term Summer Climate Prediction over China with RegCM3_IAP9L-AGCM   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

JU Lixi  LANG Xianmei 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2011,25(3):376-385

The regional climate model RegCM3 has been one-way nested into IAP9L-AGCM,the nine-level atmospheric general circulation model of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,to perform a 20-yr(1982-2001)hindcast experiment on extraseaonal short-term prediction of China summer climate.The nested prediction system is referred to as RegCM3_IAP9L-AGCM in this paper.The results show that hindcasted climate fields such as 500-hPa geopotential height,200-and 850-hPa zonal winds from RegCM3_IAP9L-AGCM have positive anomaly correlation coefficients (ACCs) with the observations,andare better than those from the stand-alone IAP9L-AGCM.Except for the 850-hPa wind field,the positive ACCs of the other two fields with observations both pass the 90% confidence level and display a zonal distribution.The results indicate that the positive correlation of summer precipitation anomaly percentage between the nested prediction system and observations covers most parts of China except for downstream of the Yangtze River and north of Northeast and Northwest China.The nested prediction system and the IAP9L-AGCM exhibit different hindcast skills over different regions of China,and the former demonstrates a higher skill over South China than the latter in predicting the summer precipitation.  相似文献   

四川盆地夏季降水日变化的数值模拟   总被引：8，自引：1，他引：7       下载免费PDF全文

沈沛丰  张耀存 《高原气象》2011,30(4):860-868

利用区域气候模式RegCM3对1991-2004年四川盆地夏季降水进行了数值模拟,通过模拟结果和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料的对比,评估了模式对四川盆地夏季＂夜雨＂现象的模拟能力。结果表明,RegCM3模式能较好地模拟出四川盆地夏季降水的空间分布和日变化规律,四川盆地夏季＂夜雨＂现象的形成与该地区的地形分布有密切关系。...  相似文献   

RegCM4.1对中国区域气候模拟能力评估   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

吴昊旻  黄安宁  周洋  张录军 《气象科学》2015,35(1):17-25

利用中国气象局提供的1985—2004年756个台站的逐日降水和气温观测数据评估了区域气候模式(RegCM4.1)对中国地区不同季节的降水和气温的模拟性能,并结合中国的区域气候特征和气候带分布进行分区讨论。结果表明RegCM4.1能够较好地再现中国地区四季降水占全年百分比、降水率的空间分布特点以及降水带南北摆动的季节变化特征。RegCM4.1对平均气温分布模拟较好,强度和高低中心与观测事实接近,但对青藏高原地区的气温分布模拟值一致偏低。同时发现RegCM4.1能够合理再现内陆地区气温日较差明显大于沿海地区的总体分布特征,不过模拟值在新疆和沿海地区比观测结果均偏低。  相似文献   

Simulation of Effects of Grassland Degradation on Regional Climate over Sanjiangyuan Region in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

LIAN Lishu  SHU Jiong 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2009,23(3):350-362

Regional climate model （RegCM3） was applied to explore the possible effects of land use changes （e.g., grassland degradation in this study） on local and regional climate over the Sanjiangyuan region in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Two multiyear （1991-1999） numerical simulation experiments were conducted： one was a control experiment with current land use and the other was a desertification experiment with potential grassland degradation. Preliminary analysis indicated that RegCM3 is appropriate for simulating land- climate interactions, as the patterns of the simulated surface air temperature, the summer precipitation, and the geopotential height fields are consistent with the observed values. The desertification over the Sanjiangyuan region will cause different climate effects in different regions depending on the surrounding environment and climate characteristics. The area with obvious change in surface air temperature inducing by grassland degradation over the Sanjiangyuan region is located in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. A winter surface air temperature drop and the other seasons＇ surface air temperature increase will be observed over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau based on two numerical simulation experiments. Surface air temperature changes in spring are the largest （0.46℃）, and in winter are the smallest （smaller than 0.03℃）, indicating an increasing mean annual surface air temperature over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Surface air temperature changes will be smaller and more complex over the surrounding region, with minor winter changes for the regions just outside the plateau and notable summer changes over the north of the Yangtze River. The reinforced summer heat source in the plateau will lead to an intensification of heat low, causing the West Pacific subtropical high to retreat eastward. This will be followed by a decrease of precipitation in summer. The plateau＇s climate tends to become warm and dry due to the grassland degradation over the Sanjiangyuan region.  相似文献   

黑碳气溶胶对我国区域气候影响的数值模拟   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

张靖  银燕 《南京气象学院学报》2008,31(6):852-859

利用区域气候模式RegCM3模拟研究了黑碳气溶胶对我国区域气候的影响。以2000年1、4、7、10月为代表,计算分析了黑碳气溶胶的辐射强迫作用、对大气温度和降水的影响及其季节变化特征。模拟结果显示：黑碳气溶胶在大气层顶产生正的辐射强迫,在地表产生负的辐射强迫;黑碳气溶胶的加入使中国大陆地区地面温度发生明显变化,并呈现显著的季节特征,即1月大部分地区的地面温度均有升高;7月北方增温、南方降温;4月和10月地面温度的变化不明显。模拟结果也表明,黑碳气溶胶的排放使我国长江中下游等南方地区夏季降水增加,而北方部分地区降水减少。  相似文献