Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems: a flood risk change example     

Ida K. Westerberg  Keith J. Beven  Gemma Coxon  Tobias Krueger 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(Z2):1705-1713

ABSTRACT

Characterizing, understanding and better estimating uncertainties are key concerns for drawing robust conclusions when analyzing changing socio-hydrological systems. Here we suggest developing a perceptual model of uncertainty that is complementary to the perceptual model of the socio-hydrological system and we provide an example application to flood risk change analysis. Such a perceptual model aims to make all relevant uncertainty sources – and different perceptions thereof – explicit in a structured way. It is a first step to assessing uncertainty in system outcomes that can help to prioritize research efforts and to structure dialogue and communication about uncertainty in interdisciplinary work.  相似文献   

Hydrogeology and sustainable future groundwater abstraction from the Agua Verde aquifer in the Atacama Desert,northern Chile   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Javier Urrutia  Jorge Jódar  Agustín Medina  Christian Herrera  Guillermo Chong  Harry Urqueta  José A. Luque 《Hydrogeology Journal》2018,26(6):1989-2007

The hyper-arid conditions prevailing in Agua Verde aquifer in northern Chile make this system the most important water source for nearby towns and mining industries. Due to the growing demand for water in this region, recharge is investigated along with the impact of intense pumping activity in this aquifer. A conceptual model of the hydrogeological system is developed and implemented into a two-dimensional groundwater-flow numerical model. To assess the impact of climate change and groundwater extraction, several scenarios are simulated considering variations in both aquifer recharge and withdrawals. The estimated average groundwater lateral recharge from Precordillera (pre-mountain range) is about 4,482 m³/day. The scenarios that consider an increase of water withdrawal show a non-sustainable groundwater consumption leading to an over-exploitation of the resource, because the outflows surpasses inflows, causing storage depletion. The greater the depletion, the larger the impact of recharge reduction caused by the considered future climate change. This result indicates that the combined effects of such factors may have a severe impact on groundwater availability as found in other groundwater-dependent regions located in arid environments. Furthermore, the scenarios that consider a reduction of the extraction flow rate show that it may be possible to partially alleviate the damage already caused to the aquifer by the continuous extractions since 1974, and it can partially counteract climate change impacts on future groundwater availability caused by a decrease in precipitation (and so in recharge), if the desalination plant in Taltal increases its capacity.  相似文献   

Site scale modeling of slow-moving landslides,a 3D viscoplastic finite element modeling approach     

G. Bru  J.A. Fernández-Merodo  J.C. García-Davalillo  G. Herrera  J. Fernández 《Landslides》2018,15(2):257-272

This paper presents an advanced 3D numerical methodology to reproduce the kinematics of slow active landslides, more precisely, to reproduce the nearly constant strain rate (secondary creep) and the acceleration/deceleration of the moving mass due to hydrological changes. For this purpose, finite element analyses are performed in a large area covering a long time-span (12 years), in order to exhibit different interacting slope movements. First, we perform a stability analysis using the shear strength reduction (SSR) technique with a Mohr-Coulomb failure criteria. It is done in order to compute factors of safety (FS) and to identify two different scenarios, the first one being stable (FS > 1) and the second one being unstable (FS < 1). In the studied test case, the Portalet landslide (Central Spanish Pyrenees), the first scenario corresponds to an initial stable configuration of the slope and the second one to an unstable excavated configuration. Second, taking the first scenario as an initial condition, a time-dependent analysis is performed using a coupled formulation to model solid skeleton and pore fluids interaction, and a simplified ground water model that takes into account daily rainfall intensity. In this case, a viscoplastic constitutive model based on Perzyna’s theory is applied to reproduce soil viscous behavior and the delayed creep deformation due to the excavation. The fluidity parameter is calibrated to reproduce displacements measured by the monitoring systems. Our results demonstrate that 3D analyses are preferable to 2D ones for reproducing in a more realistic way the slide behavior. After calibration, the proposed model is able to simulate successfully short- and medium-term predictions during stages of primary and secondary creep.  相似文献   

Hydrological characterization of dammed rivers in the NW Mediterranean region          下载免费PDF全文

Gemma Piqué  Ramon J. Batalla  Sergi Sabater 《水文研究》2016,30(11):1691-1707

Water scarcity and climatic variability in the Mediterranean region have traditionally required the construction of dams to guarantee water supply for irrigation, industrial and urban uses and hydropower production. Reservoirs affect the hydrology of the river downstream, but the magnitude and persistence of these effects are still poorly unknown. Understanding the magnitude of these effects is the objective of this paper, in which we analyse the flow regimes of twelve rivers located in the NW Mediterranean region. Different temporal scales (daily, monthly and annual) are used for the analysis and also to estimate flow variables associated with flow magnitude, frequency, duration and variability. It is shown that dams alter the hydrological regime of most of the studied rivers, with special influence on monthly flows and flood magnitude and frequency. The most altered rivers (Muga and Siurana, NE Iberian Peninsula) experience a complete overturn in their flow regime with, for instance, flood reduction reaching up to 76% for the 2‐year flood event. Other rivers showed lower changes in hydrology (e.g. Orb and Têt). Annual runoff showed a pattern of decrease in all the studied rivers (regulated and non‐regulated) indicating that besides dams (i.e. reservoir evaporation), other factors likely affect water yield. A general recovery downstream from dams is also observed at all temporal scales, mainly because of the inflow from tributaries. Although dams have a clear impact on the hydrology of Mediterranean rivers, water withdrawals and diversions for irrigation and other consumptive uses also affected the hydrological patterns. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Understanding the fate of iron in a modern temperate estuary: Leirárvogur,Iceland     

Gemma M. Byrne  Richard H. Worden  David M. Hodgson  David A. Polya  Paul R. Lythgoe  Craig D. Barrie  Adrian J. Boyce 《Applied Geochemistry》2011

Fluvial dissolved Fe concentrations decrease upon mixing with seawater, resulting in the formation of Fe-floccules. However, a clear understanding of the fate of these floccules has yet to be established. Assessing how tidal processes affect the formation of Fe-colloids in the Leirárvogur estuary, SW Iceland, is an important step in understanding the formation and potential deposition of estuarine Fe-rich minerals within this estuarine system. The Leirárvogur estuary drains predominately Fe-rich basalt, increasing the likelihood of detecting changes in Fe-phases. Fluvial waters and local lake waters that drain into the estuary were compared and the effects of seasonal changes were considered, in an attempt to understand how varying end-members and external factors play a role in Fe-rich mineral formation. Aqueous and colloidal Fe concentrations were found to be greater towards the head of the Leirárvogur estuary, suggesting that potential Fe-rich minerals and complexes are forming at sites of fluvial input. Increasing suspended colloidal Fe towards the estuary mouth suggests that Fe-colloids are readily transported seaward.  相似文献   

Growth and grazing rate dynamics of major phytoplankton groups in an oligotrophic coastal site   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Andrés Gutiérrez-Rodríguez  Mikel Latasa  Renate Scharek  Ramon Massana  Gemma Vila  Josep M. Gasol 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2011

There has been more attention to phytoplankton dynamics in nutrient-rich waters than in oligotrophic ones thus requiring the need to study the dynamics and responses in oligotrophic waters. Accordingly, phytoplankton community in Blanes Bay was overall dominated by Prymnesiophyceae, remarkably constant throughout the year (31 ± 13% Total chlorophyll a, Tchl a) and Bacillariophyta with a more episodic appearance (20 ± 23% Tchl a). Prasinophyceae and Synechococcus contribution became substantial in winter (Prasinophyceae = 30% Tchl a) and summer (Synechococcus = 35% Tchl a). Phytoplankton growth and grazing mortality rates for major groups were estimated by dilution experiments in combination with high pressure liquid chromatography and flow cytometry carried out monthly over two years. Growth rates of total phytoplankton (range = 0.30–1.91 d⁻¹) were significantly higher in spring and summer (μ > 1.3 d⁻¹) than in autumn and winter (μ ∼ 0.65 d⁻¹) and showed a weak dependence on temperature but a significant positive correlation with day length. Microzooplankton grazing (range = 0.03–1.4 d⁻¹) was closely coupled to phytoplankton growth. Grazing represented the main process for loss of phytoplankton, removing 60 ± 34% (±SD) of daily primary production and 70 ± 48% of Tchl a stock. Chla synthesis was highest during the Bacillarophyceae-dominated spring bloom (Chl a_synt = 2.3 ± 1.6 μg Chl a L⁻¹ d⁻¹) and lowest during the following post-bloom conditions dominated by Prymnesiophyceae (Chl a_synt = 0.23 ± 0.08 μg Chl a L⁻¹ d⁻¹). This variability was smoothed when expressed in carbon equivalents mainly due to the opposite dynamics of C:chl a (range = 11–135) and chl a concentration (range = 0.07–2.0 μg chl a L⁻¹). Bacillariophyta and Synechococcus contribution to C fluxes was higher than to biomass because of their fast-growth rate. The opposite was true for Prymnesiophyceae.  相似文献   

Growth and feeding patterns of European anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) early life stages in the Aegean Sea (NE Mediterranean)     

Ignacio A. Catalán  Arild Folkvord  Isabel Palomera  Gemma Quílez-Badía  Fotini Kallianoti  Anastasios Tselepides  Argyris Kallianotis 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2010

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Adsorption of Arsenite from Groundwater Using Titanium Dioxide          下载免费PDF全文

Miriam Z. López Paraguay  José Apolinar Cortes  Juan F. Pérez‐Robles  María T. Alarcón‐Herrera 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2014,42(6):713-721

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Tracing seafloor methane emissions with benthic foraminifera: Results from the Ana submarine landslide (Eivissa Channel,Western Mediterranean Sea)     

Giuliana Panieri  Angelo Camerlenghi  Isabel Cacho  Cristina Sanchez Cervera  Miquel Canals  Sara Lafuerza  Gemma Herrera 《Marine Geology》2012

The hypothesis that benthic foraminifera are useful proxies of local methane emissions from the seafloor has been verified on sediment core KS16 from the headwall of the Ana submarine landslide in the Eivissa Channel, Western Mediterranean Sea. The core MS312 from a nearby location with no known methane emissions is utilised as control. The core was analysed for biostratigraphy, benthic foraminiferal assemblages, Hyalinea balthica and Uvigerina peregrina carbon and oxygen stable isotope composition, and sedimentary structures. The upper part of the core records post-landslide deglacial and Holocene normal marine hemipelagic sediments with highly abundant benthic foraminifera species that are typical of outer neritic to upper bathyal environment. In this interval, the δ¹³C composition of benthic foraminifera indicates normal marine environment analogous to those found in the control core. Below the sedimentary hiatus caused by the emplacement of the slide, the foraminiferal assemblages are characterised by lower density and higher Shannon Index. Markedly negative δ¹³C shifts in benthic foraminifera are attributed to the release of methane through the seabed. The mean values of the ¹³C anomaly in U. peregrina are ? 0.951 ± 0.208 in the pre-landslide sediments, and ? 0.269 ± 0.152 in post-slide reworked sediments deposited immediately above the hiatus. The δ¹³C anomaly in Hyalinea balthica is ? 2.497 ± 0.080 and ? 2.153 ± 0.087, respectively. To discard the diagenetic effects on the δ¹³C anomaly, which could have been induced by Ca–Mg replacement and authigenic carbonate overgrowth on foraminifera tests, a benthic foraminifera subsample has been treated following an oxidative and reductive cleaning protocol. The cleaning has resulted, only in some cases, in a slight reduction of the anomaly by 0.95% for δ¹³C and < 0.80% for δ¹⁸O. Therefore, the first conclusion is that the diagenetic alteration is minor and it does not alter significantly the overall carbon isotopic anomaly in the core. Consequently, the pre-landslide sediments have been subject to pervasive methane emissions during a time interval of several thousand years. Methane emissions continued during and immediately after the occurrence of Ana Slide at about 61.5 ka. Subsequently, methane emissions decreased and definitely ceased during the last deglaciation and the Holocene.  相似文献   

New seismo-stratigraphic and marine magnetic data of the Gulf of Pozzuoli (Naples Bay, Tyrrhenian Sea, Italy): inferences for the tectonic and magmatic events of the Phlegrean Fields volcanic complex (Campania)     

Gemma Aiello  Ennio Marsella  Vincenzo Di Fiore 《Marine Geophysical Researches》2012,33(2):97-125

A detailed reconstruction of the stratigraphic and tectonic setting of the Gulf of Pozzuoli (Naples Bay) is provided on the basis of newly acquired single channel seismic profiles coupled with already recorded marine magnetics gathering the volcanic nature of some seismic units. Inferences for the tectonic and magmatic setting of the Phlegrean Fields volcanic complex, a volcanic district surrounding the western part of the Gulf of Naples, where volcanism has been active since at least 50 ka, are also discussed. The Gulf of Pozzuoli represents the submerged border of the Phlegrean caldera, resulting from the volcano-tectonic collapse induced from the pyroclastic flow deposits of the Campanian Ignimbrite (35 ka). Several morpho-depositional units have been identified, i.e., the inner continental shelf, the central basin, the submerged volcanic banks and the outer continental shelf. The stratigraphic relationships between the Quaternary volcanic units related to the offshore caldera border and the overlying deposits of the Late Quaternary depositional sequence in the Gulf of Pozzuoli have been highlighted. Fourteen main seismic units, both volcanic and sedimentary, tectonically controlled due to contemporaneous folding and normal faulting have been revealed by geological interpretation. Volcanic dykes, characterized by acoustically transparent sub-vertical bodies, locally bounded by normal faults, testify to the magma uprising in correspondence with extensional structures. A large field of tuff cones interlayered with marine deposits off the island of Nisida, on the western rim of the gulf, is related to the emplacement of the Neapolitan Yellow Tuff deposits. A thick volcanic unit, exposed over a large area off the Capo Miseno volcanic edifice is connected with the Bacoli-Isola Pennata-Capo Miseno yellow tuffs, cropping out in the northern Phlegrean Fields.  相似文献