Operation of two major reservoirs of Iran under IPCC scenarios during the XXI century          下载免费PDF全文

Habib Akbari‐Alashti  Andrea Soncini  Yagob Dinpashoh  Ahmad Fakheri‐Fard  Siamak Talatahari  Daniele Bocchiola 《水文研究》2018,32(21):3254-3271

We assess the effects of prospective climate change until 2100 on water management of two major reservoirs of Iran, namely, Dez (3.34 × 10⁹ m³) and Alavian (6 × 10⁷ m³). We tune the Poly‐Hydro model suited for simulation of hydrological cycle in high altitude snow‐fed catchments. We assess optimal operation rules (ORs) for the reservoirs using three algorithms under dynamic and static operation and linear and non‐linear decision rules during control run (1990–2010 for Dez and 2000–2010 for Alavian). We use projected climate scenarios (plus statistical downscaling) from three general circulation models, EC‐Earth, CCSM4, and ECHAM6, and three emission scenarios, or representative concentration pathways (RCPs), RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, for a grand total of nine scenarios, to mimic evolution of the hydrological cycle under future climate until 2100. We subsequently test the ORs under the future hydrological scenarios (at half century and end of century) and the need for reoptimization. Poly‐Hydro model when benchmarked against historical data well mimics the hydrological budget of both catchments, including the main processes of evapotranspiration and streamflows. Teaching–learning‐based optimization delivers the best performance in both reservoirs according to objective scores and is used for future operation. Our projections in Dez catchment depict decreased precipitation along the XXI century, with ?1% on average (of the nine scenarios) at half century and ?6% at the end of century, with changes in streamflows on average ?7% yearly and ?13% yearly, respectively. In Alavian, precipitation would decrease by ?10% on average at half century and ?13% at the end of century, with streamflows ?14% yearly and ?18% yearly, respectively. Under the projected future hydrology, reservoirs' operation would provide lower performance (i.e., larger lack of water) than now, especially for Alavian dam. Our results provide evidence of potentially decreasing water availability and less effective water management in water stressed areas like Northern Iran here during this century.  相似文献   

Evaluating evapotranspiration using data mining instead of physical-based model in remote sensing     

Neissi  Lamya  Golabi  Mona  Albaji  Mohammad  Naseri  Abd Ali 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2022,147(1-2):701-716

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Precise calculations for determining the water requirements of plants and the extent of evapotranspiration are crucial in determining the volume of water...  相似文献   

Glacial and environmental changes over the last 60 000 years in the Polar Ural Mountains,Arctic Russia,inferred from a high‐resolution lake record and other observations from adjacent areas     

John Inge Svendsen  Lars Martin B. Frseth  Richard Gyllencreutz  Haflidi Haflidason  Mona Henriksen  Morten N. Hovland   ystein S. Lohne  Jan Mangerud  Dmitry Nazarov  Carl Regnll  Joerg M. Schaefer 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2019,48(2):407-431

Our knowledge about the glaciation history in the Russian Arctic has to a large extent been based on geomorphological mapping supplemented by studies of short stratigraphical sequences found in exposed sections. Here we present new geochronological data from the Polar Ural Mountains along with a high‐resolution sediment record from Bolshoye Shchuchye, the largest and deepest lake in the mountain range. Seismic profiles show that the lake contains a 160‐m‐thick sequence of unconsolidated lacustrine sediments. A well‐dated 24‐m‐long core from the southern end of the lake spans the last 24 cal. ka. From downward extrapolation of sedimentation rates we estimate that sedimentation started about 50–60 ka ago, most likely just after a large glacier had eroded older sediments from the basin. Terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide (TCN) exposure dating (¹⁰Be) of boulders and Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) dating of sediments indicate that this part of the Ural Mountains was last covered by a coherent ice‐field complex during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 4. A regrowth of the glaciers took place during a late stage of MIS 3, but the central valleys remained ice free until the present. The presence of small‐ and medium‐sized glaciers during MIS 2 is reflected by a sequence of glacial varves and a high sedimentation rate in the lake basin and likewise from ¹⁰Be dating of glacial boulders. The maximum extent of the mountain glaciers during MIS 2 was attained prior to 24 cal. ka BP. Some small present‐day glaciers, which are now disappearing completely due to climate warming, were only slightly larger during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) as compared to AD 1953. A marked decrease in sedimentation rate around 18–17 cal. ka BP indicates that the glaciers then became smaller and probably disappeared altogether around 15–14 cal. ka BP.  相似文献   

Spatiotemporal relation of RADAR-derived land subsidence with groundwater and seismicity in Semnan—Iran     

Koohbanani  Hamidreza  Yazdani  Mohammadreza  Hosseini  Sayyed Keivan 《Natural Hazards》2020,103(1):785-798

Natural Hazards - Due to excessive harvesting of underground water resources in many important aquifers inside Iran, ground subsidence is occurring at different speeds. In present study, InSAR...  相似文献   

The Allende multicompound chondrule (ACC)—Chondrule formation in a local super‐dense region of the early solar system          下载免费PDF全文

Addi Bischoff  Gerhard Wurm  Marc Chaussidon  Marian Horstmann  Knut Metzler  Mona Weyrauch  Julia Weinauer 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2017,52(5):906-924

In Allende, a very complex compound chondrule (Allende compound chondrule; ACC) was found consisting of at least 16 subchondrules (14 siblings and 2 independents). Its overall texture can roughly be described as a barred olivine object (BO). The BO texture is similar in all siblings, but does not exist in the two independents, which appear as relatively compact olivine‐rich units. Because of secondary alteration of pristine Allende components and the ACC in particular, only limited predictions can be made concerning the original compositions of the colliding melt droplets. Based on textural and mineralogical characteristics, the siblings must have been formed on a very short time scale in a dense, local environment. This is also supported by oxygen isotope systematics showing similar compositions for all 16 subchondrules. Furthermore, the ACC subchondrules are isotopically distinct from typical Allende chondrules, indicating formation in or reaction with a more ¹⁶O‐poor reservoir. We modeled constraints on the particle density required at the ACC formation location, using textural, mineral‐chemical, and isotopic observations on this multicompound chondrule to define melt droplet collision conditions. In this context, we discuss the possible relationship between the formation of complex chondrules and the formation of macrochondrules and cluster chondrites. While macrochondrules may have formed under similar or related conditions as complex chondrules, cluster chondrites certainly require different formation conditions. Cluster chondrites represent a mixture of viscously deformed, seemingly young chondrules of different chemical and textural types and a population of older chondrules. Concerning the formation of ACC calculations suggest the existence of very local, kilometer‐sized, and super‐dense chondrule‐forming regions with extremely high solid‐to‐gas mass ratios of 1000 or more.  相似文献   

Deriving effects of pressure depletion on elastic framework moduli from sonic logs     

Anne-Kari Furre  Mona Andersen  Anita Smalø Moen  Randi Kristin Tønnessen 《Geophysical Prospecting》2009,57(3):427-437

We have developed a method to determine the effect of pore pressure depletion on elastic framework moduli, by utilizing sonic logs from wells drilled at different locations through a reservoir at varying depletion stages. This is done by first inverting the sonic logs for elastic framework bulk and shear moduli, thus carefully removing pressure dependent fluid effects. By crossplotting these elastic framework moduli against an increase in net stress (which is directly related to depletion), we derive the stress sensitivity of the elastic framework moduli. We found that the observed stress sensitivity was consistent with time-lapse seismic results and that the sensitivity derived from the sonic logs was much smaller than predicted by hydrostatic measurements on core samples. This method is applicable to depletion scenarios in mature fields and can be used both for modelling and inverting time-lapse seismic data for effects of pore pressure depletion on seismic data.  相似文献   

Analysis of symbiotic Symbiodinium in scleractinian corals off Northwestern Kish Island,Persian Gulf          下载免费PDF全文

Amirhossein Gheitanchi Mashini  Mona Fard Yazdani  Pargol Ghavam Mostafavi  Mohammad Hassan Shahhosseiny 《Marine Ecology》2017,38(2)

The genus Symbiodinium plays an essential role in the resistance and survival of reef‐building corals during temperature anomalies. Coral colonies inhabiting the Persian Gulf (PG) experience extended periods of different stresses. Kish Island is located in the harsh environment of the Northern PG with previously reported bleaching episodes. Samples of six coral species from Northwestern Kish Island were analysed by internal transcribed spacer 2 of ribosomal DNA to identify in hospite Symbiodinium populations. The results showed that lineage D of Symbiodinium was the most prevalent clade among different coral colonies, while clade C was only detected in symbiosis with a single coral species. However, the detected Symbiodinium subclades belonged to two host generalists. The predominance of the stress tolerant Symbiodinium trenchii and subclade C3 could suggest an acclimatization strategy to cope with the hostile environment of the PG.  相似文献   

Structural elements of the Makran region, Oman sea and their potential relevance to tsunamigenisis     

Mohammad Mokhtari  Iraj Abdollahie Fard  Khaled Hessami 《Natural Hazards》2008,47(2):185-199

The character of convergence along the Arabian–Iranian plate boundary changes radically eastward from the Zagros ranges to the Makran region. This appears to be due to collision of continental crust in the west, in contrast to subduction of oceanic crust in the east. The Makran subduction zone with a length of about 900 km display progressively older and highly deformed sedimentary units northward from the coast, together with an increase in elevation of the ranges. North of the Makran ranges are large subsiding basins, flanked to the north by active volcanoes. Based on 2D seismic reflection data obtained in this study, the main structural provinces and elements in the Gulf of Oman include: (i) the structural elements on the northeastern part of the Arabian Plate and, (ii) the Offshore Makran Accretionary Complex. Based on detailed analysis of these data on the northeastern part of the Arabian Plate five structural provinces and elements—the Musendam High, the Musendam Peneplain, the Musendam Slope, the Dibba Zone, and the Abyssal Plain have been identified. Further, the Offshore Makran Accretionary Complex shown is to consist Accretionary Prism and the For-Arc Basin, while the Accretionary Prism has been subdivided into the Accretionary Wedge and the Accreted/Colored Mélange. Lastly, it is important to note that the Makran subduction zone lacks the trench. The identification of these structural elements should help in better understanding the seismicity of the Makran region in general and the subduction zone in particular. The 1945 magnitude 8.1 tsunamigenic earthquake of the Makran and some other historical events are illustrative of the coastal region’s vulnerability to future tsunami in the area, and such data should be of value to the developing Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System.  相似文献   

Modeling and assessing the effects of land use changes on runoff generation with the CLUE-s and WetSpa models     

Mohammady  Majid  Moradi  Hamid Reza  Zeinivand  Hossein  Temme  A.J.A.M.  Yazdani  Mohammad Reza  Pourghasemi  Hamid Reza 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2018,133(1-2):459-471

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Land use change is an important determinant of hydrological processes and is known to affect hydrological parameters such as runoff volume, flood frequency,...  相似文献   

Sensitivity analysis for the GALDIT method based on the assessment of vulnerability to pollution in the northern Sfax coastal aquifer,Tunisia   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Mona?GontaraEmail author  Nabila?Allouche  Ikram?Jmal  Salelm?Bouri 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2016,9(5):416

Coastal aquifer of northern Sfax (Tunisia) suffers from the high risk to seawater intrusion and the water quality degradation due to the overexploitation. Hence, assessing the study area vulnerability to pollution is highly crucial so as to protect the groundwater resources. The assessment has been performed by applying the GALDIT method using Geographic Information System (GIS) software and multi-criteria evaluation techniques, and the sensitivity analysis approach to evaluate the effect of each GALDIT parameter on the vulnerability assessment. The GALDIT vulnerability map classifies the study area into three vulnerability classes: low vulnerability (30–50), moderate vulnerability (50–70), and high vulnerability (70–90), which represent 5, 30, and 65 % of the study area, respectively. The map illustrates that the coastal zones of the aquifer are the most threatened areas. The sensitivity analysis results show that the aquifer hydraulic conductivity (A) and the thickness of the aquifer (T) represent the determining factors in the modified vulnerability model. The real weight was used to elaborate the modified GALDIT model which was correlated with resistivity values for validation. This study could serve as a scientific basis for sustainable land planning and groundwater management in the study area.  相似文献